Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Tintrlvr]

So, what do people think might be the endgame here? Ultimately it feels like, if the combatants remain only Russia (plus Belarus) and Ukraine, Russia is likely to win the conventional war eventually, even if it takes them months to occupy the whole country. On the other hand, in the last few days, the European powers (and the US, operating behind the scenes) seem to have committed themselves quite far towards a position where Russia cannot be allowed to win the conventional war. Right now, that doesn't mean direct intervention because the Russians aren't about to win, and clearly there are high hopes on the European side that the Ukrainians can ultimately repel the Russian forces without direct military intervention by the rest of Europe. But what happens if, as is more likely, the Ukrainians eventually start to crumble under the pressure? Given the implicit commitments by the UK, France, etc. to preventing Russia from winning, not to mention the strong pressure from Poland, Romania, the Baltics, etc. and popular sentiment in all of the above countries, it feels like a European intervention would have to happen at some point. I think we all hope it doesn't come to that, but isn't that starting to feel inevitable? Not now, and maybe not until May or so, but at some point?

[Tintrlvr]

The separatists are incompetent losers who had to be saved from total defeat by regular Russian army intervention multiple times. They're currently acting as a pinning force in Donbas to fix Ukrainian forces in place to be hit on the flanks by the Russian thrust from the south and northeast.

Which means advances against them might feel good but are actually strategic mistakes; better to hold what you have.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyway, this seems like a reasonable analysis of the war to me

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1498797741329338371

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

15-20 years is a very bizarrely distant-yet-precise estimate. Like, why not just 5 years? Why not 13 years? Why not 30? We have no idea what else will happen in the world, especially if, like you point out, Putin could be forced out or die within the next year.

Presumably it's coming from someone who decided that because Afghanistan was the last occupation to end somewhere, this occupation will be exactly like that one.

[Tintrlvr]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Yanukovych has said he wants Crimea back in Ukraine. He doesn’t bow low enough to be reinstalled - I think this is clickbait.

Also Yanukovych was a failure and a coward. Surely there is some other Party of Regions apparatchik they'd rather install than reward Yanukovych.

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently Xi Jinping asked Putin to hold off on invading Ukraine until after the Olympics.

A Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior Biden administration officials and a European official.

The report indicates that senior Chinese officials had some level of knowledge about Russia’s war plans or intentions before the invasion started last week. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia met with President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing on Feb. 4 before the opening ceremony of the Olympics. Moscow and Beijing issued a 5,000-word statement at the time declaring that their partnership had “no limits,” denouncing NATO enlargement and asserting that they would establish a new global order with true “democracy.”

The intelligence on the exchange between the Chinese and Russian officials was classified. It was collected by a Western intelligence service and considered credible by officials reviewing it. Senior officials in the United States and allied governments passed it around as they discussed when Mr. Putin might attack Ukraine.

However, different intelligence services had varying interpretations, and it is not clear how widely the information was shared.


One official familiar with the intelligence said the material did not necessarily indicate the conversations about an invasion took place at the level of Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. Other officials briefed on the intelligence declined to give further details. The officials spoke about the report on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence.

When asked by email on Wednesday whether Chinese officials had urged Russian officials to delay an invasion of Ukraine until after the Olympics, Liu Pengyu, the Chinese Embassy spokesman in Washington, said, “These claims are speculation without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China.”

China held the closing ceremony of the Olympics on Feb. 20. The next day, Mr. Putin ordered more Russian troops to enter an insurgent-controlled area of eastern Ukraine after state television broadcast a meeting between him and his national security council and a long speech in which he said Ukraine should be a part of Russia rather than existing as a country. Early on Feb. 24, the Russian military began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including carrying out attacks on Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles, artillery shells and tank units.

It is striking that both of Russia's previous two invasions (of Ukraine in 2014 and of Georgia in 2008) also took place in the immediate vicinity of the Olympics. Something about the Olympics gets Putin hungry for blood.

Also I recall the Chinese being annoyed in 2008 that there was a war going on during the Opening Ceremony, so not hugely shocking that there was discussion of postponing war until after the Olympics this time.

[Tintrlvr]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

[Tintrlvr]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. They'll increase production on their own as prices surge to maintain market share and cash in; political pressure is not relevant. They're not going to cut off their noses to spite Biden, so call their bluff.

[Tintrlvr]

The reality is that no state that Russia sets up in the east of Ukraine will be accepted as a state by the vast majority of UN states (see Crimea and the Donbas). A puppet regime in the west/Kyiv will not be accepted by the majority of UN states if there is a functional Ukrainian government in exile and continued resistance within Ukraine itself.

To be fair, wouldn't time (eventually) heal all wounds and what not? Perhaps what might be the absolute best case scenario for Russia is something like the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where they set up a separatist puppet republic in half of the country with no recognition (except for Turkey itself). And of course, Turkey these days is a relatively standard country (and was even more so before Erdogan went authoritarian)

If you want to keep going with the analogy, the internationally recognized half of Cyprus even went on to eventually join the EU!

