Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

Thank you for saying that. I did not dare saying it myself because I would have been called a racist, but yeah calling a corrupt career politican like her a public servant is really a disservice to true public servants (militaries, nurses.....)

I certainly agree, and I laughed out loud when I initially read Pollster's post (not at him, but at Maxine Waters).

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

This seems like an unfair characterization. You may not like Waters and her personality or politics, but she appears to be a normal civil servant working for her district?

Maxine Waters doesn't even live in her district, and was investigated by the House Ethics Committee for a bank deal, involving herself and her husband, that she participated in soon after the financial collapse of 2008.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

This seems like an unfair characterization. You may not like Waters and her personality or politics, but she appears to be a normal civil servant working for her district?

Maxine Waters doesn't even live in her district, and was investigated by the House Ethics Committee for a bank deal, involving herself and her husband, that she participated in soon after the financial collapse of 2008.

Waters is a prolific pork barreller but only lives a mile or so outside her district because its boundaries moved thanks to redistricting.

I'll concede your point on that, but it doesn't change the thrust of what I'm arguing about Waters.

[Calthrina950]

These races are tilt R, maybe you could make a case for lean R for Perude. This state has become even more hyper-polarized over the last few years, more so than even LA, MS, and AL. It seems most Georgia congressional R’s uniformly outran Trump by a couple points and that’s it, regardless of incumbency or location (rural vs suburban).
It’s getting to be pretty much impossible for any Republican to ever win by more than ~5% without some kind of miraculous dem turnout implosion or a Mooreing.

It's astonishing to think that Johnny Isakson won by nearly 14% just four years ago, and by ~20% in both 2004 and 2010. Sonny Perdue won reelection as Governor in 2006 by ~20%, and there were downballot Republicans throughout the 2000s and 2010s who consistently won by double-digit margins, some with over 60% of the vote! Obviously, those days are gone in Georgia. The state now seems to potentially be headed down the path of Virginia, with the Atlanta Metropolitan Area the analogue to Northern Virginia, and like Northern Virginia, outvoting the rural and exurban areas of the state.

[Calthrina950]

Speaking of McGrath, she's finally trying to summon resistance boomers to important Senate races:

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1329455030731223041

Oh no this might be the kiss of death. Tell national Dems to stay away from Ga and let them run their own campaign like jeez

Especially someone who was possibly the single biggest mess of a candidate this whole election cycle. Not that this election was winnable for Democrats, but Schumer deserves to lose his leadership position for hand-picking her (and the disaster that Cal Cunningham turned out to be, if we're talking about an actually winnable seat). Some people are saying that Democrats lost a bunch of downballot races in Kentucky because of her reverse coattails.

Schumer's selection of Bullock in Montana backfired, and Democratic candidates Greenfield, Harrison, Hegar, Gross, and Gideon all fell far short of expectations as well. The only successful Democratic recruit thus far was Mark Kelly in Arizona (any Democrat with a pulse would have beaten Cory Gardner), and even he won by less then what polls had indicated. Democrats will need to greatly overhaul their campaign infrastructure moving forward.

[Calthrina950]

Speaking of McGrath, she's finally trying to summon resistance boomers to important Senate races:

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1329455030731223041

Oh no this might be the kiss of death. Tell national Dems to stay away from Ga and let them run their own campaign like jeez

Especially someone who was possibly the single biggest mess of a candidate this whole election cycle. Not that this election was winnable for Democrats, but Schumer deserves to lose his leadership position for hand-picking her (and the disaster that Cal Cunningham turned out to be, if we're talking about an actually winnable seat). Some people are saying that Democrats lost a bunch of downballot races in Kentucky because of her reverse coattails.

Schumer's selection of Bullock in Montana backfired, and Democratic candidates Greenfield, Harrison, Hegar, Gross, and Gideon all fell far short of expectations as well. The only successful Democratic recruit thus far was Mark Kelly in Arizona (any Democrat with a pulse would have beaten Cory Gardner), and even he won by less then what polls had indicated. Democrats will need to greatly overhaul their campaign infrastructure moving forward.

Not really in their control though? Bullock, Greenfield, and Harrison in particular were all great candidates for their particular states. There wasn't much they could do - the outcome was really out of their hands no matter what, looking at all that happened

I'm not going to deny that they were good candidates, but Harrison's race against Graham-and to a great extent, Bullock's race in Montana-became nationalized, and they were unable to disassociate themselves.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1330342622905442304?s=21

Didn't I say a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised if Loeffler contracted coronavirus, following Rick Scott's diagnosis?

[Calthrina950]

Speaking of which, is there a breakdown of the Texas Senate race by congressional district?

I'd be curious to know if Cornyn carried the districts of Fletcher and Allred. Abbott won their districts in 2018 even as they were ousting Culberson and Sessions (who will be returning to the House from a different district in January).

[Calthrina950]

Speaking of which, is there a breakdown of the Texas Senate race by congressional district?

I'd be curious to know if Cornyn carried the districts of Fletcher and Allred. Abbott won their districts in 2018 even as they were ousting Culberson and Sessions (who will be returning to the House from a different district in January).

