MA-SEN Megathread: Senator Markey wins

[Hassan 2022]

Hot take- Sanders not endorsing Markey is a positive. If we make this primary "Bernie vs moderates" we will lose

I think this could be true in the sense that Sanders wasn't that popular in the Boston suburbs in the 2016/2020 primaries, and Markey needs to do well in a good chunk of them to win the primary on September 1. Sanders' endorsement could hurt Markey in the suburbs and potentially drive some Warren-voting 2020 primary Democrats and Markey-supporting moderates in these areas to vote for Kennedy, potentially tipping the election to Kennedy altogether. Then again, I might be reading way too much into this lol.

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/JohnMcCormackMA/status/1296902692716060672

Speaker John McCormack and the OSC with a model here. Markey +1 at the moment, seems pretty reasonable, although they do say that Kennedy is picking up momentum that is too early to quantify now.

That town map looks mostly solid, although I don't really get the random Kennedy towns in Western MA.

I agree, the map looks decent but Leverett, Montague, North Adams, and Great Barrington being overwhelmingly for Kennedy in the model seems off.

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/JohnMcCormackMA/status/1296902692716060672
Speaker John McCormack and the OSC with a model here. Markey +1 at the moment, seems pretty reasonable, although they do say that Kennedy is picking up momentum that is too early to quantify now.

That town map looks mostly solid, although I don't really get the random Kennedy towns in Western MA.

I agree, the map looks decent but Leverett, Montague, North Adams, and Great Barrington being overwhelmingly for Kennedy in the model seems off.

North Adams - similar to Fall River/New Bedford, dying industrial city with lots of noncol whites
Great Barrington - uber rich New Yorkers
Montague and Leverett may be off, but the Connecticut Valley itself does seem reasonable to have a few towns going to Kennedy.

But what would make Great Barrington uniquely pro-Kennedy when nearby Lenox and Stockbridge (which also have many rich New Yorkers) are supposedly much more pro-Markey? And Great Barrington was one of the more pro-Bernie towns in the comparatively wealthy southern portion of Berkshire County in both 2016 and 2020.