2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

 Can they just ban him already?

[GP270watch]

"Fun" fact:

Out of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, 7 of them trended R (as of the vote counts a 9:57 ET on November 4th), while 23 of them trended D.

Of the 20 states Clinton won in 2016, 17 of them trended D and three trended R.

In other words, Dems are gaining everywhere, but much more so in states that are already safe. This is resulting in a close electoral college matchup despite improving their margin in 40 states.

Yayyy even more Democratic voter inefficiency, this is epic!

Yeah, it mirrors 2018 gains some what.

[GP270watch]

Georgia margin now down to 12k.

It's over, if you're reading with 0.0001% glimpse of concern or hope. It's over. Donald Trump lost lol

WHERE

Yeah I need a link bro.

[GP270watch]

Is Georgia looking good or bad?

Looking like a squeaker Biden might get into recount territory win or lose.

Can a recount be requested?

Yes, the recount can be requested if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5%. The recount must be requested within two business days after county certification. Election officials may also request recounts under certain circumstances explained below. There are no set deadlines for completion.

[GP270watch]

Should I be encouraged or discouraged by these Georgia numbers?

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324208012265967617?s=20

 This seems encouraging, local reporter on the ground.

[GP270watch]

 This is the most annoying election ever.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1324382660232388608

(A) I didn't know the creator of Family Guy was so into electoral politics.

(B) Have these been counted already?

 This tweet is awful because it's so vague. What is the 150k? Is it nationwide?

 Throw in a city where it's close Atlanta but don't specify how much, so vague.

 The judge has really screwed up by not holding DeJoy in contempt of court 2 weeks ago and holding him in jail until the election was over.

[GP270watch]

 No matter what happens in Georgia it won't be called for a while because we're in recount territory. I find it hard to imagine whoever is losing won't pay for a recount since it's not automatically done by the state. I think in the past the trailing candidate has usually payed for a recount.

[GP270watch]

CNN: Trump/team is starting to believe they are "running out of options", Trump frantically calling GOP surrogates, worry about Georgia growing. A 2024 campaign is already being discussed.

These people are insane.  Trump is more likely to be in jail in 2024 than running for President.

I feel like Trump is going to make a ton of noise about running in 2024 but not actually run.

 He's broke, running for President has become a money making venture. He gets to raise cash, have adoring crowds, and hog the spotlight. If he does lose this election, his 2024 campaign is going to start the very next day. A lame duck president holding huge politcal rallies, let's see if he still gets the same energy.

[GP270watch]

I also have now idea if the PA DOS is correct in how many mail ballots have been returned. In Philly, they say 434K were requested but only 357k returned. I highly doubt ~75K were not returned.

That's common. A large number of VBM ballots are never returned.

[GP270watch]

 The $1200 stimulus check that the government sent and that low information voters credit Trump for has more to do with working class rural Latinos swinging to Trump. I know people who are not citizens but have working status and taxpayer ID who received the $1200 stimulus. And since the vast majority of immigrants work despite what you hear, in many households there were 2-4 members of the family who got stimulus funds(plus kids). While these people can't vote there was buzz about stimulus checks with friends and family who could.

 The Florida Cuban shift was pure indoctrination and credit the Florida GOP for engaging these folks. In South Florida the Cubans have all kinds of social organizations that help arriving Cubans. They bring them up to speed with bureaucracy, do job placement, and this is one of the places to start targeting them politically for when they can vote.

 Koch brothers were doing the same thing with Puerto Ricans in Central Florida with classes exposing them to libertarian and fiscal conservatism, this is even more efficient because Puerto Ricans can vote straight away. Florida Republicans like Scott were also smart to fast track Puerto Ricans into state bureaucracy like granting them in-state tuition to Florida Colleges and Universities.
  

[GP270watch]

So Far MA was a Bidenslide even in the rural parts. Not sure how late ballots trend. However most actual Urban areas in MA swung towards Trump, we could see a closer PV than expected if this holds true.



https://twitter.com/richparr79/status/1324362497164496899

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1324364398975176705

This could also mean there was depolarization lol.

Those places have large Hispanic populations.

I'm less sure what's going on with those random R-swinging towns in the Berkshires, but they're very WWC.

Overall I'm happy that the Massachusetts realignment of 2016 did not continue.

 Dominicans who are the best Latino voters for The Democratic Party. They vote for Democrats 75%-80%

[GP270watch]

NBC News predicting Perdue-Ossoff US Senate race is headed to a runoff election.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324508294321446914

[GP270watch]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am, but that's an unsafe call

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

Georgia is going to be so close that the networks will not call it even if/when Biden takes the lead.

 Georgia is going to be recount litigation hell for a while.  Trump can still win because he has outs. He has more vote outstanding where he's trailing but gaining AZ,NV and less votes outstanding where he's up and his lead is getting cut into GA, PA. I think Biden needs PA to slam the door shut.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324530638381150208


 Don't know credible or accurate this guy is but he's characterizing the drop of votes before they release and what to expect.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/AlecMcQuade/status/1324539710065254400

Then 4,800 coming out of Gwinnett County.

[GP270watch]

A bunch of votes from Monroe County, PA came in - Joe Biden now leads there.

 Trump PA lead down to 42,154.

[GP270watch]

Will Trump bother to pay for a recount in GA after he loses anyway with PA?

I mean Obama could have triggered a recount in MO in 2008, didn’t bother because he won anyway. I can see Trump doing it just to be a sore loser, but I can also see him just calling it “rigged anyway” and not bothering.

 Yes, because he'll be doing so with other people's money.

[GP270watch]

Is this going to be finished tonight? I can't see how Biden isn't winning PA..

I mean, if they report fast enough it will be. Comes down to that at this point.

MSNBC says Biden is projected to take lead in the early morning around 4-5 AM.

[GP270watch]

 If Biden can get to 0.6% there is no recount outside of lawsuits trying to force one vs. having a legal right under Georgia law to request one.

[GP270watch]

-snip-

That's not gonna happen lmao. Most Democrats got the only thing they wanted. They got rid of the cheeto in the White House. No one will give a sh*t.

1. Man is openly advocating for an authoritarian coup and you’re still acting like it’s some performative wokeness or some s—t to primarily want him out of the White House rather than quite possibly the single most urgent thing in the world.

2. I bet you as much money as will be spent on GA senate seats in the coming weeks that Dems will take it VERY seriously.

I'm actually gonna agree with Alben here. I'm confident we're gonna put up a hell of a fight for the runoffs, and spending is gonna be off the charts. Even without Trump on the ballot, both Ossoff and Warnock are well liked and Loeffler is despised.

I also think that Trump is going to do plenty if ridiculously insane things between now and January to hurt the GOP in those races.

 Since Trump loves the spotlight he'll do a bunch of rallies where he'll bring the senate candidates on for 5 minutes before making it all about himself. Especially he will do rallies for Kelly Loeffler, she is very Trumpy.

[GP270watch]

26,319 shrinking lead for Trump in PA

 from 13k ballots in Philly, Biden netted around 10k.

57K ballot left in Philly per MSNBC.

[GP270watch]

 If Alex Jones ran for GOP Presidential primary what percentage of the vote would he get?

[GP270watch]

Georgia down to like 1200 votes now.

What came in?