Same. I assume he probably carried TX-24, along with TX-02, TX-03, TX-06, TX-10, TX-22, TX-23 and TX-31, all of which went to Trump by 3 points or less.

Cornyn certainly carried every district that Trump did-and in most of the ones that you list, he probably won by more than Trump, given that they are predominantly of a urban/suburban character. He may have done slightly worse than Trump in TX-23, given that he didn't exactly match Trump's numbers in the Rio Grande Valley. If Cornyn did not win TX-07 and TX-32, he probably kept them within 5%.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

His name's Harrison Deal and was 20 years old and was killed in a car crash today. He was a family friend of Brian Kemp, and some people are saying he was dating one of his daughters. Also, Kemp didn't attend the rally either.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-loeffler-cancels-rally-plans-after-campaign-staffer-dies/BARFFD7WYND27A2M57BMIRP26M/

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334992531537465344

Loeffler & Kemp are the new Clintons, got it.

I'm surprised that blame for Deal's death wasn't placed on the Clintons. And judging by his name, is it possible that he's a relation of former Governor Nathan Deal?

[Calthrina950]

Absolute LOL at anyone thinking that level of ticket splitting will occur

Why is it so? Polls have shown that hundreds of thousands of rural Georgians stand at the ready to vote for the flawless, telegenic young man Jon Ossoff who reminds them of their own grandson and who will stand up for their values! At the same time, educated suburbanites in Marietta and Sandy Springs know that they can rely upon David Perdue. They trust him, and many of them know him as a neighbor with whom they've had an annual barbecue! Thus, they're going to support him!

On the other hand, educated suburbanites and rural Georgians alike know that Kelly Loeffler is looking out for all of them, and they're not going to vote for the radical leftist Raphael Warnock, who's said that he loves Castro's regime and isn't a real pastor. He'll be lucky to get 30% of the vote!

Sarcasm.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567

I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

I notice that almost no one in those pictures wore a mask. I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of these figures contracted coronavirus as a result of attending this event. Gohmert, of course, had the virus several months ago and recovered from it.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20

what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

Recently, it refers less to the year itself than the New York Times 1619 Project, a series of essays that ran last year arguing that slavery and racism is the central force of all of American history.

This could also be true. I'm not exactly sure what Warnock is trying to say by using the phrase "COVID-1619", but I'm assuming that he's implying that many of the attacks against him have been racially motivated. I wouldn't doubt this, but it was still a bizarre and poor choice of words on his part.

[Calthrina950]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

[Calthrina950]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

I understand your motivations better now. Like you, I consider myself to be a moderate, and I am a registered unaffiliated voter in Colorado (hence my avatar). I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and third-party candidates in the past. So I would understand why you would be skeptical to give Biden a Democratic trifecta, although I'd hope you understand that many Republicans (and McConnell in particular) have nefarious motives.

[Calthrina950]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Who would you say is favored in the two runoffs right now? Warnock/Ossoff, or Loeffler/Perdue? The most recent polls I've seen (and yes, I'm aware of what happened with polling this year) seem to indicate that Loeffler/Perdue have the advantage, and I personally expect them to eke out victories. But what are you seeing where you live? I know you've talked at length about how many independents and moderates in Georgia have been alienated by what has happened over the past month since the presidential election.

[Calthrina950]

?

Americans of all political persuasions hate the woman on the left's homophobia... it's over.

Who is she ?

Congresswoman-elect Young Kim of California.

Ok, but why would her homophobia be bad for him ?

Homophobia is still widespread in the GOP and South ...

I don't think you understand the purpose of this thread.

[Calthrina950]

Georgia will find a way to make the counting slow, trust me.

Have to find those extra ballots to put Warnock/Ossoff just over the top.

You clearly don't like Democrats, so why did you send me this?



lol

LMAO, he sent me a buddy request as well.

LOL

I was sent one also this morning, and was surprised to receive it. I haven't made a decision one way or the other on it. While I'm not as antagonistic towards him as other posters on here-in fact, I've only interacted with him maybe once or twice in the past year-I'm not fond of much of what he posts.

[Calthrina950]

It's mind boggling that Loeffler is running only 0.2% behind Perdue. Perdue is atleast a normal Republican, Loeffler on the other hand is total garbage and just an all around awful candidate with no redeeming qualities.

Perdue and Loeffler are both equally terrible.

[Calthrina950]

From Stephanie Saul @ NYT: Kelly Loeffler is only the second woman to serve as a senator from Georgia. The other, Rebecca Latimer Felton, served for one day in 1922.

Latimer was racist too, but extremely so.

And strangely enough, she was a suffragist as well, and was very adamant about it. Human nature certainly is something to reckon with.

[Calthrina950]

Jimmy Carter watching tonight’s results.

For once, I'll agree with you. I'm glad that Carter is able to see his home state turn back to his party before his death.

[Calthrina950]

So why did some people think Ossoff was a stronger candidate than Warnock?

It’s possible he was slightly stronger but Loeffler was much weaker than Perdue, but really it’s tiny differences.

Personally, I think both Ossoff and Warnock have been very solid candidates. Perdue and Loeffler are both equally awful (from a personal and political perspective), but Loeffler has run the worst campaign of any of the candidates, by far.