Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So Lieberman will support the bill which would prevent anyone under indictment from forming a government. It will apply for the NEXT election, however, and not right now. I suppose it is designed to disincentivize new elections for the Likud, but I doubt that it does.

He will also support an eight years term limits for PMs. If they want these laws to stand and not get overturned in the next election, it needs to be backed up by a KL-LGM minority government supported by YB, Hadash, Taal and Raam from outside and with Balad abstaining. There's no other way.

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Looks like Lieberman has terms for this: unity government with Likud first in rotation, getting the Knesset Speakership, and getting the Presidency

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This is...interesting. Bogie Yalon, leader of the right wing Telem faction that is part of the three parties comprising Blue and White, says he supports forming a minority government backed by the Joint List. Yalon and Telem have long been seen as the biggest obstacle within Blue and White to a leftist minority government

Wow wow wow, as they say.

Lol, thank you Amit Segal!

Anyway, I won't get excited until Lieberman agrees.

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https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2020_q1/Article-c60ef7a0d3ca071027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1898243326

Translation- "Liberman in personal conversations: the goal is to sent Netanyahu home".

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Just compared the election results from last time to this time in my city (periphery town, Arab-Jewish, the Jews are split half Russians half Moroccans basically so very right wing):
1. The Arab part increased the turnout, increasing from 2340 to 2755 votes
2. Likud rose from 3253 to 3768 (first place), while Yamina went down from 650 to 570, Shas from 697 to 669, Otzma from 186 to 35 (!) and Yisrael Beiteinu from 2340 to 2142 (so Likud increased from these votes and a small amount of new voters, but new voters were mostly Arabs probably). Worrying sign for Lieberman, the Russians are seeping off. Also I saw a ton of Otzma signs, they must have the biggest signs to votes ratio.
3. KL went up from 1164 to 1203- probably from the left voters
4. But the left lists together (284 for Labour Gesher and 184 for Democratic Camp) decreased much more than KL gained, now earning 265, less than Labour Gesher got alone). This means that Orly-Amir DID get some periphery voters who now moved to Likud\didn't vote
5. UTJ rose from 105 to 143- the Haredim in the city are increasing folks (but also probably some Otzma voters)
6. Overall turnout increase is 62.54%->63.65%, so with the Arabs rising by hundreds of votes I doubt Likud got a lot of new voters here. It means, to me, that they still have some substantial untapped resources of non-voters

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I analyzed some other results and got some curious stuff:

First, there's one (1) Otzma voter in the nearby Arab village.
It's a huge decrease from the 2 they got in the last round

Tel Aviv
Democratic Camp alone- 38,298
MLG- 38,797
19,208 Labour voters mostly gone. KL went 113,843 -> 128,591 which is mostly these voters but it still leaves a few thousands, so I could see some south Tel Aviv Kulanu->Labour->Likud too. Oh and also these guys: JL 8,446->11,410, but it's probably mostly from Jaffe turnout increase.

Jerusalem
Some interesting sh**t going on here. Overall turnout increase is just 0.1%, some 2000 people.
LGM with 12,919, while last time DC was at 9,391 and Labour 8,846, so it seems about 6K went to KL (or to some extent JL\Likud).
Now for the real boom:
UTJ was the largest party with 64,937, Likud second at 59,798.
Now it's Likud with 72,601, UTJ with 63,782, interesting because nationally the UTJ votes rose (curse reproduction). So Likud rose by a huge amount- about 12K.
Shas actually rose by 3000 votes in Jerusalem, so their voters didn't go to Likud. I guess a few UTJ ones did.
Also YB who fell by 2000, and Otzma who went 8,794->1,784, all probably went Likud.
Joint List is 3,582 -> 5,321, which probably accounts for all of the rise in turnout- Likud didn't get almost any new voters in Jerusalem.
Now, remember how the left lost 6K to KL? Well, KL only rose by 2K. So where did 4K go? Likud, I guess.
Which means that Likud's 12K and Shas' 3K rise could mostly be accounted for by: 1K UTJ, 7K Otzma, 2K YB, 4K KL. That's 14K of the 15K, the rest are a smathering of new voters, tiny parties and weird voters. Probably also Labour voters but I counted them as KL because they're part of the same overall flow in my mind.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A Yisrael Beuteinu and Blue and White MK each gave separate assurances that a government was going to be formed and that a fourth election would be avoided. The KL MK offered support to a minority government propped up by the Joint List, although je said that including in the government was out of the question (baby steps, right?). Ayman Odeh will lead a meeting of his faction today, at which they are expected to discuss recommending Gantz to form the government. Anything can happen (just look at this last week), but I would be very, very surprised if at least 12 of the 15 Joint List MKs do not recommend Gantz and ultimately support a leftist minority government. The Joint Lists's list of demands for supporting Gantz is ridiculously modest. Usually parties ask for the whole moon, get a small sliver of it, and walk away glad they at least weren't eclipsed. The Joint List is asking for a very small sliver.

I'd say that the biggest obstacle here is Yisrael Beiteinu, though. Did they give any sign that they'd support this minority government, regardless of recommending Gantz?

