2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Calthrina950]

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https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1330353938290401282

The Democratic transition into becoming the party of the wealthy is truly astonishing and depressing.

Stop it. The Democratic Party isn't the "party of the wealthy" because of this election.

I find it interesting that as soon as I say something that goes against the narrative here, people jump down my throat again. Why should I be surprised at this?

There is a pretty strong correlation this election of counties gaining population swinging towards Biden and those losing population swinging towards Trump.  Now historically, counties that are struggling tend to swing against the incumbent party while those doing well swing towards it.  It shows just how dominant education and cultural issues are right now that the pattern has been disrupted. Wealthy tend to live in culturally diverse and vibrant areas and appreciate that especially compared to the fascist Republicanism.

This actually alludes to something which was brought to my attention recently. This article highlights how bankers-both executives and employees-overwhelmingly favored Biden, with their financial contributions and endorsements, over Trump. Republican policies have been much more favorable to the banks, and they benefited in particular from the 2017 Trump tax cuts. However, banks feel themselves to be more in alignment with Democratic "values", on issues such as climate change, income inequality, immigration, and foreign investment, among other things, and are hence more supportive of Democrats. In a way, banks are acting against their own interests, as expressed in the form of the bottom line.

Unfortunately there is a segment of these voters still willing to vote R down ballot even though those Rs  have shown a totally lack of spine and constant appeasement and pandering towards the Trump fascists.  I mean you see it here.

They may be still willing to vote downballot precisely because they recognize that certain Republican policies benefits them financially. And as I've noted, they are not in complete alignment with the Democratic Party's platform.

[Calthrina950]

It looks like Biden has surpassed Lyndon Johnson's 1964 percentage in the state, meaning that he now has the best performance of any presidential candidate in Maryland since Horatio Seymour in 1868.

[Calthrina950]

So states won by at least a million votes...

Biden-

California
New York
Illinois
Massachussetts
Maryland

Trump-

None

And this is why it will remain very difficult for the Republicans to win the popular vote.

[Calthrina950]

Crosspost from AAD: Here's the 1992-2020 Georgia county swing map. Two narrow Democratic wins 28 years apart.

So the 1992 vote state was fairly uniform across the state? Of course Perot got 13% in GA in 92 which gets in the way

This was the 1992 map:

If only one could combine the two maps, we would have an excellent configuration.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331249919093600263?s=20

Massachusetts has published its final results.

It still astounds me that Biden was able to outperform both Obama and Kerry in Massachusetts, garnering the best Democratic result here since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Biden is only the second presidential candidate, following Johnson, to win the state by at least a million votes.

[Calthrina950]

Talk about empty calories.

What do you mean?

[Calthrina950]

They should redefine the meaning of "New York Minute". Most actual third world countries are more efficient at counting votes.

As I was saying the other day, Florida and Texas-both of which have already certified their results-put New York and California to shame. I can only imagine how this election would be right now if they were swing states and the outcome was still in doubt.

[Calthrina950]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:



swings:

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

Do you plan on updating your Redrawn States Project to include the 2020 election, when all of the results have been certified? I'd be interested to see how Biden fared on your map.

[Calthrina950]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

No disrespect but why would it be concerning. Also your implying most Democrats are wealthy why is why you might get blowback

I've explained elsewhere at some length my discomfort with the party realignments we are seeing. I'd rather for the Democratic Party to be the Party for working classes of all stripes then a Party that is not.

[Calthrina950]

Interesting how the four biggest blue states (CA, NY, IL, NJ) all trended R.

Biden didn't improve as much in these states as had been anticipated, falling short of Obama's 2012 numbers in New Jersey and New York, and approximating Obama's numbers from that year in Illinois. He outperformed both Obama and Clinton in California, but there was evidence of the minority swing to Republicans there, and this is the first time this century that Democrats have lost House seats in California-a result which they didn't experience even in 2010 or 2014.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336504395186442248
Probably a big part of the reason CO trended so hard to the left.

It was widespread. #2 and #3 on the list are Fort Collins and Denver.

Colorado is one of the few states which seems to have met or exceeded everyone's expectations in this election. Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont are other examples.

[Calthrina950]

Re: El Paso County/Colorado Springs

This is one of the most rapidly growing areas of the state, in part because it's cheaper than Denver/northern suburbs. Lots of people who would be moving to Denver area are moving down here instead for commuting (!), telework, or general recreation activity. A lot of the factors that keep the area red are still present (evangelical presence, military, diploma divide) but it's swinging the same way as the rest of the state's major metros for the same reasons.

As a lifelong resident of Colorado Springs, I can testify to the truth of all you say here.

[Calthrina950]

Trump got absolutely destroyed in Charlottesville, VA. Received under 13% of the vote and performed significantly worse compared to 2016

It's astonishing that George W. Bush got 31% of the vote in Charlottesville as late as 2000. The city, which was already a Democratic stronghold by the turn of the millennium, has turned massively leftwards over the past 20 years. The events of 2017 certainly contributed to Biden's improvement in 2020 there.