COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GP270watch]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

I totally agree with that!

That’s why I don’t understand why more people who were advocating lockdowns aren’t looking at the current data and essentially declaring victory.
The purpose of the lockdowns was not to reduce the number of infections in the long term.  The purpose was to delay the inevitable surge in infections until we had better testing and treatment.

We now have much better testing and treatment, and this is going to allow Florida and Texas the weather their case spikes much better than New York (or Europe) did.   No major city was ever going to escape the virus completely unscathed.  So when it does hit with full force, it’s much better to hit a younger population who are able to detect infection early and have a wide range of medical options available if they do get sick.

 It's not victory because we never followed the protocol seriously, the Federal governemnt didn't do everything they could logistically and America is doing worse than most of the world. In my state of Florida deaths are trending up. Most of the rest of the world is in very sharp decline. The medical professionals know how to treat the illness better but it's still deadly.

[GP270watch]

Deaths are trending up in Florida, and I would expect that to continue.  I think that’s inevitable when you have a huge surge of infections. 

But we still need to be aware of the scale.  Florida is averaging 45 deaths/day right now.  When New York had a similar number of cases, they were averaging 900 deaths/day. 

I am very confident that we are never going to see that in FL.  The reason most of Europe is in steep decline is that they already had their surge.  And they had it at a time in which we were all much less prepared to address it, leading to a much higher death toll.

 What about Asia? The world is more than Italy and Spain.

 Also look at what Greece has managed to do.

In Greece, COVID-19 Numbers Are Very Low. Neurologists Explain Why.

[GP270watch]

European Workers Draw Paychecks. American Workers Scrounge for Food.

In the pandemic, the United States has relied on expanded unemployment benefits, while European governments have subsidized wages, avoiding a surge in joblessness.

The pandemic has ravaged Europeans and Americans alike, but the economic pain has played out in starkly different fashion.

The United States has relied on a significant expansion of unemployment insurance, cushioning the blow for tens of millions of people who have lost their jobs, with the assumption that they will be swiftly rehired once normality returns.

European countries — among them Denmark, Ireland, Britain, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Austria — have prevented joblessness by effectively nationalizing payrolls, heavily subsidizing wages and enabling paychecks to continue uninterrupted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-us-jobless-coronavirus.html

 Great posts but it's lost on most of this crowd.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

Weird. If only there was something we could put over our mouths & nose that'd help stop the transmission of an airborne virus. Anybody got any ideas?

MEANWHILE

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1279859772456611840

[GP270watch]

 Anytime black people want freedom it's a "marxist plot". Those Southern racists and many in the government said the same thing about Dr. King. Such a tired old racist talking point.

[GP270watch]

 Or we could have just worn masks and mobilized the full resources of the Federal government to get enough masks and PPE for health-workers and then masks for people, including free masks. Also while doing contact tracing and non essential lockdowns.

 A race to herd immunity strategy was modeled to be a disaster by multiple organizations and agencies. You can't pursue a strategy like that when the best mathematicians, scientists, and medical people say it's a stupid way to go. Also the race to herd immunity hinging on infected people to stay home for two weeks wouldn't work. What would make them stay home? Who would care for them if they were sick but not requiring hospitalization?

 It seems the countries who have had the most success had a clear government response with no equivocation about how serious this was. Encouraged their citizen or required masks, sometimes provided or subsidized. They also did testing followed by proactive contact tracing to see where the disease was spreading and shape policy accordingly.

[GP270watch]

Or we could just worn masks and mobilized the full resources of the Federal government to get enough masks and PPE for health-workers and then masks for people, including free masks. Also while doing contact tracing and non essential lockdowns.

 A race to herd immunity strategy was modeled to be a disaster by multiple organizations and agencies. You can't pursue a strategy like that when the best mathematicians, scientists, and medical people say it's a stupid way to go. Also the race to her immunity hinging on infected people to stay home for two weeks wouldn't work. What would make them stay home? Who would care for them if they were sick but not requiring hospitalization?

 It seems the countries who have had the most success had a clear government response with no equivocation about how serious this was. Encouraged their citizen or required masks, sometimes provided or subsidized. They also did testing followed by proactive contact tracing to see where the disease was spreading and shape policy accordingly.

As far as I know, no one was modeling a voluntary infection strategy accompanied by a hard lockdown.  All the discussion of herd immmunity was essentially just assuming that everyone would gradually get infected at random.  This is pretty much what happened in Sweden, and why their death toll was so high.  They wanted herd immunity, but they never intentionally directed infections toward the least vulnerable,; they just sort of let the infection spread wherever.

  Come on bro be serious. You really believe you came up with some brilliant strategy that all of the world's experts on pandemics somehow couldn't conceive of and model?

 

[GP270watch]

Or we could just worn masks and mobilized the full resources of the Federal government to get enough masks and PPE for health-workers and then masks for people, including free masks. Also while doing contact tracing and non essential lockdowns.

