Puerto Rico

[Tintrlvr]

Write in: Green.

Puerto Rico will presumably not elect politicians from the Democratic or Republican party, but rather their very own local parties (PPD and PNP respectively, though in 2020 there was a huge third party wave which reminds me a bit of Spain 2015).

Presidentially PR will vote for Democrats but it will send essencially 4 independents to the House of Representatives and 2 independents to the Senate.

In addition to the point mentioned elsewhere that the PPD and PNP politicians affiliate with national parties (all PPD politicians are Democrats; PNP politicians are split about 50-50), the main political divide between the PPD and the PNP is based on statehood. Once statehood is a fait accompli, I doubt those organizations would survive in the same form; likely the PNP would fall apart as seeking statehood is basically all that holds it together currently, and you'd end up with the Republicans (the right wing of the PNP) and the PPD-Democrats (union of the PPD and the left wing of the PNP) as the two main parties.

Definitely possible for reform/anti-system parties to occasionally have success at the state level, but they would probably not have much influence in national politics (e.g., in Congressional elections) without actually displacing either the PPD-Democrats or the Republicans (likely the latter, since the Republicans would be a permanent minority party in PR anyway).

[Tintrlvr]

Write in: Green.

Puerto Rico will presumably not elect politicians from the Democratic or Republican party, but rather their very own local parties (PPD and PNP respectively, though in 2020 there was a huge third party wave which reminds me a bit of Spain 2015).

Presidentially PR will vote for Democrats but it will send essencially 4 independents to the House of Representatives and 2 independents to the Senate.

In addition to the point mentioned elsewhere that the PPD and PNP politicians affiliate with national parties (all PPD politicians are Democrats; PNP politicians are split about 50-50), the main political divide between the PPD and the PNP is based on statehood. Once statehood is a fait accompli, I doubt those organizations would survive in the same form; likely the PNP would fall apart as seeking statehood is basically all that holds it together currently, and you'd end up with the Republicans (the right wing of the PNP) and the PPD-Democrats (union of the PPD and the left wing of the PNP) as the two main parties.

Definitely possible for reform/anti-system parties to occasionally have success at the state level, but they would probably not have much influence in national politics (e.g., in Congressional elections) without actually displacing either the PPD-Democrats or the Republicans (likely the latter, since the Republicans would be a permanent minority party in PR anyway).

I dunno, I suspect a lot of Puerto Ricans will still want some sort of autonomous status even after statehood, which is why I'm a lot more lukewarm/cautious about it than other red avatars. Public opinion seems to be about 50-50 (ok, 52-48) on it, and opponents of statehood feel that way for a reason.

Puerto Rico is the kind of situation which really calls for a Greenland/Aland Islands type solution with significant local autonomy while still being tied to the US state. Something along the lines of US citizenship and federal representation but a lot more power in their finances, laws, etc. Hard to see how that would work given the present derangement of the GOP but that seems the most logical option.

The thing is, once statehood happens, there's no legal pathway to anything else barring a federal Constitutional amendment, which will never happen. All of this is assuming statehood; I agree short of statehood many Puerto Ricans would prefer something other than statehood.