COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GP270watch]

You -can- “assign” the virus to a portion of the population by voluntary deliberate infection coupled with quartines and a strict lockdown of those in the population who are not yet immune.  

 You can't and nobody can stop talking nonsense.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1280807299561525253

I really, really wish calling the Republicans a child-sacrificing death cult was hyperbole.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1280807299561525253

I really, really wish calling the Republicans a child-sacrificing death cult was hyperbole.

It’s so sad to me that this has become so partisan.  Neither side is actually willing to acknowledge the data and the science when it doesn’t support what they feel like is their party’s position.

Coronavirus is of very, very little risk to young people.  It is significantly less fatal than chicken pox among children, and people have been deliberately infecting their children with chicken pox for generations.  A thousand times more people over 85 have died of covid in the US than children.  Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

You can argue against reopening schools on the basis of other, more vulnerable people who might be infected as a result.  But no one is deliberately sacrificing children.

[emailking]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1281011207198171137

It'll be down to close to zero in no time. /s

[GP270watch]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

 He's making baseless assumptions with data he doesn't even understand.

And just a side note but children are less likely to die in car accidents if they wear seatbelts, or use car-seats, their parents or other parties don't speed, or drive distracted, or drive intoxicated. You know like follow common sense safety and preventative measures.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

Eh, this I'm pretty ambivalent about.  I definitely think all deliberate infections should be voluntary.  And so I'm uneasy about giving parents the right to decide this for a child.  In general, I think parents have way too many rights over thing that determine their children's future.

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

 He's making baseless assumptions with data he doesn't even understand.

And just a side note but children are less likely to die in car accidents if they wear seatbelts, or use car-seats, their parents or other parties don't speed, or drive distracted, or drive intoxicated. You know like follow common sense safety and preventative measures.

You're comparing wearing a seat belt with canceling a child's education?

[Koharu]

For the folks still talking about masks...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm as against Trump as anyone else is, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. Our schools and colleges have to come back pretty much like normal. Have to.

I've known quite a few teachers who say they can't do their jobs as long as distance learning and extreme social distancing remain in force.

Also, a few schools in Montana did come back on May 7, and were somewhat close to normal. They didn't have any problems.

50 COVID-19 Cases Discovered At Billings Memory Care Facility

Montana health officials announced 80 new cases of the COVID-19 illness July 7, including over 50 cases in Yellowstone County, the majority of which are connected to an assisted living facility in Billings. The new cases break the state’s record for single day total cases reported.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I'm as against Trump as anyone else is, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. Our schools and colleges have to come back pretty much like normal. Have to.

I've known quite a few teachers who say they can't do their jobs as long as distance learning and extreme social distancing remain in force.

That works if you have somehow contained the virus and reduced new cases to an overseeable number.
But the problem of the US has never been that the lockdown rules have been in place for too long, the problem of the US has always been that the lockdown rules have been lifted too early.

[parochial boy]

It is perplexing to me that the UK still has almost the number of deaths per capita that the US does, while having about 20x fewer cases per capita, despite doing 50% more per capita tests. 

It’s been like that for several weeks.  They have a CFR of 17%!  How is that possible?

It’s because the UK’s testing statistics are lies. They have been doing this thing where they post tests to people to swab themselves and send the results back. Except that two thirds of those tests never actually come back, the ones that do come back are hugely inaccurate as people can’t really swab themselves properly, but despite this the UK has been claiming that they’ve « done » a test from the moment they post it out to the patient.

It’s such a blatant fiction that they’ve had to stop reporting test numbers.

In other words, no matter how badly Trump is managing things, Boris Johnson is hot on his heels for incompetence

[BobbieMac]

It is perplexing to me that the UK still has almost the number of deaths per capita that the US does, while having about 20x fewer cases per capita, despite doing 50% more per capita tests. 

It’s been like that for several weeks.  They have a CFR of 17%!  How is that possible?