Admittedy this is the absolute best case scenario for Russia, which is very unlikely. Also I don't think Eastern Ukranians support Russia anywhere close to the rates that Turkish Cypriots would have supported the Turkish invasion.

Are the Russians interested in resettling eastern Ukraine with Russians? Because it's clear that they would have very little support from the current residents, even those who speak Russian primarily. That contrasts with the Cyprus situation where most Turkish Cypriots supported the invasion.

[Tintrlvr]

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

Referendums in each major Ukrainian province overseen by UN officials is probably something that we should have pushed for long ago. It would have been a win-win situation. Russia would have probably gained some land. The rest of Ukraine would have gotten rid of the most Russian-leaning part of the population and could more firmly move in a western direction.

Polling pre-2014 suggested that only Crimea would have actually voted to secede and join Russia, narrowly, but there would have been a lot of close results (including in the Donbass) that probably would have led to tensions and accusations of fraud and might well have precipitated war anyway.

[Tintrlvr]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. They'll increase production on their own as prices surge to maintain market share and cash in; political pressure is not relevant. They're not going to cut off their noses to spite Biden, so call their bluff.

This feels like a misrepresentation of how petroleum markets work. Biden is asking them to ramp their production up in order to decreases prices, whereas Saudi Arabia & the UAE would rather have prices remain high so that they can benefit from the highest possible margins. If they further increase production, then they'll see diminishing returns with falling prices. So, yeah, Biden is asking them to do something that they genuinely don't seem willing to engage in at this time. Granted, this perspective that's evidently being shared by Saudi Arabia & the UAE right now is rather short-termist insofar as the elasticity preferences of consumers are concerned, but OPEC has never really been known for the long-game.

The Saudis do want lower (than present) prices. Higher prices are a risk for them because they are a low-cost supplier compared to many other suppliers. High prices mean producers in the US, Canada and elsewhere become profitable and start increasing production and market share. What the Saudis care about is profitability while maintaining market share, which means prices that are somewhat high (maybe in the $70 range) but not too high. Prices as they are right now are much higher than the Saudis want.

[Tintrlvr]

Ukraine is in a much better spot for a war of attrition than Russia. The sanctions are devestating Russia and will continue to each month. Meanwhile Ukraine can be resupplied easily, the borders of Poland and Slovakia are still easy supply lines. The Slovakian border hasn't really been hit at all, and Lviv near Poland is the least impacted major city, only a few missle strikes and no urban fighting at all

Are there any major roads into Ukraine from Slovakia? I know there are a few from Hungary through the Carpathians.

Yes - you can see the main road connecting the Slovakian city of Kosice to the Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod here: https://goo.gl/maps/83m8HLqVEtcLceL87 . Of course everything coming through Zakarpattia Oblast from either Slovakia or Hungary has to then cross the Carpathians to get to the rest of Ukraine, which is a key chokepoint that if Russia were able to control the skies, they'd be able to cut off. Therefore it is much easier to import weapons, etc. via Poland or Romania, which have easy connections to the rest of Ukraine.

[Tintrlvr]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

I really have no idea why the White House felt the need to retract anything. What Uncle Joe said was correct.

I wonder if it was choreographed. Have Biden say regime change is needed to scare Putin, but then retract it after that for plausible deniability.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1510695804750766093

The Russian Orthodox Church has always been a tool used by those in power. Say what you will about the Catholic Church, but it represented an actual separate node of power throughout much of Western European Medieval history and thus could serve as a counterbalance against rulers who pushed their luck. The Orthodox Church is a glorified puppet institution.

So i.e., not really a church? Not to be hyperbolic, but a Christian Church that can't be an independent and powerful force in society that is separate from the Government can't really be a church, can it?

I mean, this was the fundamental reason the Catholic and Orthodox churches separated in the first place: The Byzantine (Roman) Emperors thought they should have control over the church, and the Popes thought they should have control over the church. There were other doctrinal reasons of course that made the split more theological nominally, but in practice the real dispute was whether the Emperor (through appointment of religious officials) or the Pope (independently) was the supreme religious power in Christianity. So it should be hardly surprising that Orthodox churches today remain highly reliant on secular power, even though there are no more Roman emperors to claim legitimacy over the church. It's pretty unfair to say that the entire branch of Orthodoxy is invalid, though. It's just a different model of Christianity.

[Tintrlvr]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

Maybe they are getting half that. And they are probably going to lose at least as many men as they already have.

I can't see Russia taking more territory than they already hold, except possibly the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, etc. are impossibilities. And more likely than not the Russians lose Kherson in the next few weeks.

[Tintrlvr]

Speaking of which... new polling numbers from Germany (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, released today) are available.


