Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Bacon King]

los progresistas

[Bacon King]

Moreover, these elections became boring with the end of the grain deal. Spain was the biggest parasite of the "Grain deal for poor countries (lmao)" and with it they avoided the inflation levels of other European countries, now that it has collapsed, the fake system they created is going to collapse and it will hurt much more than in other European countries

there's so much wrong here i don't even know where to start

1. the point of the Black Sea grain deal was never about delivering that same grain directly to low income countries - that's not at all how global markets work. After making it through the corridor, Ukrainian grain was getting sold at basically the same ports where it was shipped before the war. This makes grain cheaper for people in low-income countries because the increase in global supply causes a decrease in global price.

2. You do realize the grain was still sold at full market value, right? Just because Spain is one of the largest direct buyers of Ukrainian grain, it doesn't make them "parasites" which is kind of an absurd word to throw around. They didn't benefit any more than the rest of the world from the reduced prices

3. Numbers for you btw from 2022: 19% of Spanish grain imports are from Ukraine. 18% of Ukrainian exports are to Spain. It's really not like Spain is monolithically gobbling it up, either: Ukraine exports a bigger share to China.

4. Spain has so many imports right now only because it's seen two years of serious droughts in its own grain-producing regions - it's not like they are historically reliant on huge volumes of grain from Ukraine or anywhere else; this is not a long-term problem.

5. Recognizing the likely risk of importing grain from a warzone, Spain has been reducing its grain imports from Ukraine since shortly after the war began, buying more from Latin America instead

6. Loss of reliable access to Ukrainian grain won't hurt Spain's inflation any more than it will the rest of Europe. Like I said above: it's a global market, remember? Grain prices are going up everywhere.

7. Lastly, and most importantly: the low Spanish inflation rate is almost entirely thanks to the "Iberian exception" exempting them from certain EU energy market rules which was recently renewed thru the end of the year. Spain's inflation rate isn't going anywhere in the short term

[Bacon King]

election night question for the locals and other subject matter experts: do Spanish elections have any general patterns or trends for when certain votes are reported?

e.g. do you expect early returns to disproportionately favor certain parties? do some regions consistently count their votes more quickly?

[Bacon King]

How soon does vote counting start?

the first phase of the count (around 21:00 CET)

[Bacon King]

It seems that Feijóo will make a desperate attempt to survive, claiming the party with the most votes has the right to govern.

literally Stephen Harper

[Bacon King]

Is tactical voting meaningful in a proportional system ?

in a system where most constituencies elect just 3, 4, or 5 members? certainly.

[Bacon King]

ElDiario has some good graphics on seats that are still in play pending the CERA vote.
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/ultimo-escano-provincia-ganadores-perderdores-en-directo_1_10394283.html

how do Catalan seperatists perform in CERA votes? because don't look now but Junts is extremely close to losing two seats!

one to PP in Girona and one to PSC in Tarragona

[Bacon King]

For example, as far as I know, Congress cannot intervene in the distribution of funds to the autonomous communities, which corresponds to the Senate. And that can really screw Sánchez if he starts promising to give away money to the separatists.

I'm fairly certain this is not true

afaik there's only one situation where the Senate has any sort of exclusive jurisdiction over autonomous communities: authorizing the dissolution/suspension of elected governments that blatantly violate Spanish law (e.g. Catalonia in 2017) per Section 155 of the Spanish Constitution. Even here the Senate can't act independently: the Prime Minister's government must itself seek the intervention, the Senate just decides whether to authorize it.

1. If a Self-governing Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of the Self-governing Community and failed to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the above-mentioned general interest.

2. With a view to implementing the measures provided for in the foregoing paragraph, the Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Self-governing Communities.

(English translation c/o the Spanish government's own official website)

[Bacon King]

I see Harlow and Battista Minola have already posted excellent rebuttals to BigSerg's latest absurd take, saying basically everything I wanted to say when I first read the post last night

instead of repeating their words I'm just gonna cover one specific point they missed

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos.

This statement betrays your incredible ignorance about Spain's politics and elections

consider the following!

After the November 2019 elections, Sanchez was formally reelected Prime Minister by the Congress of Deputies in an investiture vote on January 7th, 2020.

167 voted for Sanchez, 165 voted against him, and 18 abstained

now let's remove EVERY deputy from Catalonia. All 48 of them, gone. What's the result without any Catalan representation?

148 votes for Sanchez, 149 votes against him, and 5 abstentions.

Is this your "perpetual victory" for the right? a net swing of three seats?

Far from PSOE and Podemos "disappearing" from the rest of Spain, the pro-Sanchez coalition still held HALF of the non-Catalan seats last term!

