Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread v2 (pg 77 - declares victory in Iowa)

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Bernie's odds look grim, he has a relatively high floor but low ceiling, and most winnable voters have gone to other candidates. His numbers may gradually decline over the coming months.

His only hope at this point is if Warren collapses but at this point, that is unlikely. He may be better off dropping out. He's run a bad campaign filled with some of the most toxic people around. He should go back to what he's good at and being a Senator.

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Bernie's odds look grim, he has a relatively high floor but low ceiling, and most winnable voters have gone to other candidates. His numbers may gradually decline over the coming months.

His only hope at this point is if Warren collapses but at this point, that is unlikely. He may be better off dropping out. He's run a bad campaign filled with some of the most toxic people around. He should go back to what he's good at and being a Senator.

He's more likely to be buoyed by Biden collapsing. Warren's base of support comes from a completely different social class than we Bernie voters do, and clearly want nothing to do with us.

A Biden collapse is unlikely. The slow decline we’ve been seeing from him so far may continue, though low info voters (the ones who have Sanders as a 2nd choice) are most likely to stick with him.

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Bernie's odds look grim, he has a relatively high floor but low ceiling, and most winnable voters have gone to other candidates. His numbers may gradually decline over the coming months.

His only hope at this point is if Warren collapses but at this point, that is unlikely. He may be better off dropping out. He's run a bad campaign filled with some of the most toxic people around. He should go back to what he's good at and being a Senator.

Like I've said before, Bernie and Warren's stylistic differences are strong enough to distinguish their supporter bases. Him dropping out would probably throw the election to Biden, who offers the same nostalgic appeal and appeals to a more working-class crowd.

That depends on how much support Sanders is actually receiving, especially in the Southern Super Tuesday states.

If Biden is at 60 in a three way but would be 70 in a 1 vs 1 against Warren, sure.

If Sanders and Warren are at 15 percent each or slightly below that, Biden is getting almost every delegate in the Deep South instead of just 75-80% in a 1 vs 1 race.

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Okay that's enough. I've already issued one infraction for defaming Sawx (who has some right to be upset even if I personally wouldn't go as far as he is), and there are some posts in the last bit of the thread that while I haven't yet taken any action on, I'd prefer to see things de-escalate.

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Can we please stop talking about how this will benefit candidates? This is kind of a health emergency. This is a website dedicated to amateur political analysis.  It's just what we do here. Considering this story just broke, it’s probably best we keep political ramifications to a minimum, though it is worth highlighting that I have found posts that generally speaking state a wish for Bernie to drop out so he can recover well, appropriate. With that said, I’ve already deleted one post and one topic so far that I didn’t feel was appropriate at least for now, though the latter was also arguably spam as well

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Wtf Bernie.

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Manchin is a clown but this does speak to the difficulties of Bernie passing many of the things he touts. Not only will GOP obstruct but pricks like Manchin, Carper, Coons, and Sinema will too.

The fact that Sanders opposes the abolition of filibuster is concrete evidence of how unserious he is about passing his agenda through congress.

I've had my disagreements with Sanders as of late but this isn't one of them.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/11/18306132/bernie-sanders-filibuster-budget-reconciliation-medicare-60-votes

I would remind everyone that the budget reconciliation process, with 51 votes, has been used time and time again to pass major pieces of legislation and that under our Constitution and the rules of the Senate, it is the vice president who determines what is and is not permissible under budget reconciliation. I can tell you that a vice president in a Bernie Sanders administration will determine that Medicare for All can pass through the Senate under reconciliation and is not in violation of the rules.

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Manchin is a clown but this does speak to the difficulties of Bernie passing many of the things he touts. Not only will GOP obstruct but pricks like Manchin, Carper, Coons, and Sinema will too.

The fact that Sanders opposes the abolition of filibuster is concrete evidence of how unserious he is about passing his agenda through congress.

I've had my disagreements with Sanders as of late but this isn't one of them.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/11/18306132/bernie-sanders-filibuster-budget-reconciliation-medicare-60-votes

I would remind everyone that the budget reconciliation process, with 51 votes, has been used time and time again to pass major pieces of legislation and that under our Constitution and the rules of the Senate, it is the vice president who determines what is and is not permissible under budget reconciliation. I can tell you that a vice president in a Bernie Sanders administration will determine that Medicare for All can pass through the Senate under reconciliation and is not in violation of the rules.

Budget reconciliation won't help pass immigration reform, DC statehood, or gun control measures.
Unless of course you indirectly say that Sanders cares only about economic issues and doesn't give a sh**t for the rest of the Democratic agenda.

Can't the vice president determine that could pass under reconciliation as well?

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Can someone please explain Pete and Bernie’s recent rise in polls and betting odds?

Merging this with the Bernie megathread since I think Pete's been well discussed elsewhere.

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Which begs the question of, why does he instead continue to hire people whose sole qualifications are being rabid, deplorable attack dogs for him on Twitter?

Cuz it pisses off people like you?

Outside of the Atlas bubble, most of the electorate is people like me.

