COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[GP270watch]

I went on a grocery run(much needed). Supermarket was well stocked and good number of people are already wearing masks. I didn't see any n95 construction masks or medical mask. I saw dust masks and cheaper masks. Cashiers have signs asking people stand 6 feet away but are still doing a lot of talking. Publix put some skinny floating plexiglass shields in front of the cashiers, looks very ineffective.

[GP270watch]

In terms of raw numbers of case gains and deaths, today will be the worst one yet, unfortunately

I've been following these projections and they've been a good predictor of what's coming so far.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1246240181440540672

 That is 66% for a random group that seems very high.

[GP270watch]

What can we do in the period of 30 days to 60 days that can bolster our position relative to the virus?

1. Rapid and antibody testing (They exist, they need to be mass produced)
2. Mass Production of supplies, ventilators and so forth.
3. Therapies

 Everything you want done takes massive government coordination with the public and private sector, organization and a huge labor force(that you also have to protect form getting sick), and competence to plan and direct all these actions. Good luck with that from this administration.

 Red avatars were also calling for some of these measures weeks ago.

 

 

[GP270watch]

 Trump just shrugged his soldiers very disrespectfully when a reporter asked him about video of Sailors applauding Captain Brett Crozier as he departed the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT. Pretending to know nothing about the situation but as he talked said he was wrong for writing a letter.

 

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1246564473189675009

We should just save ourselves time. This is the summary for every Trump press briefing.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/rmayemsinger/status/1246531751775580161

MAGA tragedy played out in real time, quite sad. Also been reading reports of people going to the hospital sick, being diagnosed with Covid-19 and fighting with Doctors to give them the medication Trump talked about in his speech.

 This is not the way to conduct healthcare even in a pandemic. Doctors are professionals and will use all tools available to them to save lives. They don't need people coming in with a politcal agenda undermining them. What a mess. I really hope these anti-malaria drugs actually work.

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1246911781198495745
From a member of the NYC Council health committee.

Could also be people dying at home because....people are being told to stay home?

Irresponsible to attribute these deaths solely to COVID in an effort to inflate numbers and spread panic.  

 Your comment doesn't even make sense. It's a 10 fold increase, people being at home doesn't explain that disparity. It's also in line with initial observations in Italy, Spain, and France about mostly older folks dying at home or nursing homes in much greater numbers. It's not like these elderly are normally zipping about town.

 The charecterization that an attempt to look at data is somebody "inflating numbers and spread panic" is what's really irresposible. We are going through a pandemic, what do you still not get about that?

 

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1246911781198495745
From a member of the NYC Council health committee.

Are at-home deaths not being tested post-mortem?

With what tests?

 

[GP270watch]

The Murray model has finally updated...and it looks good for America but bad for the "doom and gloomers".  The peak is now expected to come by mid-April, but the bigger news is that the death projections were revised down to 81K and that widespread hospital bed shortages are no longer expected.  The curves also look like things will be pretty much back to normal by May 1.

  These projections are exactly what was predicted if people started following social distancing guidelines. I posted that the projection for the peak was April 15th, a week ago. The point of extreme social distancing and shelter in place was so we wouldn't have a bed and ventilator shortage because the virus was not spreading as quickly.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=365781.msg7267724#msg7267724


 

[GP270watch]

Cuomo said this a week ago. Send ventitaltors where needed now and NY State would do the same later. Glad to see states that have managed this pandemic correctly are seeing the value of what he said.

[GP270watch]

 You can't blame Governor Tony Evers if Wisconsin sees a Covid-19 spike in a few weeks. The election photos coming in so far look like a recipe for disaster.

[GP270watch]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

[GP270watch]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

The peak or plateau depends on the deaths, not vice versa.

We're talking about deaths, so what's you point? The modeling for when deaths will peak is just an estimate. The day of maximum deaths is also not always followed by a steady drop in daily deaths, it can basically level out for days or weeks before the drop in daily deaths starts dropping. This looks like the case in Iran.

The model uses the time from implementation of social distancing measures to the peak of deaths in locations where this peak has already been reached or passed in order to model this relationship for locations where daily deaths have not yet reached their maximum.

[GP270watch]

U.S Deaths today are at 1,821

Holy crap...

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is within the range predicted. It's expected to be pretty bad for the next 21 days. How bad depends on what we do personally with our interactions, how hospitals can treat the infected, and what kind of peak or plateau we have.

The peak or plateau depends on the deaths, not vice versa.

We're talking about deaths, so what's you point?

Interactions and hospitals are causes of the deaths. Peak & plateau are descriptions of the deaths, not causes.

Context matters dude, several posters were alarmed about the high death total. I was responding about the deaths projected in the modeling and how many days going forward people can expect to see figures that shock them, wasn't that clear?

 

[GP270watch]

Sorry.

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. Not trying to confuse anybody.

[GP270watch]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/08/trump-evangelicals-coronavirus-china-174197

President Donald Trump’s evangelical boosters want China to pay a price for its handling of the coronavirus — preferably before voters deliver their verdict on Trump at ballot boxes this fall.

While Trump has vacillated between lauding China’s “transparency” and labeling Covid-19 the “Chinese virus,” some senior officials in his administration have lobbed their own criticisms at Beijing for its ongoing response to the coronavirus outbreak, which is widely believed to have originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. In mid-March, White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien claimed China “cost the world community two months” of preparation by concealing the extent of the outbreak in Wuhan.

So does America also get reparations for the damage caused by Trump downplaying the threat of COVID-19, encouraging his supporters and Fox News to treat it as a new hoax, and generally wasting valuable time pretending it wasn't a problem while it spread throughout the country?

 This is not a winning tactic for Trump outside of his base. Any intelligent person will ask why Trump ignored warnings from our own intelligence agencies. Even his own advisors told him the situation in China was worse than it was being portrayed and it was a real threat for the entire world and The United States.

[GP270watch]

Economic data studying prior pandemics shows cities and states who locked down and passed protective measures to flatten their curve, had a better economic rebound after the pandemic. Why is this being ignored?

 Secondly the wave of death is very real. Just talk to the doctors, nurses, emts, firefighters in Covid-19 hotspots. These people see carnage on the regular and have never experienced anything like this. This is a pandemic, why are people still confused about this?

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1248098666893754368

There will be so many more stories like this:

Minimized the threat, ignored best practices, got sick and died and put countless others in danger.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1247931506250723328

That's crazy, especially since effective social distancing measures are happening. This tracks very much with reports out of France, Italy, and Spain where they're having an inceased number of deaths that can only be explained by Covid-19.

[GP270watch]

 Trump is dumb, I've been saying this. It's pretty amazing how the dumb label hasn't stuck to Trump.

[GP270watch]

Visualized unexpected deaths in NYC.

[GP270watch]

Visualized unexpected deaths in NYC.

So the deadliest month in NYC after this month and 9/11 was January 2000. Did Y2K actually happen and get covered up?

1999-2000 was a bad Flu season. Not sure if that's the cause but I do remember that.

Early Flu Outbreak Has Hospitals Overflowing

[GP270watch]

 The EMTs and firefighters who are witnessing the deaths in NYC firsthand are saying they belive the majority of the deaths are Covid-19 illnesses. I trust their speculation more than some random person on the internet. I also haven't found anything tangible about increased suicides outside of economist arguing we will have this. There has actually been a decrease in homicides in many American cities but I can't find data on suicides, please link if you have any.

 Also people all of a sudden caring about suicides because of the economy, where have you been for 2 decades when suicide rates have skyrocketed because of "deaths of despair" and the very same economy.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1249767683802923016

So his family and some flunkies.