IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day! (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 01:26:32 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day! (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day!  (Read 81791 times)
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« on: March 07, 2018, 02:59:26 AM »

Why would the DCCC waste money on a safe seat?
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2018, 06:57:44 PM »

To be fair, Justice Democrats endorsed around the time Gillibrand did.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2018, 09:52:57 PM »


Waste of money on a safe seat but Pelosi doesn’t run the DCCC.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2018, 05:57:15 PM »

I'm fine with a big tent on issues like guns/abortion/immigration, but at the same time, there needs to be a difference between the two parties on economics of some sorts, at least in safe seats. If not, why have political parties at all? I'm not offended by Lipinski's social views but what I am bothered by is his vote against a centrist health care plan when he was in a blue seat.

The Blue Dog support for Lipinski is a bit baffling from an ideological prospective though given that he basically is a Republican, and there's a reason Blue Dogs on here aren't Republicans, and are usually willing to put aside one's support for abortion if they agreed with them on other issues. Rather, many here are slamming Newsman for her support for abortion. In reality, I think they fear - and to some extent I do as someone who is more left wing economically than socially and thinks party lines being driven by social issues is what's destroyed the country - that since a major source of Newman's support comes from the contrast between the two on social issues, the idea of purity becoming mainstream, specifically the idea that one must be in the mold of Kamala Harris to be a Democrat. Honestly, to me Lipinski is so bad that quite frankly at the end of the day, Marie Newman would be a much better Congresswoman than Lipinski, and I don't think the Justice Democrats have the firepower to repeatedly pull this off in race after race after race, so I'm not sure how extreme of a trend this will be. 
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2018, 09:39:34 PM »

Wow bernie, way to turn on the working class who you claim to be for. Lipinski is one of the good guys in congress and working class centrist Dems are a dying breed (Lipinski, Lynch, Peterson, Kind, etc.) My whole family was once working class democrats, but Bernie, Newman, and their whole SJW crusade jolted us across the aisle. Please, people of IL-3, keep Dan Lipinski as your congressman

Very good, great statement by a great poster.

What do you feel about the drive to remove Lipinski from office? From my understanding, this is a traditional working-class kind of district, and one with a kind of "working-class religious" tint.

Given that it swung towards Clinton in 2016, seems unlikely to be true today.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2018, 10:12:38 PM »

Wow bernie, way to turn on the working class who you claim to be for. Lipinski is one of the good guys in congress and working class centrist Dems are a dying breed (Lipinski, Lynch, Peterson, Kind, etc.) My whole family was once working class democrats, but Bernie, Newman, and their whole SJW crusade jolted us across the aisle. Please, people of IL-3, keep Dan Lipinski as your congressman

Very good, great statement by a great poster.

What do you feel about the drive to remove Lipinski from office? From my understanding, this is a traditional working-class kind of district, and one with a kind of "working-class religious" tint.

I'm disgusted by the purist purges, and I really hope Lipinski can pull through, and I think it has tightened but he still holds the advantage.

We will see what happens. Many of the Blue Dog Democrats, of a very similar cast as Lipinski, were wiped out in 2010, and had been a critical component of the old Democratic majorities in the House. By engaging in such purges, Democrats make it more difficult for themselves, and less likely that they can hold a viable coalition in the future. My hope is that things eventually go down the path as suggested in that Cordray timeline: one where Democrats return to their roots, and don't go too far out of field.  

Democrats have not had a majority without moderates in nearly a hundred years. They are cutting off a good foot by primarying Lipinskis all over the country. Because they feel as though a prosthetic would look cooler. We also need moderates to break the gridlock, and get stuff done. Extreme polarization screws us all over. We don't have enough moderates.

It's not about looking cooler. It's about trying to have the votes to do stuff like Medicare for All, Free College, paid family and medical leave, paid vacation time by law, taxing and regulating weed, and financial regulation in 2020 or whenever we get a trifecta. Have we learned anything from 2006 CT Sen? I'm generally for running economic and social moderates but run them where actually necessary.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2018, 10:41:39 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2018, 10:48:14 PM by YE »

Wow bernie, way to turn on the working class who you claim to be for. Lipinski is one of the good guys in congress and working class centrist Dems are a dying breed (Lipinski, Lynch, Peterson, Kind, etc.) My whole family was once working class democrats, but Bernie, Newman, and their whole SJW crusade jolted us across the aisle. Please, people of IL-3, keep Dan Lipinski as your congressman

Very good, great statement by a great poster.