It’s because the UK’s testing statistics are lies. They have been doing this thing where they post tests to people to swab themselves and send the results back. Except that two thirds of those tests never actually come back, the ones that do come back are hugely inaccurate as people can’t really swab themselves properly, but despite this the UK has been claiming that they’ve « done » a test from the moment they post it out to the patient.

It’s such a blatant fiction that they’ve had to stop reporting test numbers.

In other words, no matter how badly Trump is managing things, Boris Johnson is hot on his heels for incompetence

The Tories have been criminally negligent in their response to the crisis. But like in the US, 42% of the population are too thick to notice.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

Eh, this I'm pretty ambivalent about.  I definitely think all deliberate infections should be voluntary.  And so I'm uneasy about giving parents the right to decide this for a child.  In general, I think parents have way too many rights over thing that determine their children's future.

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

 He's making baseless assumptions with data he doesn't even understand.

And just a side note but children are less likely to die in car accidents if they wear seatbelts, or use car-seats, their parents or other parties don't speed, or drive distracted, or drive intoxicated. You know like follow common sense safety and preventative measures.

You're comparing wearing a seat belt with canceling a child's education?

Worth noting that moving classes online isn't "cancelling a child's education". 

Sure, it's not ideal and there are plenty of kiddos out there (even big kiddos like myself) who learn much better in-person as opposed to online, but it's not as though schools are outright cancelling all classes -- at least to my knowledge. 

[palandio]

[...]
Look at the top 8 death rates in the world; they are all in Europe.  They’ve controlled the virus just like NYC did; by waiting until enough people had already been infected that an immunity barrier had been established in the places with the worst outbreaks.
[...]

While I agree with a lot of what you are saying, I don't think that this is right. The relatively strict lockdown managed to drastically reduce infections everywhere (edit: in Europe). E.g. in Italy estimated cumulative infection rates vary widely between >50% (parts of Bergamo province), 10% (areas in Northern Italy like Liguria, Piemonte, Emilia) and <2% (vast regions in the center and south). If like you said it was just about immunity barriers, then ok, the result in Bergamo province makes sense. The result in the South does not make sense because it is unrealistic that in early/mid March the Southern Italian health authorities were able to keep infections and deaths (incl. overmortality) down if really challenged. And the results in the mid-range regions of Northern Italy make the least sense.

Hence, a strict lockdown does have a clear effect on the propagation of the virus in the general population. The first problem is that its effect is much weaker in sub-populations that cannot socially distance. The second problem is that you cannot keep the lockdown in place for long because of its destructive side effects. And what happens after? How can you keep the fragile balance in place? As you rightfully point out, immunity barriers do have a significant effect in a post-lockdown phase.

Finally it might be interesting to look at Sweden where despite what many are saying the virus reproduction rate dropped to 1 or below quite early. What happened? A large part of the population followed mild forms of social distancing. This was not enough to stop the spreading of the virus immediately, but to drastically lower the threshold at which immunity effects come into play. That is why Sweden's overmortality has still not reached the level of the UK, Spain, New York, Italy, Belgium or the Netherlands. Detected infections have gone up recently, but this is due to a changed testing strategy.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1280807299561525253

I really, really wish calling the Republicans a child-sacrificing death cult was hyperbole.

It’s so sad to me that this has become so partisan.  Neither side is actually willing to acknowledge the data and the science when it doesn’t support what they feel like is their party’s position.

Coronavirus is of very, very little risk to young people.  It is significantly less fatal than chicken pox among children, and people have been deliberately infecting their children with chicken pox for generations.  A thousand times more people over 85 have died of covid in the US than children.  Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

We have a vaccine for chicken pox.

COVID-19 absolutely affects children, pediatricians warn

As pediatricians at Rutgers Health and the Bristol Myers Squibb Children’s Hospital, we want to remind families that it is a myth that children are safe from COVID-19, which is a global tragedy of historic magnitude. They are not.

