2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[DaleCooper]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

If Biden triages Florida then he practically deserves to lose.

[wbrocks67]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

If Biden triages Florida then he practically deserves to lose.

Literally no one is saying he is/will be doing that. What are you people talking about?

[Bootes Void]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

[indietraveler]

What's up with some of these states that haven't updated recently? Like Minnesota. Is there going to be an incoming vote dump soon?

[wbrocks67]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

Yes, for Republicans currently.

[wbrocks67]

What's up with some of these states that haven't updated recently? Like Minnesota. Is there going to be an incoming vote dump soon?

I believe MN only updates once a week, on Fridays I think

[Non Swing Voter]

What's up with some of these states that haven't updated recently? Like Minnesota. Is there going to be an incoming vote dump soon?

I believe MN only updates once a week, on Fridays I think

Correct

[DaleCooper]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

If Biden triages Florida then he practically deserves to lose.

Literally no one is saying he is/will be doing that. What are you people talking about?

I was responding to the post I quoted, which suggested he give up on the key swing state of Florida.

[Non Swing Voter]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

What are you talking about?  Democrats still have a huge lead even though we've had 4 days of early voting.  Democrats just need to keep pace with Republicans in Florida because Independents are probably going to break for Biden.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Biden triages Pennsylvania, he deserves to lose the election.

TBH I don't know how to interpret Florida numbers at all.  Do we have any polls showing the expected partisan split of VBM/Early/E-Day?  If Trump is going to win election day 70-30 (as in Texas), then it's bad news for Dems that VBM is already drying up.

On the other hand, it's tough to really say anything definitively when Broward and Miami-Dade have such outsized influence.  Broward is at 28.8% and Miami-Dade 26% of registered voters, while the entire state is at 28.1%.  So it's not like Democrats have already burned through their Miami/Broward vote cache.

This is in opposition to Texas, where you can clearly see the Democrat early-vote advantage based on geography.  The suburbs are already getting close to 100% of their 2016 turnout, well ahead of the state as a whole, which tells us that suburban Democrats are enthusiastic and turning out early, aligning with the expectation that Democratic constituencies will represent an outsized portion of the early vote.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Biden triages Pennsylvania, he deserves to lose the election.

Who's discussing Biden triaging a state where Trump hasn't led in a single poll since July? Did you mean "if Biden triages Florida"?

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Biden triages Pennsylvania, he deserves to lose the election.

Who's discussing Biden triaging a state where Trump hasn't led in a single poll since July? Did you mean "if Biden triages Florida"?

No I'm just making fun of Lief

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Biden triages Pennsylvania, he deserves to lose the election.

Who's discussing Biden triaging a state where Trump hasn't led in a single poll since July? Did you mean "if Biden triages Florida"?

No I'm just making fun of Lief

Gotcha.

[Gass3268]

In the most recent Navigator Poll it does say that only 19% of Biden voters will vote on election day, compared to 46% for Trump on election day.

That said 34% of 18-44 year olds are saying they will be voting on election day. That is the highest % of any age group. Also 27% of Black voters say they will be voting early, but in person. Are there still plans for Souls to the Polls this Sunday and next?

Source

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

[Tender Branson]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

ALL polls said that Dems would almost exclusively vote by mail or early, while Rs would vote on election day.

NO SURPRISE.

[wbrocks67]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

ALL polls said that Dems would almost exclusively vote by mail or early, while Rs would vote on election day.

NO SURPRISE.

Dems return rate is higher than Rs, and the fact that Dems have returned more shows that they are more enthused right now. Reps have a huge hill to climb in IA if these #s stay the same thru Election Day.

[Holmes]

I find it interesting how you can tell pretty well just which states have a culture of VBM/early voting and which states are new to it by turnout and how well each state/county is reporting their turnout numbers.

[wbrocks67]

In the most recent Navigator Poll it does say that only 19% of Biden voters will vote on election day, compared to 46% for Trump on election day.

That said 34% of 18-44 year olds are saying they will be voting on election day. That is the highest % of any age group. Also 27% of Black voters say they will be voting early, but in person. Are there still plans for Souls to the Polls this Sunday and next?

Source

Yeah, I was wondering the same. Souls to the Polls usually spikes the AA vote on weekends in LA, GA, NC, etc

[Tender Branson]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

ALL polls said that Dems would almost exclusively vote by mail or early, while Rs would vote on election day.

NO SURPRISE.

Dems return rate is higher than Rs, and the fact that Dems have returned more shows that they are more enthused right now. Reps have a huge hill to climb in IA if these #s stay the same thru Election Day.

From what I remember during previous elections, Dems return ballots faster in IA, Reps close the gap closer to election day ...

[wbrocks67]

McDonald's website updated for FL.

Dems 1,926,055 (45.3%)
Reps 1,463,281 (34.4%)
Total 4,256,102

4.3 million votes cast and Dems hold a +463K lead.

[Non Swing Voter]

McDonald's website updated for FL.

Dems 1,926,055 (45.3%)
Reps 1,463,281 (34.4%)
Total 4,256,102

4.3 million votes cast and Dems hold a +463K lead.

And Miami Dade is starting to turn out.

I think this will be the first time we see 1 million votes out of Miami Dade.

Would be amazing if we can get Broward up to 1 million as well.

[Gass3268]

We've now passed the 1/3 of 2016 turnout threshold nationwide.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Seems important.

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1319328824769859585

[Minnesota Mike]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

There is no true early voting in Iowa but you can vote in person by going to the County Auditors office, requesting, filing out, and returning an absentee all in one stop. That inflates return rates.