How badly does the upcoming midterms look for democrats compared to past midterms

[Calthrina950]

As bad or worse than 1994/2010, in terms of raw margins. And no, that is not "total hackery". Biden's approval this far out is worse than any Dem incumbent president in recent history. Only Bush in 2006 was worse. Because of geographic polarization and Dems getting nearly everything they want in redistricting though, the gains in the House may be more limited than the numbers suggest. But any seat that is Biden +10 or less, expect GOP gains in the vast majority of them. Even Republicans can't screw this up if things don't improve for Dems.

It's total hackery to think that the Dems are gonna have a worse year this year than 2010 or 1994, sorry. In order for that to be realized, the GOP would have to win seats like Jennifer Wexton's and Julia Brownley's. It's not happening lol. Look at the Sabato guide to them winning 35 seats. It's only barely even possible, given the maps we have now, and to net more seats than 2010 or 1994, or even Dems in 2006 or 2018, the GOP has to win all 35 of those seats, lose none, and gain a few more shockers. It's not happening.

There is more in common between these two posts than would be apparent at first glance. I think it's fair to say that the Republicans will certainly make substantial gains, enough to regain control of both Houses of Congress, but that such gains will not be on the level of 1994 or 2010. Gerrymandering, polarization, and demographic trends all will have an effect on the results, and will limit the extent of the gains made by Republicans. They will also determine where the gains are made.

I expect for Republicans to flip most, if not all, remaining Trump-Democratic districts, to maintain their hold on Biden-Republican districts, and to win the majority of districts where Biden won by single-digits. This alone would be enough to gain them the majority, given how narrow the Democratic advantage is now. They will also probably win a few 1994, 2006, or 2018-style upsets in some double-digit Biden districts (such as some in Colorado and Connecticut) that will flip back in 2024.