What do you feel about the drive to remove Lipinski from office? From my understanding, this is a traditional working-class kind of district, and one with a kind of "working-class religious" tint.

I'm disgusted by the purist purges, and I really hope Lipinski can pull through, and I think it has tightened but he still holds the advantage.

We will see what happens. Many of the Blue Dog Democrats, of a very similar cast as Lipinski, were wiped out in 2010, and had been a critical component of the old Democratic majorities in the House. By engaging in such purges, Democrats make it more difficult for themselves, and less likely that they can hold a viable coalition in the future. My hope is that things eventually go down the path as suggested in that Cordray timeline: one where Democrats return to their roots, and don't go too far out of field.  

Democrats have not had a majority without moderates in nearly a hundred years. They are cutting off a good foot by primarying Lipinskis all over the country. Because they feel as though a prosthetic would look cooler. We also need moderates to break the gridlock, and get stuff done. Extreme polarization screws us all over. We don't have enough moderates.

It's not about looking cooler. It's about trying to have the votes to do stuff like Medicare for All, Free College, paid family and medical leave, paid vacation time by law, taxing and regulating weed, and financial regulation in 2020 or whenever we get a trifecta. Have we learned anything from 2006 CT Sen? I'm generally for running economic and social moderates but run them where actually necessary.

All of those objectives, I believe, follow in the tradition of the New Deal and Great Society. My personal opinion is that a Democrat who supports this, but who may still be socially moderate or conservative, wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing to have. To me, primary challenges such as this one aren't the most productive thing, because they tend to aggravate the divide between the factions within the Party.

Yes, but I wouldn't consider Lipinski someone who supports that, given he voted against Obamacare, and voted to deregulate Wall Street, and has been hesitant to favor an increase the minimum wage. They're not the most productive thing, but I don't think Justice Dems and similar organizations have the resources to pull this off in the same extent the Tea Party did, and at the end of the day, Marie Newman will be a better congresswoman than Dan Lipinski.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2018, 10:56:45 PM »

Wow bernie, way to turn on the working class who you claim to be for. Lipinski is one of the good guys in congress and working class centrist Dems are a dying breed (Lipinski, Lynch, Peterson, Kind, etc.) My whole family was once working class democrats, but Bernie, Newman, and their whole SJW crusade jolted us across the aisle. Please, people of IL-3, keep Dan Lipinski as your congressman

Very good, great statement by a great poster.

What do you feel about the drive to remove Lipinski from office? From my understanding, this is a traditional working-class kind of district, and one with a kind of "working-class religious" tint.

I'm disgusted by the purist purges, and I really hope Lipinski can pull through, and I think it has tightened but he still holds the advantage.

We will see what happens. Many of the Blue Dog Democrats, of a very similar cast as Lipinski, were wiped out in 2010, and had been a critical component of the old Democratic majorities in the House. By engaging in such purges, Democrats make it more difficult for themselves, and less likely that they can hold a viable coalition in the future. My hope is that things eventually go down the path as suggested in that Cordray timeline: one where Democrats return to their roots, and don't go too far out of field.  

Democrats have not had a majority without moderates in nearly a hundred years. They are cutting off a good foot by primarying Lipinskis all over the country. Because they feel as though a prosthetic would look cooler. We also need moderates to break the gridlock, and get stuff done. Extreme polarization screws us all over. We don't have enough moderates.

It's not about looking cooler. It's about trying to have the votes to do stuff like Medicare for All, Free College, paid family and medical leave, paid vacation time by law, taxing and regulating weed, and financial regulation in 2020 or whenever we get a trifecta. Have we learned anything from 2006 CT Sen? I'm generally for running economic and social moderates but run them where actually necessary.

All of those objectives, I believe, follow in the tradition of the New Deal and Great Society. My personal opinion is that a Democrat who supports this, but who may still be socially moderate or conservative, wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing to have. To me, primary challenges such as this one aren't the most productive thing, because they tend to aggravate the divide between the factions within the Party.