Like he'd still easily be elected Prime Minister of "the rest of Spain" here, he'd just need to win over the regionalists in Cantabria (or either Canaries or Asturias)

My friend, either you are smoking crack and have no idea what you're talking about or you're a shameless troll knowingly spouting nonsense. Either way it'd be really cool if you could maybe stop

[Bacon King]

Still, with this there’s no workable majority even if EAJ/PNV also supports Sanchez and both Catalonian parties abstain. Would need ERC to vote for him.

I'm no expert here but my impression is that securing the abstention of Junts is an even bigger ask right now than ERC voting in favor

[Bacon King]

PP are trying to lobby PSOE figures individually, hoping for them to vote for Feijoo, and Vox have said they will abstain in case Feijoo builds this majority. It's still a pipe dream but the impass with the Catalans + the PSOE having previous with defectors who just care about careerism means this could be an interesting development...

For those keeping score at home, Feijoo would need support from 21 of PSOE's 122 deputies to pull this off, assuming this PP minority government also has the support of both UPN and CC. Also possible if 42 PSOE deputies could be persuaded to abstain (or possibly some mix of the two)

With PSOE members voting for PP government

Yes = 159 (136 PP, 21 PSOE, 1 UPN, 1 CC)
No = 158 (101 PSOE, 31 Sumar, 7 ERC, 7 Junts, 6 Bildu, 5 PNV, 1 BNG)
Abstain = 33 (Vox)


With PSOE members abstaining

Yes = 138 (136 PP, 1 UPN, 1 CC)
No = 137 (80 PSOE, 31 Sumar, 7 ERC, 7 Junts, 6 Bildu, 5 PNV, 1 BNG)
Abstain = 75 (42 PSOE, 33 Vox)

[Bacon King]

almost forgot to respond to the big guy

Just look at the amount of fools that give you "recommend" English and illiterate Americans who do not know the reality of Spain. Let me explain, I have Spanish nationality, I lived in Catalonia for years and I know its parliamentary system to perfection. Any Spaniard with an IQ above 1 would agree with me on this, but seeing that pitifully most Anglo-Saxons are intellectually deficient and like to comment on the politics of other countries without having a clue, I will enlighten you a bit with facts.

lol

lmao, even

2019 was the worst bad faith comparison you could find for a very simple reason, the right split into three different parties Cs, Vox and PP, resulting in the worst possible voting efficiency. Not to mention that the distribution of seats would be different and probably another electoral law would be needed.

In these elections the results would be like this:

Spain without Cat: Right: 161 seats
                            Left+Pnv: 139 seats

2016:

Spain without Cat: Right: 159 seats
                            Left+Pnv: 144 seats

2008:

Spain without Cat: Right: 156 seats
                            Left+Pnv: 146 seats


In terms of votes, in all cases the right would have a consistent lead of more than five points in all elections. Without Catalonia, the right would overwhelmingly dominate in all elections, barring exceptional cases of right-wing vote splitting, such as in 2019 or a massive terrorist attack as in 2004.

You made a claim about the current state of affairs, so I looked at the investiture vote of the current government. So misleading of me!

I find it hilarious you're attempting to win this argument... by categorically disproving literally the very statement we're arguing about

as a reminder, this was your very silly claim:

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos.

now I know my intellectually deficient Anglo-Saxon mind is no match for a big brain genius like you but I don't think it's really accurate to say "it a fact that the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory without Catalonia" when the mere existence of a third right wing party is all it takes for the right to lose. Not very perpetual if you ask me!

Also if the PSOE and Podemos really have "disappeared from the rest of Spain" when why is the right's margin of victory so narrow in all those results you listed? You're demonstrating the left still consistently wins like 47% of non-Catalan seats in every election, that REALLY doesn't sound like anyone has disappeared to me




Here's my point: even if you ignore the fact that PP would be committing electoral suicide if they allowed an independent Catalonia, even if you ignore all the very obvious reasons why they'd never support Catalan secession, even if you only look at the numbers in a vacuum of what recent elections would have been like without any votes from the region, even then you are still wrong. Your so-called "perpetual victory" is in truth just a marginal advantage that only exists in the absence of extenuating circumstances

That's literally nothing lol

[Bacon King]

I pointed out that if CERA was even slightly helpful for PP they were quite close to gaining a seat in Madrid and another in Girona

La Rioja and Girona are incomplete

how close is PP to winning this Girona seat?

