How badly does the upcoming midterms look for democrats compared to past midterms

[OSR stands with Israel]

What was the worst

[dw93]

2010 for the Democrats for sure. 2022 doesn't look great for them, but I don't see it being 2010 or 1994 2.0 either.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2010 for the Democrats for sure. 2022 doesn't look great for them, but I don't see it being 2010 or 1994 2.0 either.

Did 1994 look bad in January though as it seems like things collapsed for the democrats during the summer and the same in 2014 . Republicans in 2006 seemed to be the favorites to hold the house  according to the pundits till May

[dw93]

2010 for the Democrats for sure. 2022 doesn't look great for them, but I don't see it being 2010 or 1994 2.0 either.

Did 1994 look bad in January though as it seems like things collapsed for the democrats during the summer and the same in 2014 . Republicans in 2006 seemed to be the favorites to hold the house  according to the pundits till May

I remember finding coverage of 1994 on Youtube a few years back and it seemed like the consensus was that the GOP was gonna take the Senate, the shock was them taking the House. Anyone alive and old enough to remember that midterm (I was 1 at the time, lmao) feel free to chime in.

[Matty]

2010 dems because there were so many low hanging fruit districts

[kwabbit]

The GCB might turn out worse for the Democrats than either 2010 or 2014, but the GOP can’t pick up 60 seats unless it’s R+15 which is is obviously not going to happen. I think the Democrats might end up with less House seats than 2014, which I believe was 188, but the Democrats have succeeded well enough in gerrymandering/redistricting where they’ll likely exceed this.

The environment looks worse than either year. Biden is more unpopular than Obama was and the GCB has turned against the Dems more quickly than it did in those years. There might be a consolidation of support for Biden as there was with Trump, but we don’t know what will happen yet. Unpopularity may peak in the winter before the midterm nowadays rather than the fall of the midterm as occurred historically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Prez Approvals don't matter that much in Midterms and Rs aren't winning 50 seats like in 2010 we had 255 D's way more D's in red districts than we do now with 223/215


It's still early polls in Jan don't mean much until Aug, every wave began in Aug not Jan we won 40 seats in Oct in 2018, and it's not R plus 13 on GCB it's D's plus 1

[MATTROSE94]

Probably more like how 1894 was for the Democrats or how 1930 or 1932 was for the Republicans.

[coloradocowboi]

It's total hackery to think that the Dems are gonna have a worse year this year than 2010 or 1994, sorry. In order for that to be realized, the GOP would have to win seats like Jennifer Wexton's and Julia Brownley's. It's not happening lol. Look at the Sabato guide to them winning 35 seats. It's only barely even possible, given the maps we have now, and to net more seats than 2010 or 1994, or even Dems in 2006 or 2018, the GOP has to win all 35 of those seats, lose none, and gain a few more shockers. It's not happening.

[ElectionsGuy]

As bad or worse than 1994/2010, in terms of raw margins. And no, that is not "total hackery". Biden's approval this far out is worse than any Dem incumbent president in recent history. Only Bush in 2006 was worse. Because of geographic polarization and Dems getting nearly everything they want in redistricting though, the gains in the House may be more limited than the numbers suggest. But any seat that is Biden +10 or less, expect GOP gains in the vast majority of them. Even Republicans can't screw this up if things don't improve for Dems.

[Lemmiwinks]

It looks worse for them now than it did in January 2010 or 2014, but I also don't see it changing much between now and November, so them having as bad of a year is unlikely.

[Xing]

Comparable to 2010. Doubt it gets worse in terms of the GCB, since I do think that there's a floor for them and it's at least a bit higher than it used to be, but the results could look worse due to Republicans having a bigger electoral advantage compared to the PV.

[Calthrina950]

As bad or worse than 1994/2010, in terms of raw margins. And no, that is not "total hackery". Biden's approval this far out is worse than any Dem incumbent president in recent history. Only Bush in 2006 was worse. Because of geographic polarization and Dems getting nearly everything they want in redistricting though, the gains in the House may be more limited than the numbers suggest. But any seat that is Biden +10 or less, expect GOP gains in the vast majority of them. Even Republicans can't screw this up if things don't improve for Dems.

It's total hackery to think that the Dems are gonna have a worse year this year than 2010 or 1994, sorry. In order for that to be realized, the GOP would have to win seats like Jennifer Wexton's and Julia Brownley's. It's not happening lol. Look at the Sabato guide to them winning 35 seats. It's only barely even possible, given the maps we have now, and to net more seats than 2010 or 1994, or even Dems in 2006 or 2018, the GOP has to win all 35 of those seats, lose none, and gain a few more shockers. It's not happening.

