2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Calthrina950]

POLITICO has apparently projected Nancy Mace the winner over Joe Cunningham in South Carolina. And Chip Roy has won reelection against Wendy Davis in Texas. Republicans are definitely overperforming in the House as well tonight, although that chamber will stay in Democratic hands.

[Calthrina950]

POLITICO has apparently projected Nancy Mace the winner over Joe Cunningham in South Carolina. And Chip Roy has won reelection against Wendy Davis in Texas. Republicans are definitely overperforming in the House as well tonight, although that chamber will stay in Democratic hands.

Republicans have overperformed downballot period. Democrats need to take a long, hard look at how they're running congressional campaigns.

And your timeline predicted that Republicans would win the 2020 election, before the Great Realignment occurs. Perhaps what you postulated is coming true after all.

[Calthrina950]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

[Calthrina950]

Maryland Matt has won the Montanan seat

Republicans have swept Montana's races, which I thought was likely. Daines certainly ran one of the strongest campaigns of any Senate Republican this cycle, and it paid off for him. But even Republicans who ran weaker campaigns, like Tillis, Graham, Cornyn, Ernst, and Collins, have either already won or look poised for victory.

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

We've seen nothing out of AK yet.

True, but the last polls from Alaska had Sullivan and Young up, and given what happened in Kansas, Montana, Iowa, and South Carolina, I'm not too confident.

[Calthrina950]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

If Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then you have two run-off elections in the first week of January for those Senate seats.

That's true. Hopefully Democrats might be able to pull that out.

[Calthrina950]

Lets also be clear, if Trump wins re-election, he'll win again without the popular vote. How do you think that'll play with the population?

We're basically at two Americas at this point. We were already on the way there, but this just solidifies it.

This country is just as polarized as it has ever been. Trump is basically matching his approvals with this election, which have remained stuck at the mid-40s for the past several months. And watching ABC News, I'm getting the hunch that we've been launched into a 2000 redux-the final phase of a historic, divisive, and bitter election, just like 2000 ended up being.

[Calthrina950]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

That it took this long to definitively project Virginia is certainly not good news for Biden. It appears that he is going to win the state by an underwhelming margin at this point, perhaps slightly less than Northam's margin of victory in 2017. This was a state where it was thought Democrats would win by double digits. And Bob Good won in VA-05, so another disappointment for Democrats in the House.

[Calthrina950]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

That it took this long to definitively project Virginia is certainly not good news for Biden. It appears that he is going to win the state by an underwhelming margin at this point, perhaps slightly less than Northam's margin of victory in 2017. This was a state where it was thought Democrats would win by double digits. And Bob Good won in VA-05, so another disappointment for Democrats in the House.

I'm not sure I would read that much into it. It could be more that they are very cautious about making calls.

You're right, but it's still something of concern to me. Back in 2018, for example, Tim Kaine was projected as the winner in Virginia as soon as the polls closed.

[Calthrina950]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

That it took this long to definitively project Virginia is certainly not good news for Biden. It appears that he is going to win the state by an underwhelming margin at this point, perhaps slightly less than Northam's margin of victory in 2017. This was a state where it was thought Democrats would win by double digits. And Bob Good won in VA-05, so another disappointment for Democrats in the House.

VA05th was always Likely R.

Anyway Biden did win VA beach by 9 points, looks like it will follow Colorado.

You're right, but Democrats had been hopeful that they could score an upset there.

[Calthrina950]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

Demographics are changing and the Democrats need to stop running old white men and women on the ticket.

Except Kamala Harris is not an old white woman. I'm now convinced that Biden made a mistake by selecting her as his running mate. He should have gone with Tammy Duckworth, Cory Booker, or Julian Castro.

[Calthrina950]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

Demographics are changing and the Democrats need to stop running old white men and women on the ticket.

Except Kamala Harris is not an old white woman. I'm now convinced that Biden made a mistake by selecting her as his running mate. He should have gone with Tammy Duckworth, Cory Booker, or Julian Castro.

What was Kamala even supposed to add to the ticket?

Perhaps they thought she could appeal to moderate suburbanites and to nonwhite voters, but Harris is disliked by many minority men, and her policies as California AG were (and are) deeply unappealing to progressive voters, who view her as a member of the neoliberal establishment. Harris also doesn't have the most charismatic personality, to put it mildly, and comes across as fake in many of the same ways as Clinton. I believe Tammy Duckworth would have been a much more genuine and serious running mate.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1323890527767416834

Ngl this pleasantly surprises me.

Shapiro has never been a Trumpist, and he has criticized Trump frequently when he believes that he is wrong. This is another instance of him doing so.