 A race to herd immunity strategy was modeled to be a disaster by multiple organizations and agencies. You can't pursue a strategy like that when the best mathematicians, scientists, and medical people say it's a stupid way to go. Also the race to her immunity hinging on infected people to stay home for two weeks wouldn't work. What would make them stay home? Who would care for them if they were sick but not requiring hospitalization?

 It seems the countries who have had the most success had a clear government response with no equivocation about how serious this was. Encouraged their citizen or required masks, sometimes provided or subsidized. They also did testing followed by proactive contact tracing to see where the disease was spreading and shape policy accordingly.

As far as I know, no one was modeling a voluntary infection strategy accompanied by a hard lockdown.  All the discussion of herd immmunity was essentially just assuming that everyone would gradually get infected at random.  This is pretty much what happened in Sweden, and why their death toll was so high.  They wanted herd immunity, but they never intentionally directed infections toward the least vulnerable,; they just sort of let the infection spread wherever.

  Come on bro be serious. You really believe you came up with some brilliant strategy that all of the world's experts on pandemics somehow couldn't conceive of and model?

I’m sure many people have thought of this before, but probably didn’t spend a lot of effort trying to model it because they believed it was politically unrealistic and would not be taken seriously.  If you know of a model for this, please post a link, I’d love to see it.

Edit: I also think a lot of people when the outbreak first started really underestimated the seriousness of the situation, and how impossible it was going to be to control using more moderate strategy.  In particular I think people underestimated the contagiousness of the virus and what asymptomatic spread really implied, and believed that temporary lockdowns by themselves would be effective.  So an extreme-sounding proposal like this may have sounded unnecessary to even consider at that point.

  Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/propublica/status/1280947020572786689

The same thing happened in NYC months ago.

[GP270watch]

Masks are this generation’s TSA.

#SecurityTheater

Masks seem to work where they've been implemented. Wearing a mask is really no big deal and if anything is anti-surveillance state. Nobody at all liked the TSA protocols,, most people voluntarily wear masks, it's only the Deplorables who think it's the death of liberty or something.

[GP270watch]

Masks seem to work where they've been implemented. Wearing a mask is really no big deal and if anything is anti-surveillance state. Nobody at all liked the TSA protocols,, most people voluntarily wear masks, it's only the Deplorables who think it's the death of liberty or something.

What if somebody has a legitimate medical reason? I have a bandana that doubles as a mask, and whenever I try to use it in stores where it's required, I get that feeling of fear right in my heart. I have heart disease and had a possible heart attack on April 28.

Get a real mask and talk to your doctor to see if it's advisable. Getting Covid-19 with a heart condition is a higher risk factor for bad things happening to you.

[GP270watch]

Or we could just worn masks and mobilized the full resources of the Federal government to get enough masks and PPE for health-workers and then masks for people, including free masks. Also while doing contact tracing and non essential lockdowns.

 A race to herd immunity strategy was modeled to be a disaster by multiple organizations and agencies. You can't pursue a strategy like that when the best mathematicians, scientists, and medical people say it's a stupid way to go. Also the race to her immunity hinging on infected people to stay home for two weeks wouldn't work. What would make them stay home? Who would care for them if they were sick but not requiring hospitalization?

 It seems the countries who have had the most success had a clear government response with no equivocation about how serious this was. Encouraged their citizen or required masks, sometimes provided or subsidized. They also did testing followed by proactive contact tracing to see where the disease was spreading and shape policy accordingly.

As far as I know, no one was modeling a voluntary infection strategy accompanied by a hard lockdown.  All the discussion of herd immmunity was essentially just assuming that everyone would gradually get infected at random.  This is pretty much what happened in Sweden, and why their death toll was so high.  They wanted herd immunity, but they never intentionally directed infections toward the least vulnerable,; they just sort of let the infection spread wherever.

  Come on bro be serious. You really believe you came up with some brilliant strategy that all of the world's experts on pandemics somehow couldn't conceive of and model?

I’m sure many people have thought of this before, but probably didn’t spend a lot of effort trying to model it because they believed it was politically unrealistic and would not be taken seriously.  If you know of a model for this, please post a link, I’d love to see it.

Edit: I also think a lot of people when the outbreak first started really underestimated the seriousness of the situation, and how impossible it was going to be to control using more moderate strategy.  In particular I think people underestimated the contagiousness of the virus and what asymptomatic spread really implied, and believed that temporary lockdowns by themselves would be effective.  So an extreme-sounding proposal like this may have sounded unnecessary to even consider at that point.

  Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception

The article explicitly assumes the “current” (for when it was written) death rate of 2000 deaths/day would continue under a herd immunity strategy.  It makes no attempt to model a death rate among the young and healthy.  The whole purpose of deliberate infection and quarantine is to dramatically reduce the death rate by only infecting those least likely to die, rather than just infecting people unknowlingly and randomly.