COVID-19 (coronavirus) in babies and children

Although rare, children under age 1 (infants) are at higher risk of severe illness with COVID-19. This is likely due to their immature immune systems and smaller airways, which make them more likely to develop breathing issues with respiratory virus infections.

A study of more than 2,100 children with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 in China between late December and early February showed that just under 11% of infants had severe or critical illness. In comparison, rates of severe or critical illness were about 7% for children ages 1 to 5, 4% for those 6 to 10, 4% for those 11 to 15 and 3% for those 16 and older.

And that's before taking into account what we're starting to learn about the long-term impacts of COVID-19, including brain damage. and other long-term effects.

[KaiserDave]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

Eh, this I'm pretty ambivalent about.  I definitely think all deliberate infections should be voluntary.  And so I'm uneasy about giving parents the right to decide this for a child.  In general, I think parents have way too many rights over thing that determine their children's future.

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

 He's making baseless assumptions with data he doesn't even understand.

And just a side note but children are less likely to die in car accidents if they wear seatbelts, or use car-seats, their parents or other parties don't speed, or drive distracted, or drive intoxicated. You know like follow common sense safety and preventative measures.

You're comparing wearing a seat belt with canceling a child's education?

Worth noting that moving classes online isn't "cancelling a child's education". 

Sure, it's not ideal and there are plenty of kiddos out there (even big kiddos like myself) who learn much better in-person as opposed to online, but it's not as though schools are outright cancelling all classes -- at least to my knowledge. 

For elementary schoolers and for many middle schoolers, as well as for those many without internet remote learning is essentially canceling class

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1281206354334625793

This is the 0.01 th time he's told us this apparently.

Think maybe he just meant 100th lol.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

Eh, this I'm pretty ambivalent about.  I definitely think all deliberate infections should be voluntary.  And so I'm uneasy about giving parents the right to decide this for a child.  In general, I think parents have way too many rights over thing that determine their children's future.

Children are much more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than from covid.

Even if you deliberately infect them?

 He's making baseless assumptions with data he doesn't even understand.

And just a side note but children are less likely to die in car accidents if they wear seatbelts, or use car-seats, their parents or other parties don't speed, or drive distracted, or drive intoxicated. You know like follow common sense safety and preventative measures.

You're comparing wearing a seat belt with canceling a child's education?

Worth noting that moving classes online isn't "cancelling a child's education". 

Sure, it's not ideal and there are plenty of kiddos out there (even big kiddos like myself) who learn much better in-person as opposed to online, but it's not as though schools are outright cancelling all classes -- at least to my knowledge. 

For elementary schoolers and for many middle schoolers, as well as for those many without internet remote learning is essentially canceling class

This is true -- it depends on the capacity for those resources. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1281237294851203076?s=21

8,935 new cases reported from today's report. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

32 deaths today in Virginia, which is the highest total in six weeks.

I’ve always thought that the surges in places like Texas, Florida, and California were pretty much inevitable given the lack of infections there earlier on.

But in the past few days, it has become clear that even most states that already saw big surges and death totals have been unable to shake the virus regardless of what they did to combat it.  This is totally disheartening.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

32 deaths today in Virginia, which is the highest total in six weeks.

I’ve always thought that the surges in places like Texas, Florida, and California were pretty much inevitable given the lack of infections there earlier one.

But in the past few days, it has become clear that even most states that already saw big surges and death totals have been unable to shake the virus regardless of what they did to combat it.  This is totally disheartening.

I believe your northeast neighbor (Delaware) is also seeing a rise in cases, something that I definitely didn't expect. 

[Calthrina950]

32 deaths today in Virginia, which is the highest total in six weeks.

I’ve always thought that the surges in places like Texas, Florida, and California were pretty much inevitable given the lack of infections there earlier on.

But in the past few days, it has become clear that even most states that already saw big surges and death totals have been unable to shake the virus regardless of what they did to combat it.  This is totally disheartening.