Maybe this is why Sanders has the highest unfavorables of any candidate other than Gabbard.  It's also why he will get 0 delegates from his fellow candidates (except maybe Gabbard+Warren) in the event of a contested convention.

Pursuing a strategy of pissing everyone off is great if your goal is to piss people off.  It may also help excite your little 10% slice of the party.  If your goal is to get elected president, not so much.

Your first point is objectively incorrect, and you clearly made it up as there is literally no poll that backs this up. In fact, MC has Sanders with the HIGHEST, not lowest favorables. This all comes from a Biden supporter.

It is no doubt the case Bernie has the most people who wouldn't consider backing him in the primary. His favorables are irrelevant in this specific context.

Tulsi Gabbard?

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I was on a flight back to Oklahoma, caught the NFL playoff games, and logged into Atlas an hour ago to do mod duties and get caught up on the overall primary campaign and I come back to this.

Honestly I don't think it's good politics to categorize her "to bring no new bases in the party", especially prior to Iowa, even if there's truth to it but I think the outrage on this board (surprise! surprise!) is too much. If I were making a script, I'd ask said Warren leaner to consider Sanders if Warren flames out at this stage. With that said, I think this political miscalculation and confusion on how widespread this seems for me to cause to question how chaotic Sanders 2020 campaign is which in turn causes me to be concerned about how much of a mess a hypothetical administration would be.

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I think at worst, deploying this story is a really cynical way of juicing the women vote. It's not something I'm proud of. The Sanders campaign was just as cynically tarring Warren supporters as upper class to try to push similar buttons.

Neither campaign looks good doing this. Acting like one is better than the other here is rather ridiculous but of course most people in this thread are so bought into one candidate or another they're going to insist their candidate is faultless while the other is despicable,

100% agreed.

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Maybe he can't remember? Not everyone posts on Atlas and can remember who they voted for them decades ago. Try asking relatives in their 70s who they voted for.

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Maybe he can't remember? Not everyone posts on Atlas and can remember who they voted for them decades ago. Try asking relatives in their 70s who they voted for.

No, he's bragged in the past that he didn't cast a vote until he could vote for himself, like it was a statement of principle or something.  He's also talked about how much he hated Kennedy.

He knows damn well he didn't vote for Kennedy, he just knew that the actual answer wouldn't play well on TV in this race, and made up a lie on the spot.

The tweet you linked in the previous post is not quite that clear.

Why did Bernie lie about the first vote he cast?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1219377168284897281?s=20

This is funny after a week of calling Warren a pathological liar.

He's bragged repeatedly in the past that his first vote was in 1972 for himself.

"I think probably, I won't swear to it, that the first time I voted was in the state of Vermont, probably for myself"

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Maybe he can't remember? Not everyone posts on Atlas and can remember who they voted for them decades ago. Try asking relatives in their 70s who they voted for.

K. We are comparing someone who has run for office for the past 40 years and said unequivocally his first vote was for himself with regular people who probably vote sporadically? Got it.

I wish every candidate got the same benefit of the doubt when lying the way yall give it to Bernie. I've seen posters in this thread contort themselves into pretzels explaining away Bernie's behavior only for it to be confirmed hours or days later. But I get it. Y'all have to protect your candidate.

ETA: If Bernie supporters on this forum and on Twitter weren't so aggressive when his rivals so much as breathe, I really wouldn't GAF about him lying. It's just funny watching yall hand wave his BS when everyone who doesn't move the way you all think they should are to be sent to the electric chair. Meanwhile Bernie and his staff can say and do whatever and it's a bunch of "I can't believe yall care this much about X" or "Are we really wasting time talking about Y?" It's interesting to me.

I’m not going to speak for others but I don’t think I’ve criticized candidates for similar issues in the past. I know I defended Warren when Bernie Bros attacked her for being a registered Republican. Most of my critisms of the other candidates this cycle (namely Beto and Harris) were more cultural than anything this specific but I recognize that in this day and age, political smears are basically inevitable.

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Both(?) of you chill before it escalates further and I start issuing infractions.

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Just when you think the next attack can't possibly be more pathetic, desperate and misleading than the last...

Not a good look for the establishment. :/

The Washington Examiner posted this latest news and that is a right-wing publication. Not exactly a DNC establishment. If Bernie Sanders is the nominee and can't handle Trump's attacks, then he is toast.

If that is the best they can throw out there, then I suddenly feel very confident about the general election. Half joking of course, but these attacks are coming off as increasingly desperate and meaningless.

It's a test to see if they can suppress the black vote. You all expect "the blacks" to fall in line for Bernie because they have no other choice, but things like this matter more than you think. Black voters already feel marginalized as it is, so a choice between Sanders and Trump could result in staying at home winning. In 2020 looks like 2016 then depressed turnout in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia would put Trump back in office.

Aren't you the type of people who'll then scream that progressives should fall in line despite feeling marginalised?

Half of the Democrats on here would prefer Trump to Sanders, it seems.

