The Presidency of America's Maverick

[OSR stands with Israel]

2006 Prediction Contest Winner : АndriуValeriovich

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Any of you have any other ideas for names just post them here

[Sumner 1868]

Going Rogue: The White House Years

[😥]

American Renewal: The McCain Administration

[President Biden Democrat]

This is going to be very interesting! I'm assuming McCain responds to 9/11 in a similar way to Bush, as McCain was a war-hock. Maybe his response is even more intense compared to Bush's. Looking forward to it!

[UWS]

This is going to be very interesting! I'm assuming McCain responds to 9/11 in a similar way to Bush, as McCain was a war-hock. Maybe his response is even more intense compared to Bush's. Looking forward to it!

And he has more foreign policy experience.

[One Term Floridian]

People often underestimate how much this primary could have affected state trends moving forward.

I think in this timeline, Al Gore should do a lot better in states like WV, MO, AR & TN without Karl Rove's culture war and W's "compassionate conservatism" rhetoric. However, at the same time McCain should be able to win by doing better in states like MN, MI, PA, NM, OR, VT & WA with his maverick image.

Something like this wouldn't surprise me:

McCain wins 279-259, with MO, MN & AR being the closest states. McCain probably wins the popular vote by around the same that Gore did IRL

Imo McCain would pick a Midwesterner and Gore would pick someone other than Lieberman in this TL

[Roll Roons]

People often underestimate how much this primary could have affected state trends moving forward.

I think in this timeline, Al Gore should do a lot better in states like WV, MO, AR & TN without Karl Rove's culture war and W's "compassionate conservatism" rhetoric. However, at the same time McCain should be able to win by doing better in states like MN, MI, PA, NM, OR, VT & WA with his maverick image.

Something like this wouldn't surprise me:

McCain wins 279-259, with MO, MN & AR being the closest states. McCain probably wins the popular vote by around the same that Gore did IRL

Imo McCain would pick a Midwesterner and Gore would pick someone other than Lieberman in this TL

Yeah, I think McCain was a better fit than Bush for the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest, while being worse fit for Southern evangelicals. In terms of Senate races, I would also expect Republicans to hold MI and WA and gain NJ.

[UWS]

People often underestimate how much this primary could have affected state trends moving forward.

I think in this timeline, Al Gore should do a lot better in states like WV, MO, AR & TN without Karl Rove's culture war and W's "compassionate conservatism" rhetoric. However, at the same time McCain should be able to win by doing better in states like MN, MI, PA, NM, OR, VT & WA with his maverick image.

Something like this wouldn't surprise me:

McCain wins 279-259, with MO, MN & AR being the closest states. McCain probably wins the popular vote by around the same that Gore did IRL

Imo McCain would pick a Midwesterner and Gore would pick someone other than Lieberman in this TL

Yeah, I think McCain was a better fit than Bush for the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest, while being worse fit for Southern evangelicals. In terms of Senate races, I would also expect Republicans to hold MI and WA and gain NJ.

McCain would also be doing much better in New York, perhaps polling around mid-40s of percentage points. In effect, a poll before Super Tuesday 2000 that includes the New York primary, a poll was showing McCain trailing Gore in the state of New York by just 1 and that same poll even showed McCain beating Bill Bradley by 5 in New York.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#General_election

[President Johnson]

Great stuff! Go on!

[One Term Floridian]

Yeah good catch. I highly doubt Gore would be winning by over 60% in NY against McCain (should have fixed that to 50% shading), but he would still be winning the state by double digits. Those polls were probably taken at the height of McCain's upset wins during the primary and the extended media exposure that came with them. This was also probably the time when Gore was down by a considerable amount against W in the polls.

[darklordoftech]

This is going to be very interesting! I'm assuming McCain responds to 9/11 in a similar way to Bush, as McCain was a war-hock. Maybe his response is even more intense compared to Bush's. Looking forward to it!

McCain would conduct the Afghanistan War very differently. More ground forces, send troops into Tora Bora, etc.

