AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

GOOD!

Bye bye Flake.

We need to Senators who want to MAGA.

60+ seats in 2018 is possible.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I'm finding it hilarious that Republicans on here are trying to spin this as a positive news story for them....lol.

Are you kidding me? This is the best news I've heard all week!

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

If Flake, the Republican incumbent Senator resigning is considered good for the GOP, then that might just go to show how bad their prospects in Arizona were looking already. An open seat in a competitive state in what is almost surely going to be a bad year for them is the last thing Republicans should want.

Flake is a disaster.

This is a good sign for 2018 because now Trump can get people to push his agenda.

The GOP will be fine in Arizona - although it will be tougher, but worth it.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Flake's retirement also kills Ward's chances. She is no Roy Moore, who had built deep support among GOP voters in his state over the years. In AZ, an establishment R with Trump's support will easily beat Ward.

Arizona is more GOP Establishment friendly than Alabama, yes. People want Trumpism though.

Ward can win with Trump's support - I am interested at seeing what Trump does now.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I'm finding it hilarious that Republicans on here are trying to spin this as a positive news story for them....lol.

Are you kidding me? This is the best news I've heard all week!

Okay...so you would rather have an open seat rather than a R-incumbent in a Trump midterm???

I don't care how awful Flake was,  you don't want open seats in a midterm,  it's a bad, negative thing for Republicans no matter how you spin it.

During the GOP primaries I said "I'd rather lose with Trump than win with Jeb!."

Winning with someone like Flake isn't even worth it. I'd rather struggle with someone like Ward.

The GOP will be fine in 2018.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Anyone got a link to Jeff DeWit's positions? I google but can't get anything.

I do get that DeWit endorsed Trump during the Arizona primary, so that's good.

I am reading about him right now and really like what I see. Gotta see positions first but so far so good. I don't care about social issues.

Dang I wish Ward won the 2016 primary.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

No please let them underestimate her.

I LOVE being the underdog. It's why Trump continues to win.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump broke Flake.

Yet another person who goes up against Trump and loses.

When will people realize that it's a useless gesture to up against Trump? If you're going to take a shot at the king you best not miss.

Scott Walker, Jeb!, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, the media, Bob Corker, Jeff Flake.... the list goes on and on. All victims of Trump's dominance.

Trump just wins. It's what he does.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are.

McCain won 54-42 in 2016.

Trump actually did BETTER among Latinos than Romney did.

Trump dropped with white voters, but if he even picks HALF of them back he easily wins Arizona in 2020 by  5-7 points.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema over Ward? Highly likely I imagine.

That would be a huge endorsement for Ward tbh.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This is good news for the Republican Party.

A Ward blowout in the primary over Flake or a brutal primary fight would have helped Sinema immensely. Now that's not happening. I have it moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, but that's based on the assumption that Ward wins her primary. If she doesn't, it's Tilts Democratic at best, and honestly probably a tossup.

Jeff Flake, while I won't particularly miss you, (you pissed me off in Manchin-Toomey and you only pretend to be anti-Trump while doing jack squat) I hope you lead a happy and fulfilling life once your time in the Senate is done.

I am sorry to say but you're wrong - the GOP will be fine in 2018.

Expect a 7-9 point victory for either Ward or Dewit.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This is more bad than good for the GOP...

Not if the GOP nominates a Trumpian candidate (DeWit or Ward).

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I've never been so excited for a future senator like I am for Sinema. She's a rockstar.

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Interesting...

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Nope.

Once they use the "we'll make them pay back taxes" I immediately know they're a fraud.

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I could be wrong about my overall characterization of the 2018 midterms. There are two assumptions I'm using that lead to my Leans Democratic characterization.

1. 2018 will be a bad year overall for the Republican Party.

This is based on Trump's approval rating, generic ballot numbers, and historical trends. Midterms are almost always bad for the party in power. The only exceptions in the last half century were after a botched impeachment and 9/11. Even Reagan had two bad midterms. Remember that in the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP was less popular than Obama. Didn't matter. So in that kind of national environment, Sinema is probably favored in Arizona, especially for an open seat.

2. Kelly Ward fits a pattern of failed GOP Senate candidates, and would be the underdog even if the national environment favored the GOP.

This does NOT apply to DeWitt. But Ward strikes many of the same chords as Sharon Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, et cetera. Angle lost in Nevada even in the Tea Party Wave, against Harry Reid.

2016 changed nothing when it comes to GOP senate candidates. Almost every GOP win on the Senatorial level was with an incumbent, and Todd Young is no Richard Murdock.

What about the Trump effect? The Black Swan effect?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

"Trump has NO chance to..." then he ends up doing it.

"Trump has NO chance to win the GOP nomination" then he ends up winning it.

