2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Reading pages 70-200 on this thread was a wild trip

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reading through the whole thread to relive the experience, this tweet made on Wednesday morning is hilarious

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324007806694023169?s=19

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So if I'm understanding things right, this next Georgia recount will just be a machine recount?

Yup if they request it, I'm not sure if they have to pay for it

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https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1330353938290401282

The Democratic transition into becoming the party of the wealthy is truly astonishing and depressing.

Most Democrats aren't wealthy(obv) and most wealthy aren't democrats

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you guys have to really chill on this stupidity

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Seriously, what's wrong with New York? They haven't updated their numbers for quite a while.

They're incompetent at running an election, that's about all there is to it.

Cuomo should fire the whole BOE and do significant reforms, this is embarassing

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I hope Trump continues to do this so that republican turnout will low in Georgia. This is hilarious.

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if republicans want to delay certification in Michigan then why dont dems do it NC tuesday, tit for tat

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Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

No Biden will win Wisconsin buts it's a bit weird that a larger than expected share of votes are not being considered.

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Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

No Biden will win Wisconsin buts it's a bit weird that a larger than expected share of votes are not being considered.

Does it give credence to those bonkers conspiracy theories?

No the margin is over 20k, this is very minor. Also recounts change the margin by hundreds of votes at most not much else

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according to the exit polls Texas is 23% hispanic while California is 34%, anyone else find that strange?

Both states are about the same % hispanic according to the census

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Biden should hit 81.3 million or so and Trump should be shy of 75 million. Thats my PV projection

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https://twitter.com/JennaEllisEsq/status/1331282127191744512

Do we think she really believes this, or is she just playing the part?

Nah I think she's actually stupid

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NV certified as +2.39% for Biden.

This means NV did swing to Trump by 0.03% ...

Nevada certification date says December 1st. This just says the winner I believe

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It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

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People who lean left really didn't mess around this election. Howie Hawkins only got .25%. That's the worst performance for the Green Party I've ever seen. Howie Hawkins doesn't even seem that bad, he's not a clown like Stein but still, rather impressive how united the left was this election.

That's true but there were some votes for Jorgensen and other third parties. Overall the third party vote is smaller this year because the bases were more supportive of their candidiates compared to 2016

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Does anyone know what's the median age for a Trump voter and a Biden voter? I remember the median age for a democrat was 47 and republican 51

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why so many votes lost in Dane, wth

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2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

No disrespect but why would it be concerning. Also your implying most Democrats are wealthy why is why you might get blowback

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I know Ohio isn't a swing state but I wonder how much of a role did just one putting one drop off box for mail per county worked out. It may explain why turnout didn't go up as much

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My still says 95%, will Biden crack 5 million in NY?

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As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Total number of votes in New York probably hovers around 8.5-8.6 Million. In contrast to Florida which has about 11.4 Million votes. Why such big discrepancy in turnout between the 2 states with approximately the same population size?

one is a swing state  while the other isnt. Also no campaign spends money in NY and lastly the election board in NY are laughably incompetent

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Biden just cracked 5 million votes in NY. First ever candidate to ever do so.

He also has more votes in Florida a state he lost than in New York, a state he will win 20%%+ despite both states having a  similar population

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Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

How did it vote for senate?

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The polls in the northeast weren't bad at all, I wonder what causes that compared to some of the polls in the midwest