There is more in common between these two posts than would be apparent at first glance. I think it's fair to say that the Republicans will certainly make substantial gains, enough to regain control of both Houses of Congress, but that such gains will not be on the level of 1994 or 2010. Gerrymandering, polarization, and demographic trends all will have an effect on the results, and will limit the extent of the gains made by Republicans. They will also determine where the gains are made.

I expect for Republicans to flip most, if not all, remaining Trump-Democratic districts, to maintain their hold on Biden-Republican districts, and to win the majority of districts where Biden won by single-digits. This alone would be enough to gain them the majority, given how narrow the Democratic advantage is now. They will also probably win a few 1994, 2006, or 2018-style upsets in some double-digit Biden districts (such as some in Colorado and Connecticut) that will flip back in 2024.

[Pericles]

All the other waves Democrats suffered broke late, or at least became obvious late. 2022 is pretty similar to how the 2018 cycle went. 2018 looked like a wave even earlier though, but the odds of losing the House were about the same because Democrats started 19 seats lower. The actual result will look most like 2006 or 1994 because both houses will flip in one election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's total hackery to think that the Dems are gonna have a worse year this year than 2010 or 1994, sorry. In order for that to be realized, the GOP would have to win seats like Jennifer Wexton's and Julia Brownley's. It's not happening lol. Look at the Sabato guide to them winning 35 seats. It's only barely even possible, given the maps we have now, and to net more seats than 2010 or 1994, or even Dems in 2006 or 2018, the GOP has to win all 35 of those seats, lose none, and gain a few more shockers. It's not happening.

GOP gaining 35 House Seats means its a bigger wave than 2010 as Republicans only need to gain 29 seats to hit 2010 numbers in the House

[OSR stands with Israel]

All the other waves Democrats suffered broke late, or at least became obvious late. 2022 is pretty similar to how the 2018 cycle went. 2018 looked like a wave even earlier though, but the odds of losing the House were about the same because Democrats started 19 seats lower. The actual result will look most like 2006 or 1994 because both houses will flip in one election.

Ehh Id say 2018 started looking like a Dem Wave around the same time 2022 stated looking like a GOP wave and that was with the Virginia election's .

Keep in mind Osoff underperformed Hillary in the GA-6 special

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the other waves Democrats suffered broke late, or at least became obvious late. 2022 is pretty similar to how the 2018 cycle went. 2018 looked like a wave even earlier though, but the odds of losing the House were about the same because Democrats started 19 seats lower. The actual result will look most like 2006 or 1994 because both houses will flip in one election.

Ehh Id say 2018 started looking like a Dem Wave around the same time 2022 stated looking like a GOP wave and that was with the Virginia election's .

Keep in mind Osoff underperformed Hillary in the GA-6 special

Lol D's are the Underdogs in the H and D's are the Favs in the Senate Trump kept the Senate and in Jan he was 39/47 and he had Kavanaugh just like Biden has KENTAJI BROWN, it's possible Biden being under 50 with the 304 blue wall will keep the Senate you guys are trailing in every battleground state except for NV with Laxalt and CCM will be helped by KENTAJI BROWN

[Pericles]

All the other waves Democrats suffered broke late, or at least became obvious late. 2022 is pretty similar to how the 2018 cycle went. 2018 looked like a wave even earlier though, but the odds of losing the House were about the same because Democrats started 19 seats lower. The actual result will look most like 2006 or 1994 because both houses will flip in one election.

Ehh Id say 2018 started looking like a Dem Wave around the same time 2022 stated looking like a GOP wave and that was with the Virginia election's .

Keep in mind Osoff underperformed Hillary in the GA-6 special

Technically yes, but Democrats had big overperformances in all the other House special elections and state legislative special elections from April, if not earlier (by June 2017, Democrats were averaging a 14-point overperformance). Trump's approval was also bad his entire presidency, while Biden's was good until Afghanistan and the Delta wave.

[OBD]

Probably a reverse 2018. Won't be anywhere near 2010 obviously, with Dems far less overextended and a relatively favorable redistricting cycle - but with Biden's approvals this low a roughly 2018-sized seat loss seems within the likely parameters. 

[LordLarry]

Democrats in 2010 looked the worst for sure based on the Tea Party movement and approval ratings.