What on earth are you talking about? You can not assign Covid-19 to only a portion of the population. We don't know the exact mortality rate but it's pretty deadly to older folks and those with health vulnerabilities. People who are perfectly healthy also say that it's a terrible illness and many feel after effects post viral even after being clear. It's completely nonsensical to get Covid-19 if you don't have too, stop speculating nonsense and arguing for impossible proposals when we can't even get people to follow simple stuff.

[GP270watch]

You -can- “assign” the virus to a portion of the population by voluntary deliberate infection coupled with quartines and a strict lockdown of those in the population who are not yet immune.  

 You can't and nobody can stop talking nonsense.

[GP270watch]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

 He's making baseless assumptions with data he doesn't even understand.

And just a side note but children are less likely to die in car accidents if they wear seatbelts, or use car-seats, their parents or other parties don't speed, or drive distracted, or drive intoxicated. You know like follow common sense safety and preventative measures.

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1281237294851203076?s=21

8,935 new cases reported from today's report. 

  The stores are mandating or strongly suggesting masks but I personally know people who are going to parties, gatherings, and other crowded activities acting like the worst is over.

  The US response has been so bad. As much as we see glaring mistakes on the state level this isn't something any state governor can fight alone. The Federal response has been incompetent and inadequate.

 

[GP270watch]

Not everyone who is 65 or older is a step away from death. Not everyone who has a chronic illness that makes coronavirus much worse is close to dying. It is not acceptable to claim that the 135k deaths so far in the US would have happened anyway.

Thank you.  I particularly detest the argument about this virus culling only the older population (which is of course false, as well as morally reprehensible).  I'm in my mid-sixties, healthy, fit, productively working at a high-skill job, and I daresay a net positive contribution to society.  According to actuarial tables my life expectancy is close to 20 years, and my family tends to be long-lived so it may be longer.  Anybody who thinks it's not worth some inconvenience on their part to protect all the people like me because "we're going to die soon anyway" can just shove it.

It's such a stupid argument when you look at the sheer number of healthcare workers who have died because of Covid-19 exposure, who were otherwise healthy.

[GP270watch]

2020 only half over.

What a year.

[GP270watch]

Daily Florida numbers just dropped:

10,360 new cases today's report. 10,274 residents and 86 non-residents.

19.3% positive from 53,818 tests.

95 deaths. 421 Hospitalizations.

Median age 40.

Is that median age for deaths or new cases?

 

[GP270watch]

 It's completely inexcusable that Doctors and Nurses are dealing with PPE shortages this far into the pandemic.

 

[GP270watch]

This is a cult, not even bots are this stupid.

https://twitter.com/Fritschner/status/1282091215463354373

[GP270watch]

Snip!

I dunno. I wish my stepdad had lived to see Trump wear a mask--his response would help me better gauge these folks. But without that information, I feel like such immediate turnaround indicates a bot. That said, if they're not bots, it demonstrates how flipping important it is for Trump to wear a mask as an example.

Sorry about your stepdad.

The tweet I posted was a joke because The Republican party is such a joke right now . What used to be The Onion type headline parodies are now real news-stories under Trump. I can't distinguish from bots and real Republicans on Twitter because they're equally posting incoherent and nonsensical gibberish.

[GP270watch]

I looked into Vietnam and most outside observers are saying even if the deaths are not zero that it's extremely low. They took immediate actions having public health campaigns about sanitation and hand washing. Vietnam adopted mask wearing, contact tracing, and enforced quarantine periods.

Vietnam enacted measures other countries would take months to move on, bringing in travel restrictions, closely monitoring and eventually closing the border with China and increasing health checks at borders and other vulnerable places.

Schools were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January and remained closed until mid-May. A vast and labour intensive contact tracing operation got under way.

Coronavirus: How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success

[GP270watch]

 Comparing different states in different geographic locations, with different demographics, and different population density is silly when we don't really know everything about Covid-19. I think what people are reacting to more than anything is that certain Republican governors have downplayed Covid-19 in callous and tonedeaf ways. This is why other Republican governors have got praise and Democrats in states with some terrible outbreaks also get the benefit of the doubt.

[GP270watch]

Ppl understand the process imo, i just don't think that they care unless they are directly affected

Add an infantile inability to perceive object permanence to that.

 Also social media is making many believe literally anything else besides this being a pandemic. It's very disturbing the number of Americans who will believe baseless conspiracy theories almost immediately to not deal with reality.

[GP270watch]

The Health officials are saying long term lockdowns are not good, so that's a false argument and narrative. But people are not following their basic recommendations, they're still going to parties and large gatherings.

 Also sad to see that The President of The United States tweeting baseless conspiracy theories from a gameshow host barely gets a mention. Pretty crazy how far America has fallen in the Trump era.