[Bacon King]

I'm not sure I follow why PP gaining this seat means Junts needs to vote 'yes' rather than abstain?

you appear to have answered your own question:

PP/Vox/UPN = 171
PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG/CC = 172
Junts = 7

I don't think the math has changed in a meaningful way regarding Junts, but PSOE now absolutely needs CC, which in my understanding is the most questionable inclusion, since they have promised not to support a government which includes Sumar or Vox. If they're serious about that, then this goes to new elections, but it could also be posturing. (With the earlier seat count, CC could've also abstained and PSOE still taken office.)

The consensus opinion seems to take their statement at face value, that they can't be persuaded to do anything more than agree to abstain (if even that, not that it matters now)

[Bacon King]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

[Bacon King]

CC previously ruled out any cooperation with governments containing either Vox or Sumar, but now they are conditionally walking back that hardline stance and leaving the door open for negotiation with Sanchez

The party's elected deputy has now announced she's willing to enter a bilateral negotiation with either side. She still makes it clear that her party continues to maintain a great distance from the "extreme right", but now she's acknowledging CC shares common ground with Yolanda Diaz and Sumar (specifically naming a minimum wage law and adjusting pensions for inflation as two occasions where they have worked together in the past)

Not sure how likely this is at all but if CC votes for Sanchez then he only needs Junts to abstain

[Bacon King]

other than in the XI Legislature, in every general election held since the Constitution entered into force, the candidate of the political group which obtained the greatest number of seats has been the first to be proposed

I would argue that even this exception doesn't really count - the King went with Sanchez after the 2015 election only because Rajoy had already preemptively turned it down

[Bacon King]

The PP will talk with Junts, while a spokesperson says the "tradition" and the "legality" of Junts are "beyond doubt"

lmao so they're legitimizing Junts, establishing the precedent that "it's totally acceptable for a Spanish political party to make deals with Catalan secessionists, and even to rely on their support to form a government!"

they're literally just making the job easier for Sanchez once it's officially his turn

[Bacon King]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-08-27/feijoo-pnv-investidura-jose-alberto-pradera_3724608/

unless I'm missing something this is just the opinion of one guy?

Sure he used to be a PNV provincial leader, but he also left office three decades ago. He's clearly not aligned with the current party leadership or else he wouldn't be complaining about them to the press

I doubt this man's preferences are at all indicative of the current PNV

[Bacon King]

The current PNV voted together with the PP and the "other Vox", Cs the previous legislature.

It's really not accurate to compare C's to Vox, though? Your second link above is from immediately after the 2016 election, which if memory serves was back when that party was still pretending to be progressive. And even after their rightward shift they were still positioned as center-right liberals. Sure they were hardline centralists, resolutely opposed to peripheral nationalism, but that's still IMO nothing even remotely close to Vox, who are not only far-right but are also much more fiercely opposed to the Catalan/Basque parties than C's ever was.

Also could you elaborate on when it was that PNV backed the formation of a PP government alongside C's? Because it definitely wasn't in 2016, that's when PSOE abstained to allow a PP minority government after the party leadership canned Sanchez for refusing to do so. PNV voted against PP then and I'm like 90% sure that PNV has voted against PP in every investiture vote that's happened since (phone-posting this, so i can't look it up myself to verify rn)

Would very much appreciate if you could explain more for this ignorant American

[Bacon King]

The Bureau of the Congress of Deputies has officially granted ERC and Junts their own parliamentary groups thanks to a deal that PSOE and Sumar made with those two parties.

Certain thresholds must be met to form a parliamentary group: 15 members in total; or at least 5 members from lists that won either 5% nationwide, or an average of 15% in the constituencies where they ran. This latter requirement granted Bildu and PNV their own groups, but both Catalan parties fell short.

To bring ERC and Junts up to 15% each Sumar let ERC temporarily borrow two of their members, and PSOE loaned 4 to Junts (afterwards the people from Sumar and PSOE simply rejoined their own party parliamentary groups). This has been done several times before in various circumstances, but nevertheless PP and Vox both spoke against it.

It's a big deal for a party to have its own parliamentary group: 42,570 Euros per month in funding (or more, based on size), guaranteed placement on every committee, full privileges during debates, the right to introduce their own legislation, and in the next election their participation in televised debates is now guaranteed



Similar deals are planned in the Senate where the rules are simpler: 10 Senators for a group to form, and it's abolished if it falls below 6. ERC doesn't need help because they always form a shared group with EH Bildu; instead in the upper chamber it's PNV and Junts who need to borrow members. This deal is facing resistance from the Senate's PP leadership though, who are waiting on a report they've commissioned to determine whether it's actually legal (they were not concerned with the legality of these arrangements in the previous Senate, when they allowed C's to borrow a PP Senator)

[Bacon King]

btw its kind of wild that PP claims to be genuinely courting the support of PNV right now despite simultaneously going out of their way to screw over the PNV Senate delegation