2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

Does anyone have any info on the Puerto Rican statehood referendum?

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1323857500500905984

with a republican senate, this is going nowhere

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Nevada's coming in, its look like Biden will narrowly win it

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That Pennsylvania margin is really starting to look a bit too much.

what do you mean by that?

 Biden is matching Clinton % in the rurals and VBM is more dem friendly. Keep that in mind along him beating his totals in the southeast PA

[Bootes Void]

Check out the California county map. Sheer devastation so far for California Republicans.

How is Biden winning Kern and losing San Joaquin?

reverse counting bias

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Biden creeping up In Wisconsin and he may pull it off

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Trump's Pennsylvania lead is looking insurmountable at this point  

Don't forget VBM.

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i have heard alot of talk about Biden doing bad with Black Voters, but here is his share among the black vote by state(exit polls)

Mich:91%
Wis:93%
Pa: 92%
NC:91%
Ga:87%(surprise)
FL:89%
VA:90%
SC:89%(trump has 7%)
Al:90%
OH:91%

He did fine with black voters but much weaker among hispanics and middle aged voters

[Bootes Void]

i have heard alot of talk about Biden doing bad with Black Voters, but here is his share among the black vote by state(exit polls)

Mich:91%
Wis:93%
Pa: 92%
NC:91%
Ga:87%(surprise)
FL:89%
VA:90%
SC:89%(trump has 7%)
Al:90%
OH:91%

He did fine with black voters but much weaker among hispanics and middle aged voters

Turnout matters more than exact margin with blacks.

This wasnt a low turnout election by any means

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https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/1323878083716435968

How much vote are we looking at out of Wisconsin?

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How much vote is there out of Milwaukee?

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Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

So he's underperforming Clinton in a city he NEEDS to win.

Call it for Trump already.

Biden hasnt underperformed clinton in any urban areas and I think this batch will be fairly dem friendly

[Bootes Void]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

Clinton got 288k total and a 160k lead .

oh my bad, this isnt good for Biden, recount territory?

[Bootes Void]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

It's a close nail biter but I put my money on Trump being reelected.

I think Biden narrowly pulls of Ga. Pa is also likely to go dem when VBM comes in

[Bootes Void]

Nevada looks tight, how you feeling about this? Narrow Biden win?

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Whens Milwaukee dropping?

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is Milwaukee dropping at 3am?

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https://www.tmj4.com/electionblog

Latest updates:

1:22 p.m. -- Milwaukee ballots just shy of 2016 total

Milwaukee had 78,160 voters at the polls on Election Day. Including absentee votes which have yet to be fully counted, Milwaukee had 247,501 votes in this election. That’s a few hundred shy of the 2016 turnout: 247,836, Ben Jordan reports.

MILWAUKEE COUNTY HAD LESS VOTES THAN 2016

decreased population as well. a few things to note he could gets clinton vote lead anyway along with kenosha and a few others tightening up. No way Trump leads Kenosha by 22

[Bootes Void]

https://www.tmj4.com/electionblog

Latest updates:

1:22 p.m. -- Milwaukee ballots just shy of 2016 total

Milwaukee had 78,160 voters at the polls on Election Day. Including absentee votes which have yet to be fully counted, Milwaukee had 247,501 votes in this election. That’s a few hundred shy of the 2016 turnout: 247,836, Ben Jordan reports.

MILWAUKEE COUNTY HAD LESS VOTES THAN 2016

decreased population as well. a few things to note he could gets clinton vote lead anyway along with kenosha and a few others tightening up. No way Trump leads Kenosha by 22

The fact that he is winning kenosha by that much is a sign of back lash against the BLM.

even if you believed that, you have seen similar results compared to 2016 all across Wisconsin

[Bootes Void]

How do you guys feel about Georgia? 50/50?

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If Georgia goes to Biden, then WI gets Biden to 272.

Exactly 270. Biden can win with most combinations of 2 of WI, GA, MI, NC, and PA.

This is assuming AZ goes Biden, right?

Az was already called for Biden

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Yeah it’s time to push left on fiscal issues and right on social issues.

people talked about the backlash of identity politics back in 2016 so

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Without being abused can someone give me a rational case for why that stupid needle still favours Biden in Georgia?

Most vote is out in the Atlanta area, in counties that heavily favor Biden. Even if they just voted at their current rate for him, he would narrowly win the state. If they broke even more heavily for Biden (possible as most are mail-in), he would win it a bit more comfortably. Only if the remaining ballots are unexpectedly not as good for Biden would he lose it.

Then I would says Biden's a favourite to win Georgia as VBM is at or more more dem friendly

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Didn't Fox say earlier that Biden is a favourite in Wisconsin?

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Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

Earlier they were saying he was winning VBM 3 to 1,4 to 1 Dem

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1323896983313018880?s=21

Is this true

He generally wins late ballots 3 to 1 or 4 to 1