In general, please be careful to avoid over generalizations, even if you didn't quite cross the line here given the overall context. I've had disagreements with many of the same posters that you have had on this board over the years but saying half would prefer Trump to Sanders is hyberbolic. I can't recall a single reliable red avatar that has said explicitly such even though there are probably some that prefer to spend more time criticizing Sanders in their posts than Trump. Not to mention that a decent chunk of red avatars on this forum support Warren or Sanders as is and many key Sanders critics on this forum (McArthur, Monroe) have said in the past they'd vote for him in a GE.

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Catching up on everything:

-I’m fine with Tilab booing but I didn’t like her but about the haters comment later in the video
-It wasn’t worth apologizing over
-Tilab should be primaried but not for this
-The usual suspects in a quick glass at Twitter to the shock of no one seem outraged over this
-Otherwise agree with peenie weenie

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I have no idea what the Democratic Party did to earn the unconditional loyalty of some people on this site. You can think it's the best of the two major parties in the US (as I do) without defending every single thing the establishment DNC does, you know. Parties aren't ideological. If 75% of this country endorsed National Socialism, then the Democrats would be tripping over each other to win the all-important Nazi vote. Stop treating this institution like it's your best friend, for God's sake. From the way people on here behave, they're either completely delusional or Hillary Clinton is holding their family in an undisclosed location somewhere.

I'll never understand the Dem fetish with Hilary Clinton either but FWIW if you think Atlas is bad, DU and DKE are x1000 worse in terms of the party hackery.

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https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1225486175017807872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Why Bernie....

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Today feels way too pro-Bernie to be feel real. Like h**ly sh**t, he might actually just blow this thing open as long as he doesn't lose NH or win very narrowly and be well on his way to at least a plurality of delegates. Sanders has slid under the radar and at Warren's height, it seemed his campaign was finished. Yet something changed when he had a heart attack. It was one of those pivotal sink or swim moments. Either things turn around for him or things sink, and the former happened. AOC and Omar and Tilab all endorsing him combined with Warren not handling frontrunner scrutiny allowed Sanders to consolidate the progressive vote and peak at the right time. Combined with Biden floundering and overall a so far inability to consolidate the anti-Sanders vote, it feels like the stars are aligning for him. It's not a done deal for Sanders by any stretch of imagination. If Biden wins SC, he still has momentum headed into ST, and there's uncertainty at how much of a factor Bloomberg could be (though a case could be made he's Sanders's biggest competition at this point which is shows how well things are going for him more than anything else IMO). Of course, Buttigeg could win NH, and send this race to pure chaos and in a few weeks I could be on the Biden train in desperation to stop Buttigeg.

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Today feels way too pro-Bernie to be feel real. Like h**ly sh**t, he might actually just blow this thing open as long as he doesn't lose NH or win very narrowly and be well on his way to at least a plurality of delegates. Sanders has slid under the radar and at Warren's height, it seemed his campaign was finished. Yet something changed when he had a heart attack. It was one of those pivotal sink or swim moments. Either things turn around for him or things sink, and the former happened. AOC and Omar and Tilab all endorsing him combined with Warren not handling frontrunner scrutiny allowed Sanders to consolidate the progressive vote and peak at the right time. Combined with Biden floundering and overall a so far inability to consolidate the anti-Sanders vote, it feels like the stars are aligning for him. It's not a done deal for Sanders by any stretch of imagination. If Biden wins SC, he still has momentum headed into ST, and there's uncertainty at how much of a factor Bloomberg could be (though a case could be made he's Sanders's biggest competition at this point which is shows how well things are going for him more than anything else IMO). Of course, Buttigeg could win NH, and send this race to pure chaos and in a few weeks I could be on the Biden train in desperation to stop Buttigeg.

The real test will be how Bernie holds up when the anti-Sanders vote does consolidate around someone.  That will happen eventually simply b/c of how afraid of him the establishment is and I've yet to see any evidence that Bernie can win when that happens.

I agree to a large extent but at that point is it too late? Their best hope would probably be a contested convention but much like 2016 on the GOP side, would fear of one, and not sure how we win a GE by having one, result in a rallying affect around Sanders? It kinda depends on how fast the anti-Sanders vote consolidates around someone and honestly given how delegate rich Super Tuesday is, the odds aren't in the favor of stopping Sanders outright or coming close to doing so.

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^ I think Adam is saying rich whites are rendering themselves irrelevant in this primary because their votes are being split between non-Bernie candidates. Not that that white voters in general don’t matter.

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Guys don't feed the trolls. I just had to delete 9 comments because of it.

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Guys don't feed the trolls. I just had to delete 9 comments because of it.

Sorry, this one was my fault.  In hindsight I was probably a bit more aggressive than was necessary.

Not referring to you and Gotfan's exchange about Sanders and the USSR (though I think you're overeacting a bit, it's not disruptive to the thread and you're obviously not here to screw around), referring to the one about Bernie and guns (in fact the only role you played that was deleted was pointing out his NRA record to someone whose literally repeated the same argument against Sanders on guns in the same exact manner for two years).