COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[It’s so Joever]

Also, everyone should be wearing some sort of face protection at this point when outside. It can be a bandana, a tied up shirt, whatever, just anything to block some of the air droplets that spread the disease.

[Grassroots]

We aren’t going to peak anytime soon. There will be a plateau and then a dramatic rise. We will have a second wave hit in the next few weeks. Unless we go on a national lockdown soon, we will have a third wave as well.

We will have a second wave in the fall (we will be more prepared and it won't require a lockdown). This is common knowledge. The "few weeks second mid-size city" wave you seem to have a fetish for isn't rooted in reality.

[It’s so Joever]

We aren’t going to peak anytime soon. There will be a plateau and then a dramatic rise. We will have a second wave hit in the next few weeks. Unless we go on a national lockdown soon, we will have a third wave as well.

We will have a second wave in the fall (we will be more prepared and it won't require a lockdown). This is common knowledge. The "few weeks second mid-size city" wave you seem to have a fetish for isn't rooted in reality.

Alright, let’s see.
I hope you are right.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245085075135496196

 So much potential infections with the cruise lines, Miami being an international city and airport, and the numerous festivals, fairs, spring breakers and vacationers. We've probably had all kinds of clusters throughout the state. Also we've had record heat for most of February and all of March in most of the state.

This is all on DeSantis. He's screwing this up, badly

[GP270watch]

They're modeling April 15th as the peak day of daily deaths in the United States.

Declare the pennies on your eyes.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I've given up hope on tests ever being rolled out in significant numbers.

Same for the antibody tests we were promised a week ago. Those could have been even more useful, and apparently we're not getting them.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I've given up hope on tests ever being rolled out in significant numbers.

Same for the antibody tests we were promised a week ago. Those could have been even more useful, and apparently we're not getting them.

This has actually struck me as the single biggest indictment of Trump’s entire response to the crisis.  At every single opportunity, Trump has completely denied there is any barrier to everyone getting a test, while remaining at best vague and at worst straight up dishonest about how many tests were coming, where they were coming from, and where they were going. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Today has been the deadliest day in America, with over 770 deaths

[Dr. Arch]

Today has been the deadliest day in America, with over 770 deaths

Still over an hour for the final numbers update. I'll post them here soon, but it's a nightmare nonetheless...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

[Grassroots]

They're modeling April 15th as the peak day of daily deaths in the United States.

Declare the pennies on your eyes.

Which means that the peak for new cases is probably before then, within the next 7 days.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

They're modeling April 15th as the peak day of daily deaths in the United States.

Declare the pennies on your eyes.

Which means that the peak for new cases is probably before then, within the next 7 days.

I'm guessing April 10.

[It’s so Joever]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

What in my post are you arguing with?

[Beet]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

[Green Line]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and itself Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

The doomsday numbers were for doomsday scenarios, respectively (what would have happened should we had done absolutely nothing, which we avoided doing, even if we reacted late). So, obviously, we aren't going to see the doomsday numbers.

[Green Line]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

The doomsday numbers were for doomsday scenarios, respectively (what would have happened should we had done absolutely nothing, which we avoided doing, even if we reacted late). So, obviously, we aren't going to see the doomsday numbers.

No, we had people on here and in the media just last week saying the numbers would be in the millions.  There hasn't been enough time for the social distancing across most of the country to even have a noticeable effect, and its already clear from the numbers that is not going to happen.

Florida has millions more residents than Illinois, and yet has less deaths and only 1K more confirmed cases in spite of the fact that they've tested 25K more.

[emailking]

It appears we are about to peak. We will peak over the next 7 days.

Maybe that's true but I don't see how it follows from your pictures. It appears to be growing exponentially.

[Sbane]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

The doomsday numbers were for doomsday scenarios, respectively (what would have happened should we had done absolutely nothing, which we avoided doing, even if we reacted late). So, obviously, we aren't going to see the doomsday numbers.

No, we had people on here and in the media just last week saying the numbers would be in the millions.  There hasn't been enough time for the social distancing across most of the country to even have a noticeable effect, and its already clear from the numbers that is not going to happen.

You can't deny the data that shows places like California and Washington that began working from home and sheltering in place early have managed to flatten the curve much better than places like New York which denied the problem at the beginning and lost valuable time.

[Green Line]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

The doomsday numbers were for doomsday scenarios, respectively (what would have happened should we had done absolutely nothing, which we avoided doing, even if we reacted late). So, obviously, we aren't going to see the doomsday numbers.

No, we had people on here and in the media just last week saying the numbers would be in the millions.  There hasn't been enough time for the social distancing across most of the country to even have a noticeable effect, and its already clear from the numbers that is not going to happen.