[Calthrina950]

For all the early consternation about Virginia, it looks like Biden will win it by about 10%.  Some people never learn.

I don't think that it was ever in doubt that Biden would win Virginia. It's just that many people were expecting it to be a near-instant (or even instant) call for him, and not for it to drag out for as long as it did. That is what would have happened were Biden winning by the "landslide" polls had predicted.

[Calthrina950]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

[Calthrina950]

Trump got annihilated in Colorado. 14 point win with the remaining ballots favoring Dems

Is it enough to flip CO-3?

I don't think so. Boebert has been leading by a stubborn 5% margin for hours now, and I don't think Mitsch-Bush is going to be able to make it up. The defeats of Peterson, Torres-Small, Horn, and other such Democrats gives credence to my belief that it will be a Republican hold. Moreover-as I noted-Biden was unable to restore Democratic strength in Southern Colorado to pre-2016 levels, and that should work to Boebert's advantage.

[Calthrina950]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

[Calthrina950]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

Remember that IF Trump loses, we don't know what state the republican party will be in. They could be deeply split between those who wants more Trump and those who cannot get away from Trumpism fast enough. I have been anticipating that struggle and it is devastating to see that Trumpism may have prevailed in this election.

I disagree with you. Trump's base is fired up, and there can be no doubt after this Election Night that they now comprise the dominant element in the Republican Party. People like Hawley and DeSantis are the rising stars in the Party. They are in Trump's mold, and will be able to more effectively communicate his agenda then he can, in a way that will appeal to minority and working class voters.

[Calthrina950]

Why are Biden and Lujan underperforming in New Mexico? Colorado has voted to the left in both races. That's kinda weird.

The overall Hispanic swing to Trump that was seen in Florida and Texas, and to a lesser extent in Nevada.

[Calthrina950]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

No. On here, it seems that the consensus is that Biden has been, and remains favored.  I personally think Biden will win Wisconsin by a Kerry or Gore-esque margin at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Still hoping Biden pulls this out, by losing FL+OH.

If Trump also ends up with 240-269 EV, I'd have won 2 high-risk bets on William Hill and cash in almost 1000€s ... (1200$).

Florida and Ohio would both get knocked out of bellwether status if Biden wins the election while losing both states. And that seems very likely at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Trump got annihilated in Colorado. 14 point win with the remaining ballots favoring Dems

Is it enough to flip CO-3?

I don't think so. Boebert has been leading by a stubborn 5% margin for hours now, and I don't think Mitsch-Bush is going to be able to make it up. The defeats of Peterson, Torres-Small, Horn, and other such Democrats gives credence to my belief that it will be a Republican hold. Moreover-as I noted-Biden was unable to restore Democratic strength in Southern Colorado to pre-2016 levels, and that should work to Boebert's advantage.

I'm pretty much willing to call Boebert as the winner in CO-03 at this point. Mitsch-Bush has not conceded the race, but Boebert claimed victory last night and the local stations here seem to be treating her as the presumptive winner. This year has ushered in a very disappointing result for Democrats in the House of Representatives.

[Calthrina950]

I really hope Gary Peters pulls through also.

It's astonishing that Democrats must now be concerned about Peters. I'm also still shocked by how every competitive Senate race-aside from Arizona and Colorado, where Republicans were DOA-broke in favor of the Republicans. This very much resembles what happened in 2018, when Arizona and Nevada broke for the Democrats but they lost Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

[Calthrina950]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

Uhhh

You were wrong about Kennedy, but I'll give you credit for Georgia, as it's looking like Trump might narrowly hold the state. It's clearly a swing state now, however, and Democrats could sweep the Senate runoffs.

[Calthrina950]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

Places like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont & Montana are notorious for their independent streaks.

Vermont gave Phil Scott a 2-1 majority last night. He did better than Biden, winning every county in the state. However, Montana voted Republican in every statewide race-Bullock, Williams, and Cooney all came close, but all lost, and Trump comfortably held the state.

[Calthrina950]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

Places like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont & Montana are notorious for their independent streaks.

Vermont gave Phil Scott a 2-1 majority last night. He did better than Biden, winning every county in the state. However, Montana voted Republican in every statewide race-Bullock, Williams, and Cooney all came close, but all lost, and Trump comfortably held the state.

Ok. I know Montana went GOP this election but look at past elections. This all doesn't boil down to one election. Smh. Too many of you are super reactionary and snippy about crap.

What? I'm very well aware of Montana's prior partisan history, and of course, Tester won comfortably in 2018. I was merely making an observation about this election. I don't understand why you had to take that kind of tone towards me.