[OSR stands with Israel]

McCain Shocks Political World With Decisive Win in New Hampshire setting up critical primary fight in South Carolina




Judy Woodruff: Tonight Arizona Senator John McCain shocked the political world with his decisive 18 point victory over the Republican frontrunner up until this point and the establishment favorite, Texas Governor George W Bush. Now this very much could give Senator McCain the momentum to contest South Carolina and potentially win it

Bill Schneider: It absolutely can Judy as it now the race will be a two man race between Governor Bush and Senator McCain and momentum from this victory will result in increased enthusiasm, more cash and could result in an upset win for Senator McCain in South Carolina which then would in my guess make Senator McCain the frontrunner going into Super Tuesday.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Nice! Looking forward to it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope all of you enjoy this TL

[UWS]

Excellent

I guess McCain might convince SC's pro-life evangelical voters by mentioning his adoption of his adopted daughter from Bangldesh Bridget McCain to show how much adoption is an alternative to abortion.

[darklordoftech]

I guess McCain might convince SC's pro-life evangelical voters by mentioning his adoption of his adopted daughter from Bangldesh Bridget McCain to show how much adoption is an alternative to abortion.

Or maybe Bush “swiftboating” McCain backfires.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: Bush Admits to DUI Conviction from 1976 just 3 days before South Carolina primary



Shaw: After a revelation that Texas Governor George W Bush was convicted for a DUI in 1976, the Governor admitted to the revelation but talked about how he is a changed man and how he abandoned drinking and talked about how he has been sober since 1986. This though along with a lackluster debate performance by the Texas Governor and the decisive loss could cost him, South Carolina, as a recent poll from yesterday just shows him up 4 points here, 45-41.


Woodruff: This along with the fact that Governor Bush had to disavow any knowledge of racist push polls done in an attempt to smear Senator McCain in the debate really has led many Republican voters to question if the Texas Governor would fare well in a general election or not .


Shaw: Yes that number has dropped already by more than 10 points and might drop even further while Senator John McCain's number just keeps going up which could give him the edge with undecided voters and maybe even lean voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

John McCain becomes new Republican Frontrunner after victory in South Carolina:



Greenfield: We can now make a projection in the South Carolina Republican Primaries and that is that Arizona Senator John McCain will defeat Texas Governor Bush by around 5 points in the primary and we estimate will win 31 of the 37 delegates awarded tonight. This will mean he will now have the delegate lead as we can show you on our primary board

Arizona Senator John McCain 42 Delegates
Texas Governor George W Bush 33 Delegates
Others 16 Delegates


Schnider: Yes and with a winner take all contest taking in Arizona Senator McCain , a contest in Michigan which title its delegates to the winner is now led by Senator McCain and another winner take all in Virginia which is tied its conceivable Senator McCain could lead the delegate county by over a 100 before super Tuesday even starts which will be hard to make up. So while this primary is not over its clear Senator McCain is now the new frontrunner in this race

[Orwell]

When McCain gets the nomination he'll need someone to shore up the right wing, I see that being Kit Bond most likely or someone from the Southeast. I could also see Chuck Robb being reelected in this scenario since McCain will struggle to turnout rural conservatives in a state like Virginia, and I think Robb could make a run in 2004.

[OSR stands with Israel]

McCain expands delegate lead to over 100 in contests leading up to Super Tuesday

Shaw: With Super Tuesday quickly approaching us lets look at the results from primaries since South Carolina as we head for Super Tuesday Tommorow

Contests Won By Senator McCain:

Arizona: McCain 67.1% 30 Delegates Bush 29.8%
Michigan: McCain 57.1% 55 Delegates Bush 38.8% 3 Delegates
Virginia: McCain 48.7% 56 Delegates Bush 47.6%
Washington(Primary): McCain 53.2% 7 Delegates Bush 44.1% 5 Delegates

Contests Won By Governor Bush:

Puerto Rico: Bush 80.3% 14 Delegates McCain 19.4%
North Dakota:  Bush 67.5% 13 Delegates McCain 22.3% 5 Delegates

Delegate Map:

Arizona Senator John McCain 195 Delegates
Texas Governor George W Bush 68 Delegates
Others 17 Delegates


Shaw: The reason we haven't colored Washington in is cause Washington used both a primary and caucus and more delegates are allocated through their caucus so we wont color that state in till the results from the caucus are in and we will color in whoever won the greater of combined delegates in the two. Anyway the results do put Senator McCain in the drivers lead and if he continues the momentum he could take an insurmountable lead tommorow


Woodruff: Yes he can currently Senator McCain leads our latest polls in California by 5 points which is a winner take all state , New York by 7 which allocated hybrid, is tied in Ohio so yes if those polls hold he very much could take an insurmountable lead.