What this means is that the virus isn't going away, and will probably become endemic at this point. That means that it will recur every year, and we will all have to get our "coronavirus" shots, just like we get our "flu" shots, on an annual basis.

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1281237294851203076?s=21

8,935 new cases reported from today's report. 

  The stores are mandating or strongly suggesting masks but I personally know people who are going to parties, gatherings, and other crowded activities acting like the worst is over.

  The US response has been so bad. As much as we see glaring mistakes on the state level this isn't something any state governor can fight alone. The Federal response has been incompetent and inadequate.

 

[Del Tachi]

It looks like Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, and Colorado all had their most new confirmed infections in over a month today. 

It really feels to me like the virus is unstoppable until we reach a certain immunity threshold, which perhaps only NYC right now has achieved.

Correction, it's only unstoppable for countries with failing administrations, like the United States and Brazil. Most of the rest of the world has gotten it under control (EU) or has completely eradicated it (Taiwan, NZ).

P.S. Nearly 62,000 new cases in one day. Fauci might be proven right yet again. 100k new cases a day is not that far off at this point.

What will happen once we reach that point? I can't even imagine how things are going to play out if we have that many cases per day. And deaths are going back up as well. We'll probably be back at the 1000-1500 deaths per day figure soon.

What will happen? What we've been trying to prevent from the get-go, a systematic collapse of our healthcare system and an increase of the COVID-19 mortality rate, alongside added casualties from other conditions that are left unattended due to an overloaded system.

Some states are already reaching their breaking points.

At this point, I'm starting to wonder if coronavirus will end up killing more Americans than the Civil War did. It would be absolutely terrifying to me if 600,000 or more Americans were to die from this.

2.8 million Americans died in 2019.

Even if COVID kills 600k, many of them would have died anyway due to their age or underlying conditions.  More than 80% of U.S. COVID deaths are in those over age 65.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1281237294851203076?s=21

8,935 new cases reported from today's report. 

Also the positivity rate went up to 18%. So while the case # is not setting new all-time highs, it appears that this is related to the testing system now running against capacity constraints. As long as the positivity rate is rising, things are not getting better even if case numbers start to level out.

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1281236300087975936

There are similar trends across other states, with positivity rates increasing even if case #s stop increasing as much due to test processing backlogs, and with more and more states reporting rising deaths, and with the median age of infections rising (showing that the idea that it doesn't matter if young people get infected is a fiction, since even if the young people survive and don't suffer permanent health effects, young people inevitably end up infecting more vulnerable people).


If we don't want the medical system to get overwhelmed, we likely need to lock down. Mask orders and changes in public behavior can hopefully reduce the rate of transmission, but even in countries like Japan and Hong Kong where masks are near universal (and with most people having higher quality surgical masks, and not just less effective cloth masks/bandannas) have seen cases steadily rising over the past week or so. This indicates that while masks and the like can help, it is unlikely that masks and the like alone can turn back an epidemic that is already as out-of-control as the American one.

We are hearing more and more about hospitals that are running low on ICU beds etc. Hospitals do have some surge capacity that can be mobilized, but this is not unlimited. Perhaps more importantly, we don't have an infinite supply of doctors and nurses to provide the same quality of care for an increased number of beds, which means the fatality rate will rise as quality of care suffers. Shortages of doctors/nurses in New York could be covered to a significant degree by doctors/nurses from other states traveling to New York and helping out. The problem now though is that we are on course for similar problems across vast swaths of the country, so we can't really just send medical personnel from other states to plug all the gaps.

To help maintain quality of care, the Federal Government should immediately start organizing a fully funded program to recruit doctors/nurses from other countries where the virus is under control (Germany, Taiwan, China, Italy, etc) to come and save us from ourselves, offering them ridiculously high temporary hazard pay to get them to come and provide humanitarian assistance. Call it the Emergency Medical Corps or something. If the virus ever gets under control in the USA, we can continue paying the Emergency Medical Corps and send them to India/Brazil or wherever else needs the help as a humanitarian gesture.