New PA Maps In Effect

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

How is everyone able to get Trump/Clinton numbers for these districts? PVI (as presented on DRA) means nothing to me as the Obama numbers are no longer relevant due to realignment.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

How is everyone able to get Trump/Clinton numbers for these districts? PVI (as presented on DRA) means nothing to me as the Obama numbers are no longer relevant due to realignment.

PVI on DRA is a excellent tool if you don't have the time to do calculations, its what cook uses and they tend to be good. The number is 2012+2016/2 so that is a fine substitute. If you lack trust in PVI, then it gets complicated. For the politicos and those drawing the maps, they have access to the counties official tabulations from 2016. Politicos like Wasserman and 538 have access to the data files compiled by RI last year. For me, I hand calculated the results using Atlas's county and town results for PA, plus a news site that broke up the philly vote by wards.

Thanks for the help?

Generally as a rule of thumb, from your data, would a D+1 PVI be a good 2016 Trump/Clinton dividing line in the Philly+Philly suburbs and D+5 in NEPA and the Pittsburgh area? I'm trying my hand in drawing districts.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Lamb (if he gets elected) looks totally screwed, and so does Cartwright. The only improvements for Dems are in Costello/Meehan/and possibly Dent's.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Lamb (if he gets elected) looks totally screwed, and so does Cartwright. The only improvements for Dems are in Costello/Meehan/and possibly Dent's.

This is called lying. ^^^^

Look at the very map you posted. Lamb's home was drawn out of the teal SWPA district, and Doyle is clearly winning the Pittsburgh seat. Rothfuss is obviously going to win the Allegheny + Beaver County Suburbs seat. SEPA looks solid for the Dems, I must admit.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hot takes:
*MontCo looks amazing. It was hard for me to avoid cutting into it when trying to form a compact map.
*Does anybody have any clue if Fitzpatrick's district's PVI changed?
*Smucker must become rather safe now as his district because a SEPA GOP vote sink. Lucky guy.
*The lines look clean throughout, but Barletta's seat looks really ugly and kind of a mishmash, community-of-interest-wise.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder if Holden could win PA-9, it seems like it has quite a bit of his old territory.

It's looking dicey, though. It doesn't have Dauphin , and it has the Trumpiest parts of Luzerne and Carbon added to it.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm shocked that the Allentown-centric district as well as the Bucks-centric one actually voted Clinton. Dent and Fitzpatrick better step up their game.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

With Cartwright, effectively 9-9. Could easily be an 11-7 map in a wave.

So much for Dems having to settle for 6-12 or 7-11 because of MUH GEOGRAPHY, LOL @ King Lear

Which 2 exactly will those wave seats come from? The only one I see is the Erie district if the Obama/Trump crowd comes home.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Any chance of a Critz or Jason Altmire comeback in the new 17th? I assume the addition of more of the Pittsburgh Metro could bode well for them...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What I don't understand is why districts had to be renumbered. Everyone knew 8th meant Bucks, 14th meant Pittsburgh, 15th meant Allentown and so on...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The only dem gerrymander part of this map is PA-10, which is minor at best.

Everything else about the map is just a plainly drawn, fair map.   

The Philly metro was always going to get the 6 seats it's meant to based on population, the only part that was questionable was if Reading was part of those 6 or if Lancastor was.   Either option was fair.

The Pittsburgh area was always going to have a second seat that was going to be somewhat competitive.   That's fair and normal.

The Lehigh Valley and Scranton metro were both getting their tossup seats,  this variation of them is fair.

The only part I can see on the map where the courts slide things in Dems favor is the Harrisburg/York seat, but really the GOP incumbent should be fine there.

York county is practically the same lean as the Maryland panhandle. Dauphin isn't enough to balance out the GOP's natural strength here. Perry is safe.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Right. Just figured it out. Thanks though.

Not that it matters, but why does the new map split the Happy Valley area?

All of Central and and East Central Penn. seems to have been an after-thought. Barletta's seat looks like a mishmash of areas with barely anything in common. Same with Thompson's. I suppose there was no way to draw the both the Harrisburg and Schuykill County area cleanly without being too partisan one way or another.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Isn't PA going to lose a seat in the next reapportionment? That could make this map short-lived.

One of the D-leaning Pittsburgh seats will go. That area is bleeding too much population to support two Dem seats.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

Your own wishful thinking doesn't count as a source.

It's on Daily Kos.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/21/1743438/-Pennsylvania-Republicans-utterly-rejecting-democracy-want-to-impeach-judges-who-ordered-new-maps

This is happening. The GOP has the votes to impeach the judges and the 2 Republican judges can reverse everything. There's nothing any Democrat can do at this point other than rush the implementation.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

King Lear might have been prone to concern trolling nonsense in the past, but the Penn. GOP (including Toomey) have all called for impeachment proceedings. It's happening, and the map will be invalidated. The best thing for the Dems to do now is to take the sore losering and turn it into success in the ballot this fall.