You can't deny the data that shows places like California and Washington that began working from home and sheltering in place early have managed to flatten the curve much better than places like New York which denied the problem at the beginning and lost valuable time.

Oh, I don't deny that sheltering in place has some effect, correct.  I never argued that it wasn't going to reduce the numbers, I just said that its effect wasn't worth the damage in the long run to society (if we in fact have extended stay at home orders, which remains to be seen).  I think we might have gone off the cliff by the end of April, but hopefully not.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/31 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Today):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

[It’s so Joever]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

The doomsday numbers were for doomsday scenarios, respectively (what would have happened should we had done absolutely nothing, which we avoided doing, even if we reacted late). So, obviously, we aren't going to see the doomsday numbers.

No, we had people on here and in the media just last week saying the numbers would be in the millions.  There hasn't been enough time for the social distancing across most of the country to even have a noticeable effect, and its already clear from the numbers that is not going to happen.

Florida has millions more residents than Illinois, and yet has less deaths and only 1K more confirmed cases in spite of the fact that they've tested 25K more.

The numbers still could be in the millions, but I stand by my 500,000 guess.
You are correct though, that shelter-in-place orders haven’t had time to take their effect. As we saw from Italy and China, it takes a few weeks to see how the measures are working.
I still don’t think we will reach a peak unless we either have a two-week nationwide lockdown, or begin mass testing and isolation of cases (which seems pretty difficult/borderline impossible in most States)

[Meclazine for Israel]

First up today.

A continuation of trends previously monitored in the growth in "Active Cases" with Germany really flattening the curve over the last two days. Italy would appear to be past the the worst of it in terms of growth. Growth of the virus in Germany and Italy appears to be slowing in line with expectation. Spain will be interesting to watch over the next week.



France and the USA have both experienced an uptick in growth. Despite the scale on the graph and the 3 day moving average reducing the visual effect, France had a 24% increase yesterday in 'Active Cases' which is significant. If France and USA continue to grow, the averaging will show a sharp increase in this line over the next 3-4 days.

Looking at 'Active Case' growth in countries where this pandemic is newly established:

1   55.6%   Martinique
2   42.3%   Argentina
3   42.2%   Cameroon
4   38.2%   Philippines
5   32.6%   Madagascar
6   29.5%   Russia
7   28.6%   French Guiana
8   26.7%   Algeria
9   26.1%   Turkey
10   25.3%   Brazil

These countries have a minimum of 50 'Active Cases' to make this list.

I have a strange feeling this thing spreads through air conditioning systems. People correctly isolating on cruise ships, planes, the hospitals, apartments and yet these are the areas of highest infection.

If this virus lasts 9 days on surfaces and spreads through the air, then, with the right climatic conditions, it is possible it spreads through air conditioning. Just an assertion based on looking at the data and the countries involved.

In poor African countries were people live almost exclusively without air conditioning in comparison to Western civilisation, the rates of infection are still remarkably low.

Maybe the lack of travel in close quarter facilities such as cruise ships also helps. Maybe higher temperatues are helping in humid conditions. Too early to say at this stage.

Some of these poor countries can ill afford to deal with this pandemic having already been gripped by every other disease known to mankind.

The DRC is a country in central Africa currently experiencing other disease outbreaks, be they endemic or epidemic. A country where 6 out of 10 children do not reach their 5th birthday, the DRC is right in the tropical centre of Africa and has numerous diseases currently not contained. In order of mortality, these include:

• Malaria is a massive killer in Africa, and nowhere more prevalent than in DRC with 400 people per day killed;
• Tuberculosis is very prevalent in the DRC;
• HIV around 1-5% of the population. 10% of TB patients are HIV positive;
• Measles - a new outbreak killing small children in large numbers kicked up in 2019;( - https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/congo-disease-worse-than-ebola/)
• Ebola outbreak since 2018 that is not eradicated yet; (mortality rate:65%)
• Cholera outbreak is current.

Together with hemorrhagic fever, polio and typhoid active in the community, the DRC also has a civil war with rebels which is a huge risk to doctors and epidemiologists who enter the country.

'Doctors without Borders' recently vacated the country because of the risks:

https://qz.com/africa/1601427/ebola-who-cameroon-doctor-killed-in-dr-congo/

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/nov/28/ebola-health-workers-killed-and-injured-by-rebel-attack-in-congo

Hence a big noteworthy thanks to all of the medics and first responders who are dealing with this and other epidemic/pandemic(s).

I watched a CBS news story from NY Hospitals last night, and the doctors and nurses were presented with an impossible situation moving forward. And not just the USA, 12,000 Spanish health workers have now tested positive for Corona-virus.