French presidential election, 2022

[Tintrlvr]

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them.

This is very much a type - Arron Banks and Nigel Farage fit that description, as does Donald Trump (the Queens boy who was too gauche for the Manhattan set).

Trump was never a candidate for almost-elite people, though, and Farage similar. Zemmour and Baudet are a pretty distinct brand that way. Vox in Spain is not too dissimilar from Baudet and Zemmour, either, although with more of a religious bent.

It's interesting too that both Baudet and Zemmour emerged in political environments that already had a lower-class far-right populist presence from which they both have tried to draw a sharp distinction.

[Tintrlvr]

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them.

This is very much a type - Arron Banks and Nigel Farage fit that description, as does Donald Trump (the Queens boy who was too gauche for the Manhattan set).

Trump was never a candidate for almost-elite people, though, and Farage similar. Zemmour and Baudet are a pretty distinct brand that way. Vox in Spain is not too dissimilar from Baudet and Zemmour, either, although with more of a religious bent.

It's interesting too that both Baudet and Zemmour emerged in political environments that already had a lower-class far-right populist presence from which they both have tried to draw a sharp distinction.

Yeah, "big brained" is scarcely a label that befits the Trump/Farage crowd.  The closest thing to an Anglosphere equivalent might be if Jordan Peterson ever decided to go into politics.  "Intellectual incels", sort of like...

Whether they're intellectual or not is less relevant to me than the point about their class position. Wealthy almost-but-not-quite elites who feel resentment at the actual elite they failed to break into.

There's a degree to which maybe this is true in the US as well (can't speak to the UK as much); there have recently been some discussions about the "local elites", i.e., the rich landlords and business owners and so forth in secondary and tertiary cities as well as rural areas as being still the backbone of the Republican Party. (These are the "boaters for Trump".) But even if Trump did get much of his support from those people, he wasn't especially associated with them in public image or intentional appeal, and they were still less Republican in the Trump years than when, say, Romney or George W. Bush was the Republican nominee. They mostly voted for Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary; indeed, Ted Cruz is probably the Baudet/Zemmour/Abascal of the U.S. to Trump's Wilders/Le Pen.

[Tintrlvr]

AtlasIntel also has a new poll out showing Macron up 52-48. That may be closer than other pollsters, but they are also the only pollster who has ever shown Le Pen ahead (last week they had 49.5-50.5), so this is still a gain for Macron.

Not to jinx it, but this is roughly how I expected things to play out: Faced with the real possibility of Le Pen winning, French voters who were saying for a long time that they would sit out the second round are coming off the fence for Macron, albeit not in the droves they did last time around.

[Tintrlvr]

There was a guy out on my street in NYC today canvassing French tourists (and expats, I suppose) to vote for Macron. I thought it was kind of funny.

[Tintrlvr]

Why did Le Pen do so well in the Caribbean? almost all Overseas Departments?

Probably the same reason Melenchon did good there in round 1. The overseas communities each face unique issues right now that stem from isolation from the Metropole, issues that aren't getting answered well. This results in a feeling among residents that they are ignored, left behind, or aren't valued. Obviously Melenchon was the preferred candidate who appeared to have the solutions, but if you are going to rage against the system, then you don't go Macron.

I understand more generally that the Overseas Departments, and especially the Caribbean, tends to be strongly anti-incumbent (for the reasons you cited; if Melenchon or Le Pen had won they’d quickly turn against either, too).

[Tintrlvr]

Given the outcome of the presidential election I'd say France and the EU live to fight another day, although with Le Pen's results in mind the sword of Damocles continues to hang above their heads.

It's problematic for a democracy that the executive and the legislative branch are so thoroughly dominated by a single political party on a seemingly permanent basis, while any meaningful opposition consists almost entirely of far-right and left-wing populist parties. That sounds a bit like Russia except that in France the election results are at least not rigged. In any case, France needs better opposition.

Speaking of Russia, I think the importance that Putin has failed to gain any sort of a foothold within Western Europe yesterday can't be stressed enough.

I share some of your toughts about Europe and the democracy. However, are you really tryng to establish a comparison between French and Russian politics? Is LREM equivalent to United Russia,  RN to the LDPR and LFI to the CPRF?

Also, I don't share the parallels that some people draw between far-right and leftwing populisms in Western Europe. In Russia the Putin's party, the LDPR and the communists share a staunch social reactionarism, contrary to progressive causes such as LGBT rights. In Western Europe far-right populists favor policies contrary to the the rights of migrants and other minorities, while leftwing populist parties usually favor inclusive policies. I wouldn't say LFI represents a risk for essential democratic values, despite I don't find Mélenchon pleasant at a personal level and I'm more Europeanist than him

It's clear that Macron doesn't run an authoritarian regime and nor will his presidency will become one. Any French party is probably also less extreme than any of their Russian "equivalents" you mentioned.

And yet, and I think that's the point I tried to make, it's clear that France currently resembles a dominant-party system with EM in charge and only extremist or populist parties challenging this dominance. This arguably leads to a situation where you need to vote for extremists (and one day they could very well end up in power that way) in order to vote against the powers that be.

I don't really think this is true at all. Macron's party is very weak outside of Macron himself, and it's not clear at all that it will survive him leaving office. Far more likely is that Macron himself is what is taking up a lot of the air, and once he's out of the picture the other non-extreme parties will reassert themselves. The 2027 presidential election has the potential to be extremely multi-cornered with the top two perhaps having lower shares than even in 2002.

[Tintrlvr]

What distinguishes the Macron constituency on Reunion from the rest of the island?

It's the wealthier western side of the capital Saint-Denis.