"Trump has NO chance to win 270 electoral votes" then he ends up doing that.

etc. etc.

"Trump will not make it to the first GOP debate"

"Trump will not make it to Iowa"

"This is the beginning of the end for Trump"

"Trump will not get 1,237 delegates"

"Trump will not win the nomination by May the math is just not there"

"Trump will not win the Wisconsin recount" (ends up IMPROVING his margin)

"Trump will get a ton of faithless electors" (Clinton ended up getting more and got the most in 100 years)

The "Trump effect" in essence is the fact he's always right and you're always wrong.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

It's like how Paul Ryan in 2014 said Obama's DACA order was "unconstitutional" and wrong, but the second Trump rescinds it he goes nuts and says he shouldn't have did that.

It's like how GOP Senators pretended to be against subsidies for Obamacare and "forced" Obama to do it via executive order, yet when Trump rescinds those, all of a sudden Schumer has magically "found" the correct number of Republicans he needs (12) to pass the subsidies in Congress.

Wow! What a total shock.

I love how Trump is not only draining the swamp, but exposing it for all to see.

It's beautiful.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This is what US politics has devolved into. If you speak out against bad conduct by the party's figurehead, you're shunned by the noisy fringe of the party, regardless of how often you vote with that figurehead.

Flake is no friend of Trump.

And that's fine - he knows his fate and has accepted it.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

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Because Collins/McCain/Murkowski voted against repealing it.

Flake didn't need to expose himself.

People gotta learn about politics - the GOP Establishment never had any intention to replace Obamacare which is why I feel a 2018 Trumpian revolution is necessary.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

The key issue here is that the "Trump effect" as you describe it only applies to Trump himself. There doesn't seem to be a "Residual Trump effect" that carries over to Non-Trump Republican candidates. Or to the extent that there might be, it's shaky at best. Trump, after all, did endorse Luther Strange, but Strange did not defy expectations to win his election.

Strange lost to a Trumpian candidate though.

People like Trumpism. Trump needs to realize that too.

Also the Georgia House race was a "referendum on Trump" when everyone though Handel would lose.

The GOP will be fine in 2018 - 60+ seats is in reach.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Btw, Flake is an utter scumbag whose son used "n1--erkiller" as an online username. I hope these "moderate" Republican senators all get primaried by less "respectable" wackos.  

In all fairness what did Jeff say about that? If he defended it then yeah that's scumbaggish, but if he totally condemned his son then why the beef with Flake?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

That's not the same thing, though. Donald Trump the man and Trumpism the ideology are separate entities, and I would argue we've yet to see Trumpism without Trump actually tested in an electoral context.

Roy Moore isn't Trumpist. Trump was never tied to the evangelical movement, and indeed won by making large gains among non-religious whites. Moore's been his own thing for a long, long time.

What I mean by "Trumpist" is someone who is anti-Establishment and pro-Trump.

Trump made a huge mistake endorsing Strange over a Trumpian candidate. People WANT Trumpism.

I think it's best not to underestimate Trump or Trumpers, because they end up proving a lot of people wrong. For example do Corker or Flake drop out if Clinton won in 2016?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

As much as I hate to agree, you're absolutely right on this. Dems seem to be unable or unwilling to learn that their wishful thinking is not always going to manifest into reality. Dems were crushed by 2014, crushed by 2016, crushed by the loss of Ossoff and Quist, and will be crushed again by the loss of Jones if they don't stop kidding themselves.

With that said, you're being just as bad. Trump is not an invincible titan. He lost the popular vote by a significant margin and only won the three decisive states by <1%. He is definitely beatable in 2020.

Trump ran a god awful campaign though.

He didn't spend any money because a) he's a tightwad and b) he wasn't sure he was going to win. Now that he knows he can win then perhaps he will put more money/effort into not only 2020 but 2018 as well.

He only spent $5 per vote in 2016, so if he doubles that then there knows no bounds.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Guys, do you actually think debating with a user named "60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED" is going to yield any success or insight? I mean, and believe it or not but I say this with no malice intended, but ahugecat is exceedingly arrogant and stubborn in his opinions. There is literally nothing to be gained by arguing with him except if you wish to see more than one version of his argument.

and ahugecat please keep in mind that these are open discussion threads for everyone and not just one or two users to monopolize conversation and/or derail the thread entirely.

Don't you think Trump supporters deserve to be a little arrogant after having to deal with the other side's arrogance from June 16th-November 9th? This thread is like a November 7th general election thread. People criticize the Trump supporter and s/he ends up being right. In all fairness I am keeping the conversation about the 2018 Arizona Senate race - I am VERY excited and happy Flake is done. A huge victory (no Trump I am not tired of winning) for Trump.