New PA Maps In Effect

[LimoLiberal]

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Appears Open To Striking Down Gerrymandered Map

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pennsylvania-gerrymandering_us_5a5f8856e4b046f0811c5bbe?f7e

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Major boon for Democratic house chances if they get this ruling.

[LimoLiberal]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

Who made this?!

Well Cohn had it in the NYT piece as a strawman to show how harsh the Pubs could be with the map. However, if I was to guess who made it, it was probably Dave Wasserman since he and 538 are coming out with a bunch of scenarios in all 50 states soon. On the other hand, perhaps I am blind, and can't see a author on the page.

Wasserman probably thinks that this is a fair map, because muh Democrats gerrymandered too!111!

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/955526442640605184

crap crap crap crap

I have no faith in SCOTUS.

[LimoLiberal]

How would Cartwright not benefit? Doesn't he lose Schuykill, where Trump got 70%, in any fair map?

[LimoLiberal]

If there is a throwaway line about teachers unions somewhere in that statement, that's the real deal.

??

[LimoLiberal]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)



PHILLY


PITTSBURGH


1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

Splitting Scranton and Wilkes-Barre is a blatant R gerrymander.

[LimoLiberal]

Is their any way anybody can calculate the PVI for the districts in this map?

I'm currently doing 17 and 15 in DRA. I'll tell y'all their approximate in a few minutes.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

For everyone using DRA, be sure you selected the second option on the Map select screen. The first option that is auto-chosen has only 1/3 of precincts with PVI data.

oh thank you.

Apparently I don't have the right PVIs, but I can tell you that PA-15 goes from 52-46 Obama 2008 district to a 56-43 win. I'm certain it wouldn't have been such a drastic shift in 2016 (the disparity between the conservative rural precincts and Lehigh/Northampton/Carbon leveled off more).

In fact, my super rough calculations have the new PA-15 going somewhere around 162,000 Trump to 156,000 for Hillary. It would become shift from a 51.8-44.2 Trump district to a 49-47 Trump district.

[LimoLiberal]

Wait, PA-15 got more Republican?!?

[LimoLiberal]

Nate Cohen got the 2016 results:



Source

Lmao. Went from 12-6 Trump map to a 13-5 Trump map.

You tried.

[LimoLiberal]

Nate Cohen got the 2016 results:



Source

If this became the map: (pickups in bold)

PA-1: Safe D
PA-2 Safe D
PA-3 Safe R
PA-4: Safe R
PA-5: Safe R
PA-6: Lean R (This is like Dave Brat's district)
PA-7: Likely D
PA-8: Lean R
PA-9: Safe R
PA-10: Safe R
PA-11: Likely R (Holden runs?)
PA-12: Lean R (Downballot Dem strength)
PA-13: Safe D
PA-14: Safe D
PA-15: Tossup
PA-16: Safe R (It's Lancaster County...)
PA-17: Likely R (Trump vs. Clinton #s are useless here)
PA-18: Safe R (in the general election)

So a Dem-Rep-Tossup split of 5-12-1

[LimoLiberal]

Nate Cohen got the 2016 results:



Source

If this became the map: (pickups in bold)

PA-1: Safe D
PA-2 Safe D
PA-3 Safe R
PA-4: Safe R
PA-5: Safe R
PA-6: Lean R (This is like Dave Brat's district)
PA-7: Likely D
PA-8: Lean R
PA-9: Safe R
PA-10: Safe R
PA-11: Likely R (Holden runs?)
PA-12: Lean R (Downballot Dem strength)
PA-13: Safe D
PA-14: Safe D
PA-15: Tossup
PA-16: Safe R (It's Lancaster County...)
PA-17: Likely R (Trump vs. Clinton #s are useless here)
PA-18: Safe R (in the general election)

So a Dem-Rep-Tossup split of 5-12-1

Also the 17th is not Likely-R, this is 4 points more Democratic than the current district and Cartwright doesn't even have anything close to a strong challenger right now. Likely/Safe D

Crap, it should be likely D. Hence my parenthetical comments.

[LimoLiberal]

Oh, you think the PA Supreme Court will draw a fair map......

snip

Well I suppose we'll find out by next Monday. There has already been a lot of discussion about what the map could look like based on the rules the PASC dictated. It seems very unlikely they would push an unfair map, unless your definition of an unfair map was anything more friendly to Democrats than the current map. Do court-drawn maps even have a track record for being overly biased in favor of one party? I don't recall it being an issue.

I remember some Republicans complaining about Minnesota, yet as we've seen it's really been a great map with lots of potentially competitive races.

Minnesota is an objectively awesome map. There's a minority-ish district, a white liberal district, a wealthy suburb district, a working-class suburb district, a mining district, a driftless-area district, an agricultural rural district.

[LimoLiberal]

Lt. Governor's map.

This is my favorite so far. Don't why other maps are leaving Cartwright for the birds.

[LimoLiberal]

Anybody know what time the maps will be released tomorrow?

[LimoLiberal]

BREAKING: New Pennsylvania Congressional Maps

https://tinyurl.com/2fcpre6

[LimoLiberal]

Oh sh*t. That's an amazing map for Dems.


\


https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/965673336251518976

[LimoLiberal]

Lamb (if he gets elected) looks totally screwed, and so does Cartwright. The only improvements for Dems are in Costello/Meehan/and possibly Dent's.

This is called lying. ^^^

Dent, Costello, and Meehan's all zoom left considerably. PA-17 becomes more left leaning as well. I bet Cartwright stays about the same, but it may move left a little with all of Lackawanna included. Lamb is the only real loser here for Dems.... everything else is extremely good for them.

[LimoLiberal]

Fitzpatrick will most likely be the only R of the 8 eastern-most districts come November.

[LimoLiberal]

I attempted to calculate the PVI of Matthew Cartwrights new District. Seems like an R+0.94, which is close to where his old District was.

Yeah, Nate Cohn has it going from 53.4-43.3 Trump to 53.2-43.7. Basically the same, though it will be new territory for Cartwright, which probably makes him a little more vulnerable.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump v. Hillary numbers for each district, via Nate Cohn:



8-10 split.

[LimoLiberal]

With Cartwright, effectively 9-9. Could easily be an 11-7 map in a wave.

So much for Dems having to settle for 6-12 or 7-11 because of MUH GEOGRAPHY, LOL @ King Lear

Which 2 exactly will those wave seats come from? The only one I see is the Erie district if the Obama/Trump crowd comes home.

The Pittsburgh suburbs district and the Harrisburg district. New PA-10 and PA-17. Lamb will almost certainly run in PA-17 against Rothfus and is probably favored - a Trump +2 district that every other statewide democrat wins easily in a blue environment.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

Safe Cartwright, at least for the this cycle.

Don't get confused. OLD PA-17 was the Scranton - Wilkes-Barre district that Cartwright held. The NEW one is the western Pittsburgh suburbs. Pretty sure Horus was referring to the new one.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm most interested to see who wins the new 17th. It's a narrow Trump district but ancestrally Dem.

Safe Cartwright, at least for the this cycle.

Don't get confused. OLD PA-17 was the Scranton - Wilkes-Barre district that Cartwright held. The NEW one is the western Pittsburgh suburbs. Pretty sure Horus was referring to the new one.

Oh man, you are right, I'm going to get so confused.

yeah we should probably sticky the map of the new districts so people can refer back to it... it's going to get very confusing very fast.