2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Bootes Void]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

When does early voting end in Georgia?

[Bootes Void]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1321664346578161665?s=21

If Wasserman or a majority of media pundits have a strong opinion on something that's where you goofed up.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321905674821996544

Texas and Montana are up next. Also NY has reporting only from NYC not the whole state and they are already at 28%

[Bootes Void]

Most things I see look good. But this sounds...bad

https://twitter.com/nwarikoo/status/1321848871492984836

Lower than 2018 seems unlikely. How was it in 2008?

[Bootes Void]

Let's see what Souls to The polls do this Sunday, I wouldn't underestimate them

[Bootes Void]

I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

You should look at the exit polls from 2016 to 2018, it's a way older electorate

[Bootes Void]

I know alot of people were freaking out about Florida yesterday especially Miami Dade but aren't there alot of ancestral republican Hispanics who vote D there now? Kind of like reverse applachia.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744
https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322222134559690753

This looks bad. Why aren't they counting the votes?

[Bootes Void]

Minority Turnout will go up in absolute numbers but as a share of a % we'll have to see. Generally it's hard to predict turnout until you know the election happens especially if alot will vote in-person

[Bootes Void]

[Bootes Void]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

[Bootes Void]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

There is still Soul to the Polls tommorow along with ED. If dem wants to win Florida, they should get up up to 80%-85%RV(preferably 85% and higher)and be even with the rep.To pull of Florida you'll:
1.have dems and reps RV voted to be close or equal
2. Strong support from NPAs along with higher turnout.
3. get Rs to vote For Ds then Ds to vote for Rs(I have no idea how this goes in Florida, but most polls show this)

[Bootes Void]

If Doomers need something to cheer about atleast. Follow the whole thread, interesting read
https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322659513934270465

No idea if this is good news but heres some last minute voters in dem counties
https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322661466747641857

[Bootes Void]

Democrats have 92,331 vote margin in Florida. Big turnout tomorrow could raise it, as most GOP counties are closed.

Theres also election day as well and I don't think it will be as lopsided for republicans as it has been in previous elections

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322944047703576576?s=21

atleast the divides not so stark this election. Its all what left in the mail and ED voting

[Bootes Void]

how much early vote is left there? and are there any states that still have early vote?
we will easily have more than 100 million by tuesday 6pm when the polls first close https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1323013667064025088

[Bootes Void]

High Turnout in Orlando!!
https://twitter.com/paulgcauchi/status/1323049580443930624

[Bootes Void]

Broward Dems should get up to 85% or more turnout by election day

[Bootes Void]

Lots of mail ballots still left out here. Does anyone know in Florida, if you havent sent in your mail ballot, or havent recieved confirmation of it being recieved, could you still switch to vote it in person?

I wanna know about the unreturned mail ballots cause it might be a bit concerning

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323082739898327040

[Bootes Void]

I suspect the majority of New Yorkers used mail in ballots.

No,I think most will vote in person on election day. NY is not a mail in ballot state

[Bootes Void]

In NC, responding to Michael McDonald
- more people have early voted compared to four years ago, even republicans so that's why the gap isn't so large. There is just less pool of voters that can potentially cast their vote compared to where it was four years ago
- dixiecrats have continued to leave the party, so the party registration lead is more "real" as the parties have become more purified ideologically and on how they vote
- independents vote and they may go more heavily  for the Democrats this time compared to four years ago.
- the highest turnout counties in NC are mostly dem strongholds so I assume that would help their case a little more
- there are alot of blacks north Carolinans who will vote on election so the ED won't be as heavily skewed to the Republicans as people think

[Bootes Void]

Biden a winning Nevada by more than 4 points

[Bootes Void]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

What are you talking about ?

I quoted the Quinnipiac poll that showed the vote tomorrow will be overwhelmingly Republican.

It shows that in the end, more Republicans than Democrats will have voted again, just like in 2016.

But it doesn't mean much, because the Indys will decide everything.

There isn't a large pool of voters left as there was back in 2016. Both parties in Florida are at nearly at 70% of the RV turnout

[Bootes Void]

Ralston is being fairly conservative when he says Biden will Nevada by 5 to 6. As for election day, it will be fairly republican but there are democrats voting there as well

[Bootes Void]

160- 170 k dem lead today in Florida today with over 9 million votes casts compared to 100k dem lead with 6 million votes cast back on 2016.

I'd say Dems are still favoured even when you account NPAs going for Biden