Yes, but I wouldn't consider Lipinski someone who supports that, given he voted against Obamacare, and voted to deregulate Wall Street, and has been hesitant to increase the minimum wage. They're not the most productive thing, but I don't think Justice Dems and similar organizations have the resources to pull this off in the same extent the Tea Party did, and at the end of the day, Marie Newman will be a better congresswomen than Dan Lipinski.

Although I don't agree with Newman's views on abortion, I don't have a particularly strong objection to her. If she wins, then that means the primary electorate in that district decided for a change. And she may very well be more economically progressive or populist than Lipinski. But I also caution against any efforts to knock off all moderate Democrats. I wouldn't want it to become as extreme ideologically, nor do I want the same of the Republicans.

Well, I think we're in general agreement then. There needs to be moderates to some extent in order for the government to function but that's not an excuse to sell out to big corporations in safe seats like this.   
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2018, 11:07:53 PM »

If Lipinski loses the primary, we all know things are going to get even uglier, but if he wins, does that send a large counterblow?

Most likely Newman goes for a rematch in 2020 if Lipinski wins the primary. If Lipinski losses, we may see more effort to sink guys like Henry Cellular but these sort of candidates that refuse to take corporate or PAC money puts them at a greater institutional disadvantage than say the Tea Party, and I don't see this kind of grassroots energy lasting in 2022 if a Dem wins in 2020.   
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2018, 09:22:42 PM »

I fully agree with you. And as you can see elsewhere on this thread, it seems as if people jump on you if you try to call for moderation and for greater bipartisanship. All that we say also applies to the Republican Party as well. I honestly believe our country would be better off if we had more politicians in the mold of Manchin and Collins, rather than extremists like Cruz and Harris.
I’m just seeing this now...

You think Kamala Harris, the former prosecutor who didn’t lift a finger to prosecute Steve Mnuchin, is an extremist on par with Ted Cruz, who thinks that women who seek abortions should be arrested.

Wow.

I think that many of her social views are way out of left field, particularly those on immigration.

On immigration? I'm with you and am not happy on the fact she won't accept DACA in exchange for symbolic pork known as a border wall but otherwise Kamala Harris is one of the better Democrats in the Senate even if she comes across as SJWy.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2018, 09:49:09 PM »

I fully agree with you. And as you can see elsewhere on this thread, it seems as if people jump on you if you try to call for moderation and for greater bipartisanship. All that we say also applies to the Republican Party as well. I honestly believe our country would be better off if we had more politicians in the mold of Manchin and Collins, rather than extremists like Cruz and Harris.
I’m just seeing this now...

You think Kamala Harris, the former prosecutor who didn’t lift a finger to prosecute Steve Mnuchin, is an extremist on par with Ted Cruz, who thinks that women who seek abortions should be arrested.

Wow.

I think that many of her social views are way out of left field, particularly those on immigration.

On immigration? I'm with you and am not happy on the fact she won't accept DACA in exchange for symbolic pork known as a border wall but otherwise Kamala Harris is one of the better Democrats in the Senate even if she comes across as SJWy.

Oh come on we all know Harris would have voted for that deal if she was the deciding vote.

Yes, but that vote showed she is wiling to pander to the open borders crowd. 
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2018, 10:54:44 PM »

Everyone is talking about pro-lifers going R or crossing over...but I think the bigger question is new voters. Dem enthusiasm is high, and some of these new primary voters will simply be hard dem voters who normally don't vote in a midterm primary. But others will be the Soc-Lib fiscal-con types who are angry at the GOP in the collars and are casting dem ballots in primaries for the first time. The IL GOP has always enjoyed a stronger primary position in the Collar counties and the suburbs than in the general. Will they vote Lipinski because he is the incumbent, and they are mainly moving on the gov race and Trump, or will they be Newman voters, since she matches their Social views?
Considering Lipinski is a social conservative and fiscal liberals, why would socially liberal-fiscally conservative types vote for him?

