til to lean D, closer to lean D.
2020 was bad for Dems in tourist places that were hurt by the economy closing (Hawaii, Las Vegas, Miami). They should improve in 2022 so I'd expect the Dem to win by about 5.
Why are you so confident in Democrats improving to such an extent next year? You seem to believe that 2022 is on track to be another 2002, but for the Democrats rather than the Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if Masto wins reelection, but this isn't a race Democrats can take for granted.
I didn't say they should take it for granted. The 5 point margin assumes she runs a very good campaign as I expect her to. But I said a million times that Nevada would be closer than people expected in 2020 and everyone here said no, it's a lean democratic state. That's still true, but like I said above, Las Vegas was wrecked by the covid shutdowns which people associated with democrats. People here underestimate how much people vote their own interests. That is no longer a factor so I expect things to revert back to normal. People here are viewing this election through the prism of the 2020 results, but the results should have been a healthier margin for Democrats but for the issue above.
I certainly think much of your explanation for why Nevada swung right last year-anger induced to the coronavirus shutdowns-is correct, and I do believe that Masto starts off with the advantage in her race. But your analysis isn't confined to Nevada alone; you seem to believe that Democrats will overperform
across the country, and that they will do well enough to retain both Houses of Congress. What would lead you to believe in this? Do you still subscribe to the notion of an "Emerging Democratic Majority"?
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