Opinion on further intensifying sanctions on Russia
Support 77%
Oppose 18%
Don't know 5%

Opinion on stopping oil and gas imports from Russia
Immediately, even if it leads to shortages 28%
Only when the energy supply is secured 54%
No embargo at all 14%

Is the German government doing enough to make the country independent of of Russian oil and gas?
Yes 37%
No 52%
Don't know 11%

Opinion on temporary speed limit on highways to reduce fuel consumption
Support 25%
Support a permanent speed limit 50%
Oppose 24%

Increasing costs and prices are is in many areas a big problem for the wealth in Germany
Yes 73%
No 26%

It is a problem for me personally
Yes 34%
No 65%

The aid Ukraine is receiving from Germany is...
Appropriate 50%
Too little 37%
Too much 7%
Don't know 6%

Can Germany handle the many refugees from Ukraine?
Yes 84%
No 12%

So this isn’t unique to Germany, but 82% ban Russian gas imports, 72% but not if it affects my life in any way makes me want to tear my hair out.

That’s people for you. Fact is most ordinary people don’t have much in the way of spare cash to burn for the sake of Ukraine.

Well, 65% are apparently unaffected personally by rising costs, so *shrug*

[Tintrlvr]

7,000? oof.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=20&t=wS6Dyq33bb...

There could be 7 million young russian bodies decomposing on Ukrainian streets getting eaten by rats and Putin would not care one bit. As long as he's gobbling up territory and resources, and butchering civilians for sport, he's happy.

Well currently he is doing a rather better job of the latter than the former.

Most definitely. Although one could reasonably make the argument that he has conquered an entire country in Belarus without firing a shot, courtesy of his puppet Lukashenko.

Don't give Putin any credit; Lukashenko has been a Russian puppet since he took office in the 90s.

[Tintrlvr]

Is it just me or does Scholz come off as pretty detestable right now?

Every other country seems to be pulling its weight but the Germans have been dragging their feet for weeks. Is he a Putin sympathizer? Afraid of escalation? What is the political calculus here....

Scholz is nothing new in German politics. This is exactly what Merkel would be doing if she were still around, and the last chancellor before Merkel, well...

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

Based. The opposition is even more based.

Honestly surprising out of the CDP, who are really peacenik-y usually.

[Tintrlvr]

If this is what the government is officially admitting, the real number is definitely higher:

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1574121847641149440?s=20&t=DXrti13wPAHC...

Meanwhile:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1574357098049294338?s=20&t=ScdBInl8...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1574315511596335104?s=20&t=ScdBInl8kC_E...

To be fair, didn't Ukraine do the same when the war started? And I think it's still in effect as I have friends with relatives in Ukraine who are currently unable to leave for border-control reasons. Obviously Russia is situated differently than Ukraine in this war, but "no exit" isn't something new.

[Tintrlvr]

As the war started Greek shippers came in to help Russia export oil.  Given that Greek shippers are dependent on the London shipping insurance market this level has gone done since the price cap.  On the other hand, various "unknown" ships seem to be picking up the slack to minimize the decline in Russian oil exports.  I suspect a lot of these "unknown" ships are really Greek ships doing these exports below the radar using non-London shipping insurance.

There's been a big drop in Russia-based ships, too. Isn't it more likely that the "unknowns" are mostly Russians pretending they aren't Russian? Especially since the drop in Greek ships more or less exactly matches the overall volume declines.

[Tintrlvr]

Was “freedom fries” a “cultural revolution?”

For me, yes.  When I heard of it I thought it was one of the stupidest things I have ever heard.  If a political movement is reduced to renaming things and tearing down monuments/statues usually it is a sign that it's tapped out and is running out of meaningful progress that it can make.

And how is that analogous to a political movement that killed millions?

While I agree that this is stupid (just like Freedom Fries was), comparing the Cultural Revolution to renaming a synthetic element which was only discovered in 2003 and which only exists for less than a second when synthesized dangerously and disingenuously trivializes the former.

And comparing it to "Freedom Fries" when the most France did to the U.S. was hurt George W. Bush's fee-fees is trivializing the war in Ukraine (to be clear, this is ridiculing the criticism of this change).

[Tintrlvr]

I think the reference to the Chinese Cultural revolution flew over his head.

Where did I give any indication that I didn't get the reference?

And comparing it to "Freedom Fries" when the most France did to the U.S. was hurt George W. Bush's fee-fees is trivializing the war in Ukraine (to be clear, this is ridiculing the criticism of this change).

... The point is that whining about renaming stuff is itself trivial. Did you actually think I was comparing Russia's behavior today to France's behavior during the Iraq War?



Both of you guys need to work on your reading comprehension.

I was ridiculing him, not you.

[Tintrlvr]

But human waves win wars, don't you know?

Russia has literally never tried any other strategy since the Napoleonic Wars. *shrug*

[Tintrlvr]

Anybody want to move to Russia?

"“We just need to hold a big campaign in Europe and America: “Come to us, we will give you 10 hectares, you will work for us!” People will run out of there. Seven million people, Europeans and Americans, who are now experiencing hell and horror, will come to us with pleasure,” Gusev said."



I'm not sure why he specifically mentioned 7 million people. Interestingly that's very close to the total population of Serbia (excluding Kosovo) and Bosnian-Serb population combined. Coincidence??!?

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1618693031951233026?s=20&t=6llLPgw9...

New policy: Ship Republicans to Russia and make Putin pay for it!

[Tintrlvr]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

Too bad 90% of the info is just posted as links to Twitter so it will only survive as long as Twitter does.