2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Calthrina950]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

Places like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont & Montana are notorious for their independent streaks.

Vermont gave Phil Scott a 2-1 majority last night. He did better than Biden, winning every county in the state. However, Montana voted Republican in every statewide race-Bullock, Williams, and Cooney all came close, but all lost, and Trump comfortably held the state.

Ok. I know Montana went GOP this election but look at past elections. This all doesn't boil down to one election. Smh. Too many of you are super reactionary and snippy about crap.

What? I'm very well aware of Montana's prior partisan history, and of course, Tester won comfortably in 2018. I was merely making an observation about this election. I don't understand why you had to take that kind of tone towards me.

Sorry. Others on this thread have gotten under my skin, took what you wrote the wrong way. My apologies.

That's fine. I certainly have gotten heated myself on this forum from time to time.

[Calthrina950]

The results in MN/OR/WA/CO specifically makes me think Biden got a ton of 2016's third-party voters.

You would be correct. I'm one of them.

[Calthrina950]

Should we be worried about NV? What’s going on there?

AZ seems more concerning than NV at this point, the remaining vote sounds very Trump favorable.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324070507168358402

It would be even more depressing if Biden just barely wins by taking back the three Upper Midwestern States, without flipping any of his Sunbelt targets.

[Calthrina950]

Is Biden going to win PA?

Yes, I believe so. I also think he will win both Nevada and Arizona, and he has a shot at Georgia as well.

[Calthrina950]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

[Calthrina950]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

Honestly I think she would have to do primaries. I'm certain the Progressive movement is going to run a lot of challengers to Democrat incumbents, the base is moving more toward a Progressive platform and after this result probably see an opening. I'm curious who would run against her from the Progressive side, maybe someone like Ro Khanna. It just depends how the 4 years is going. Kamala Harris though could do very well as VP and really embrace the Progressive movement to have a coalition. I also could totally see Biden running for a 2nd term if he's having a successful one.

With Republicans likely keeping control of the Senate, I'm not sure Biden's Presidency will be as successful as we might have hoped before yesterday.

[Calthrina950]

I'm thinking that Biden is still going to win Arizona, but it will be a close margin. And Pennsylvania is trending strongly in his favor-that alone will be enough to put him over 270, regardless of what happens in the other outstanding states.

[Calthrina950]

Kanye West received about 60,000 votes as of now. His best state was Tennessee.

https://www.nydailynews.com/snyde/ny-kanye-west-60000-votes-20201105-xje2ti6s3nd6noycwrnbnvapri-story.html

His first vote of his life was writing in himself. I wonder how many presidential candidates can say that. Even Trump probably voted before.

A co-worker at my job, an independent who dislikes both Biden and Trump, told me that he voted for Kanye!

[Calthrina950]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

When Fox News called Ohio in 2008 much to Karl Rove's ire, Megan Kelly talked to the decision room and they said they look at precincts as part of make a call. The fact that there seems to be nothing left to count in heavily red Yavapai County might be part of their metric.

That actually occurred in 2012.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

I really should make a Senator WAR chart. I’m pretty sure Manchin and Tester are obvious, but Baldwin and especially Brown are amazing too.
On the GOP side, Collins and Toomey definitely top the list.
Worst Dem is almost certainly Feinstein but Sinema may officially be below replacement if Arizona is trending as quick as it looks.

The results this year in West Virginia and Montana, with Democrats losing every single statewide race in both states, makes the victories of Manchin and Tester in 2018 even more impressive.

[Calthrina950]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

[Calthrina950]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

[Calthrina950]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

It’s almost like relying on Republicans to vote against Republicans isn’t the best strategy.

It certainly isn't. Biden should have focused more of his energies on getting out the Democratic vote, which could have made the difference for him in states like Florida and North Carolina.

[Calthrina950]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

Bumping this forward because I don't think it was seen.

[Calthrina950]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

Bumping this forward because I don't think it was seen.

He's out performing Hillary in Lackawanna County, and Luzerne County isn't done yet.

I'm aware of this. I was wondering if anyone had a guess as to how many counties nationwide Biden has carried, approximately.

