2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[mijan]

The return rates are astonishing in Iowa. Dems are at nearly 80% with 13 days to go.

R needs a very high turnout on election day or Trump is done there.

[mijan]

PA update: 1.18 million have now voted. Dems still account for 72% of returns (847K) versus 227k (19%) for Republicans.

Dem return rate at 46.4%, Rep return rate still lagging at 31.9%.

D +620 k
Unstoppable D across PA,MI,WI,MN,IA.

[mijan]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

[mijan]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

In 2018 Dem early vote lead was smaller than 2016 mate. So it was a huge red sign before election day.

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats has been updated.
IA-1
D 92664
R 47015
D+ 45649

IA-2
D  91775
R 46603
D+ 45172

IA-3
D 92411
R 48850
D+ 43561

IA-4
D 59930
R 57118
D+ 2812

Total
D 336780
R 199586
D+ 137194
Total 649483 people voted early

D have added another 1500 votes to their lead.

R are slowly closing return rate gap with Dem. They have cut D's advantage in IA 4 from 4300 yesterday to 2800 today but still lose the day to Dem due to Dem's strength in other three districts.

POLK county still has relatively low return rate Dem should concentrate on that county to increase their lead more.

860393 people requested for early voting. Yesterday it was 842000 ,so 18000 new people requested early vote. If the momentum continue another 150000 people will request ballots.

Therefore I think more than 1 million Iowan will vote early. Which is around 64% of 2016.

[mijan]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

There is no true early voting in Iowa but you can vote in person by going to the County Auditors office, requesting, filing out, and returning an absentee all in one stop. That inflates return rates.

Yes, but it is still encouraging.

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats has been updated.
IA-1
D 92664
R 47015
D+ 45649

IA-2
D  91775
R 46603
D+ 45172

IA-3
D 92411
R 48850
D+ 43561

IA-4
D 59930
R 57118
D+ 2812

Total
D 336780
R 199586
D+ 137194
Total 649483 people voted early

D have added another 1500 votes to their lead.

R are slowly closing return rate gap with Dem. They have cut D's advantage in IA 4 from 4300 yesterday to 2800 today but still lose the day to Dem due to Dem's strength in other three districts.

POLOK county still has relatively low return rate Dem should concentrate on that county to increase their lead more.

860393 people requested for early voting. Yesterday it was 842000 ,so 18000 new people requested early vote. If the momentum continue another 150000 people will request ballots.

Therefore I think more than 1 million Iowan will vote early. Which is around 64% of 2016.

Well known bellwether, Polok County IA will tell us who wins this election.
I think the media should cover it a bit more considering how pivotal the margins here are.

Iowa's 6 electoral vote may not be important but Iowa's senate seat is essential for Dem majority in senate.
Otherwise Dem will become hostage of Joe Manchin will.

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats has been updated.
IA-1
D 92664
R 47015
D+ 45649

IA-2
D  91775
R 46603
D+ 45172

IA-3
D 92411
R 48850
D+ 43561

IA-4
D 59930
R 57118
D+ 2812

Total
D 336780
R 199586
D+ 137194
Total 649483 people voted early

D have added another 1500 votes to their lead.

R are slowly closing return rate gap with Dem. They have cut D's advantage in IA 4 from 4300 yesterday to 2800 today but still lose the day to Dem due to Dem's strength in other three districts.

POLOK county still has relatively low return rate Dem should concentrate on that county to increase their lead more.

860393 people requested for early voting. Yesterday it was 842000 ,so 18000 new people requested early vote. If the momentum continue another 150000 people will request ballots.

Therefore I think more than 1 million Iowan will vote early. Which is around 64% of 2016.

Well known bellwether, Polok County IA will tell us who wins this election.
I think the media should cover it a bit more considering how pivotal the margins here are.

Iowa's 6 electoral vote may not be important but Iowa's senate seat is essential for Dem majority in senate.
Otherwise Dem will become hostage of Joe Manchin will.

I think he's just mocking your typo of "Polk" but you're definitely right there. My greatest fear is having senate policy hinge on Manchin/Sinema

Sorry for typo. Yea, remember how Lieberman and Nelson of Nebraska behaved during 2009& 2010.

[mijan]

https://twitter.com/IowaSOS/status/1319677467452411904?s=20

[mijan]

DEMS advantage is somewhat stalled at 137k votes in Iowa compare to yesterday.

Dems again lost lead in IA 4 and their lead have come down to 1468

However, Dems are keep going hard in other three districts.

685234 people  have voted early.
Another  17 k people  have  requested early ballots today

Rep have cut Dem's lead in requested ballot to 153 k from  156 k in last 10 days .
However , I think  it is too late for GOP.

I think about 60-65 % people will vote early  and if Dems able to keep  150 k vote lead then GOP in a big trouble.

[mijan]

In IA 1 there are  181326 active Dems
95726 D voted early .
112646 D requested ballots .
52.79% active Dems have already voted.
62.18% active Dems requested ballots.

In IA 2 there are 182364 active Dems
95205 D voted early.
116299 D requested ballots.
52.20% active Dems have already voted.
63.78% active Dems requested ballots.

In IA 3 there are 197004 active Dems
96718 D voted early

122076 D requested ballots.
49.09% active  Dems have already voted.
61.97% active Dems requested ballots.

In IA 4 there are 129557 active Dems
62720 D voted early
77890 D requested ballots.
48.41% active  Dems have already voted.
60.12% active Dems requested ballots.

[mijan]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

[mijan]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

Just  like you have said it is something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop

[mijan]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

Just  like you have said it is something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop

In fact, tomorrow is the first Saturday for in person absentee voting.  Don't think that counties do more than one site though.  I'd expect overall early voting to end up around 850,000.

Already 876000 people have requested ballots.I think it will over 900k.