Fiscal liberals like myself don't vote against Obamacare.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2018, 07:21:11 PM »

I'm not a fan of the attacks on pro-life Dems in this thread but regardless, the problem with Lipinski isn't abortion if you ask me. It's that he voted against Obamacare.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2018, 08:26:54 PM »

Honestly if Lipinski wins at least I won't get the read a weeks worth of screaming over how all Dems must agree on social issues. I don't want populists out of the party.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2018, 08:35:10 PM »

Honestly if Lipinski wins at least I won't get the read a weeks worth of screaming over how all Dems must agree on social issues. I don't want populists out of the party.

Is Lipinski really a populist? Is Newman an elitist?

No, and no, but I'm not a fan of the attacks of Lipinski on social issues.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2018, 08:45:16 PM »

Honestly I think Newman comes up just short but it'll be very close.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2018, 08:52:24 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2018, 08:56:09 PM by YE »

Marie under 2,000

Daniel Lipinski*
37,433   51.3%   
Marie Newman
35,550   48.7   
72,983 votes, 77% reporting (384 of 500 precincts)

You're not necessarily a homophobe just by opposing gay marriage. And for me, it's perfectly reasonable if you still don't support it personally, while at the same time accepting that Obergefell is the law of the land.
Holy hell you are a terrible human being


Really? Does it really make someone a terrible human being to be unable to shake of the socialization of generations of mainstream marginalization, but still be humble enough to overcome it and accept the times are changing, despite one's personal biases? Really?

The same thing with abortion: the point at which an embryo becomes a person isn't evident to the average person - you can have your beliefs, but they are learned; they're not intuitive. Does it really make someone a terrible person to have a different understanding about when life starts? And if not, does it really make them a terrible person to place a person's survival over a second person's bodily autonomy? It's not an objective answer, it's value-based.

Personally pro-choice and pro-LGBT rights, before you go ahead and call me a bigot myself.


Edit: After actually reading your post, I agree with on the pro-choice bit the most.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2018, 08:59:48 PM »

You're not necessarily a homophobe just by opposing gay marriage. And for me, it's perfectly reasonable if you still don't support it personally, while at the same time accepting that Obergefell is the law of the land.
Holy hell you are a terrible human being
This is Dems' problem today. If you ever disagree with them, you're "a terrible human being". Totalitarian.

You are correct. And that is why I have hoped for Lipinski's victory throughout, because this kind of absolutism on the issues is poisonous to democracy.
I'm pro-choice myself, but this kind of SJW litmus-test nonsense is the reason why Dems keep losing swing voters.

At least with me my beef with Lipinski is that he takes corporate and PAC money and isn't in favor of single payer, a higher minimum wage, and free college. Newman is in favor of all those things. Newman isn't a SJW but she's being pushed by people who arrived to politics for social issues posters on Atlas.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2018, 09:10:16 PM »

WTF, Newman now leads Lipinski by 42(!!!) points in Will.

Yeah 100% sure this is an error.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2018, 09:45:22 PM »

As a populist Democrat who supported Newman, this thread is just cancer for me. 
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2018, 09:54:03 PM »

One more post supporting a Nazi and I'm locking this.

Who's doing this?

IIRC the OP can lock any thread the OP creates. 
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2018, 09:58:10 PM »

Now Lipinski is probably going to shift even more far to the right.

He's either gonna get outed with Bernie Sanders on top of the ticket in 2020 or he'll start voting like a left winger to keep his seat. Or both. Or he'll retire in 2020.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2018, 10:42:00 PM »

Wow the NRCC is really bad at this:






Is there even a Berniecrat in IL-13? Not sure how the candidate is tied to Warren/Sanders.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2018, 10:55:58 PM »

Not conceding, selling souls out to neo nazis, I wonder where else I have seen this lately...

She's Illinois' very own Roy Moore.

Dude what the f**k. Comparing a candidate from an uncalled race who will not yet concede to a pedophile who said we were better off when we had slavery.... like seriously is classless hyperbole.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,947


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2018, 11:10:26 PM »

I'd write-in Newman in November if I lived in the district.

Fair enough, see that is respectable. Supporting a neo-nazi, well... NO.
Who here is supporting a neo-nazi?

I'd vote for Lipinski in the GE if I lived in the district tbh.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 9 queries.