[Calthrina950]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

Bumping this forward because I don't think it was seen.

biden was leading in 524 last time i checked. there's a similar number of counties on both sides that will likely flip once outstanding votes come in, so it should stay in the 520-530 range

524? That would be an increase upon Hillary Clinton, who only won 490 last time around. But still, it's far short of the 693 counties that Obama carried in 2012 and the 875 that he won in 2008. That's a reflection of how intense geographic polarization has come. However, as was pointed out on here, Biden flipped several populous suburban counties, so that's helping him to pad his PV margins.

[Calthrina950]

GA margin: 29,000 votes.

For who?

[Calthrina950]

GA margin: 29,000 votes.

For who?

Between the two. Actually, it's 28,800

I see. What are the chances that Biden can overtake Trump's lead at this point?

[Calthrina950]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Hot take: in the end, COVID changed next to nothing.

Agreed. The pandemic only intensified partisan polarization and deepened the loyalty of Trump's base to him, while increasing the determination of the Democratic base to get him out. It's clear from these election results that this country is split virtually 50/50 between those who despise Trump and those who support him.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324228834598801410

The biggest shifts weren't by region, race, age, or any of that.  It was education.  The GOP is quickly turning into the party of dummies.

And this is precisely why we got the result that we did. You wonder why Trump's supporters are so dead set against Democrats now? It's this kind of condescension that only intensifies their loyalty to him and to Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Hot take: in the end, COVID changed next to nothing.

Agreed. The pandemic only intensified partisan polarization and deepened the loyalty of Trump's base to him, while increasing the determination of the Democratic base to get him out. It's clear from these election results that this country is split virtually 50/50 between those who despise Trump and those who support him.

Trump never had majority approval. He won in 2016 with 45.9 % of the vote. He will end up with 46-47% in 2020. The country is not split 50/50. If it were, he probably would have been re-elected.

I'm aware of this, but this is as close to a 50/50 result as one could envision, given the Democratic advantage in the popular vote. And this is certainly at odds with many of the polls we saw, which had Trump stuck in the lower 40s throughout much of the year. It's clear that most of the undecideds broke his way in the end. And I think it's risky for you to say that the support he has is trivial. If it were not, we would not have to endure such suspense to get the final result.

[Calthrina950]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Hot take: in the end, COVID changed next to nothing.

Agreed. The pandemic only intensified partisan polarization and deepened the loyalty of Trump's base to him, while increasing the determination of the Democratic base to get him out. It's clear from these election results that this country is split virtually 50/50 between those who despise Trump and those who support him.

If by "50-50" you mean something like ~53ish-47ish, give or take, then you would be correct. In other words, one side of this polarized split is measurably bigger than the other.

This is exactly what I meant. And notice how I said virtually 50/50 in terms of the divide. The Democratic base is larger than the Republican base, but the Republican base is much more geographically widespread-hence, why the Electoral College has the bias that it does.

[Calthrina950]

It is not controversial to point out that Joe Biden is not a popular or charismatic politician. Either is Kamala Harris - hence the Democrat primaries.

So there needs to be some careful analysis of the vote count. IMHO a significant number of the votes are down to the 'get rid of Trump' sentiment, and likely very little to do with any enthusiasm for Biden.

Although I have a positive opinion of Biden from a personal perspective, my vote for him was primarily motivated by a desire to get Trump out. As I've said several times before, I strongly dislike Kamala Harris and voted for Biden in spite of her.

[Calthrina950]

Cameron and La Salle Parishes in LA voted >90% R for the first time ever.

It's astonishing how Biden failed to reverse the Democratic collapse in rural areas throughout most of the country. But then again, trends are real and the 2018 midterms gave us a strong indication that this would be the outcome.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona
https://twitter.com/razingarizona/status/1324489129468456961?s=20

24% (-12%/+12%) swing with respect to the previous margins.
Would be in line with a very narrow Trump victory, according to the table I posted some 20 pages ago.

Better hope those later drops from Maricopa really are more Dem.

It would be even more frustrating for Biden and the Democrats if they fail to flip John McCain's home state. Georgia, however, could prove to be of some consolation if it flips for Biden.