Greenfield: That is correct say the polls are correct and Senator McCain is able to take an over 300 delegate lead tomorrow, than that means that Texas and Florida two states Governor Bush is expected to win big still wouldnt be able to pull within a 100 delegates. So really if Senator McCain takes a 300 delegate lead tomorrow this primary could be realistically over

[UWS]

What about Missouri? It was also one of the big price states on Super Tuesday that year, I guess, with its 35 delegates.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What about Missouri? It was also one of the big price states on Super Tuesday that year, I guess, with its 35 delegates.

It is pretty big but California, New York and Ohio are considered the Big 3 in Super Tuesday due to how many delegates they have   but  Missouri is classified as advantage to Bush .

[OSR stands with Israel]

McCain the big winner on Super Tuesday with wins in the Big 3 and 6 other contests. Bush will not drop out of race saying things arent over until they are over:



Schneider: Well we are now able to project that Senator McCain will be the winner in California and due to its winner of all status will take all of its 162 Delegates. Now lets go over to Jeff Greenfield at the delegate math zone and first see how things went tonight

Greenfield: Yes first lets look at the contests won by Senator John McCain and the states will be in the order they closed their polls

Contests won By Senator John McCain:


Vermont: McCain 68.2% 12 Delegates Bush 29.1%
Ohio: McCain 53.4% 48 Delegates Bush 44.3% 21 Delegates  
Connecticut: McCain 59.5% 25 Delegates Bush 38.1%
Maine: McCain 57.9% 14 Delegates Bush 40.2%
Maryland: McCain 47.1% 31 Delegates Bush 45.9%
Massachusetts: McCain 71.1% 37 Delegates Bush 27.3%
New York: McCain 54.6% 71 Delegates Bush 44.8% 22 Delegates
Rhode Island: McCain 65.2% 14 Delegates Bush 32.7%
California: McCain 51.3% 162 Delegates  Bush 46.6%

Greenfield: Now lets go over the states won by Governor Bush:

Contests won by Governor Bush:

Georgia: Bush 53.4% 67 Delegates McCain 45.1%
Missouri: Bush 50.1% 35 Delegates  McCain 46.7%
Minnesota: Bush 56% 34 Delegates McCain 27%
Washinngton Caucus: Bush 62.1% 16 Delegates McCain 33.1% 9 Delegates

Arizona Senator John McCain 618 Delegates
Texas Governor George W Bush 263 Delegates
Others 17 Delegates

Greenfield: So Senator McCain thanks to narrow wins in places like California and even a surprise win in a place like Maryland now has a 355 Delegate lead over Governor Bush but despite that we are told Governor Bush wont drop out saying he will fight on

Schinder: Well yes but in my opinion it will be very difficult to do that as McCain as rode as like what he calls the Big MO to win in state after state and remember states like Marlyand before South Carolina were considered almost Safe Bush but his upset win in South Carolina along with questions being raised about Governor Bush's electability has resulted in the tables being turned almost completely so can Governor Bush do anything to turn them back

Greenfield: Well its very hard for me to see that and while Texas is a huge state its not a winner take all state and only 34 of the 124 delegates are winner take all while the other 90 or done district by district but even if Governor Bush sweeps every district and takes all 124 delegates , Texas and Florida will only net him 204 delegates meaning he still is down 151 Delegates and with almost no big state really left on the map really favoring Governor Bush its hard to see how he can make that up especially with the fact that Pennsylvania a state which we can now say favors Senator McCain with his wins in less favorable New York and Ohio tonight and with Governor Ridge endorsing him tonight meaning the gap really is 229 Delegates. So really in my opinion this is all but over

[UWS]

Before Pennsylvania, there is also Illinois primary on March 21 that should likely favor McCain, especially in the Collar counties, including Chicago. After he won NY and CA, he surely proved his strength in states with big urban population, including Illinois with Chicago. In that state, I would see McCain being endorsed by Senator Peter Fitzgerald and Governor George Ryan.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/timeline.php?year=2000&f=0&off=0&elect=2