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So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

it will boil down to Hendel/Hauser causing problems XOR Balad+Kassif causing problems. if either happens it will be untenable.

I wouldn't discount Ra'am cutting a deal with Likud either. KL are being dumb about this and don't seem to be making effort at getting the JL's support, taking them for granted.

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Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

Some MKs on the right will make up for those votes. Ohana (of course), Regev, Kahlon, Haskel etc.

What’s YBs stance on SSM? I haven’t seen anything but we all know the Russian community can be quite homophobic

Yeah. Last election YB just kept silent so that they could get the votes of ultra secular anti-Haredi Tel Aviv people but also keep the extremely homophobic Russian base.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman gave a green light to replacing Edlestein as Speaker, Meir Cohen from Yesh Atid will likely get it. Bye b*tch!

Important to note that once he's elected by vote, the new speaker will require a special majority to replace, so Cohen might be perched up there even if Netanyahu somehow forms a government.

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Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

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Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

Might just vote Joint List if there's a fourth election lol

[America Needs R'hllor]

Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

Might just vote Joint List if there's a fourth election lol

Can't wait for your post on why you support Joint List.  Imagine if the Joint List seat count reaches 20.

I probably won't. I physically can't vote homophobes and Balad in. But Orly Levy stole our votes and it's outrageous. Gantz and Peretz need to get their racists in line fast.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

Might just vote Joint List if there's a fourth election lol

Can't wait for your post on why you support Joint List.  Imagine if the Joint List seat count reaches 20.

I probably won't. I physically can't vote homophobes and Balad in. But Orly Levy stole our votes and it's outrageous. Gantz and Peretz need to get their racists in line fast.

Why is she a racist? Still trying to push a unity government in 2020 is flat out stupid but you’re overreacting a bit

She might come around anyways who knows

If you can't even live with outside support from the representatives of Israel's Arab minority...

[America Needs R'hllor]

Anyway, I'm feeling truly betrayed because I was always defending Orly and happy to welcome her into the camp. This is much less excusable than Hendel and Hauser's actions- they're acting incredibly stupid and outright destructive, yes, but they're not going against anything KL said in the past. Orly Levy got into the Knesset because of leftists only- in fact, analysis shows more than half of LGM's votes were from Meretz, whom she's deriding now. Peretz explicitly said they're supporting a minority government, and almost anyone who voted LGM is supporting it. Now, she's spitting us all in the face. In fact, she actually said before the election that she has no problem with JL outside support, so she's a liar as well as a traitor to her partners and a vote thief. Disgusting.

[America Needs R'hllor]

By the way, the Coronavirus thing is another reason that this is the last chance for Gantz to form a government. Bibi is handling it professionally and looks like a leader in a time of crisis- a new election (if it won't be postponed by a year or so) WILL give him a majority. Hendel, Hauser and Levy are practically going to destroy Israeli democracy if they aren't put back in line. This is the country's last chance.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Still remains to be seen if Gantz will stick to his guns on this or not, but if it's the latter, I fear we'll be able to say "so that's how Israeli democracy dies, in an epidemic". Hendel and Hauser need to be forced in line.

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Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

Depends. You'd need a majority to dissolve the Knesset, so thar means Likud cooperating with the Joint List or with Yisrael Beiteinu. Person I think it wouldn't last long but who knows.

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Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

Depends. You'd need a majority to dissolve the Knesset, so thar means Likud cooperating with the Joint List or with Yisrael Beiteinu. Person I think it wouldn't last long but who knows.

The Knesset also dissolves automatically if you can’t pass the budget (thanks to the Prussian constitutional crisis of 1870’s). But I think the working assumption was that they would work quite fast on broadening the government exploiting Shaw’s inherent pull towards money

Yeah, in any case it's mostly theoretical right now, a minority government seems unlikely to me. Except if the wonder couple can be reined in.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Three things are happening:
Bibi heavily promoting the "emergency unity government"
Bibi's trial officially delayed indefinitely due to the justice system shutting down
Bibi has announced that counterterrorist monitoring methods might be used to ensure isolation, ala Taiwan.

Combine all three, and I fear our democracy has never been so imperiled. If Hendel-Hauser have an ounce of caring about democracy left, they'll endorse a minority government. Gantz needs to make it clear that Netanyahu is the one blocking a fair unity government and get a minority emergency government going.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Anyways fück anti-zionists

Netanyahu's Minister of Justice announced in the middle of the night, after all newspapers went into print, that the justice system will be frozen, and oops... Netanyahu's trial is postponed. Litzman tried to get the Yeshivahs exempted from the order for education institutions to close, because he's EVERYONE'S health minister.
I'd rather have a thousand anti Zionists propping a democratic government from outside at this point. Just replace it asap.

[America Needs R'hllor]

By the way, we've also seen one important contrast between other leaders, who are trying to tell their citizens to be cautious and understand the seriousness but also calm them, and Netanyahu. This man has been appearing on national television primetime every day, making sure none of the new restrictions are announced before that, and giving long, confused speeches that make people confused about the new restrictions, but most importantly- use the harshest and most apocalyptic scare language. This is classic authoritarian tactics. I fear that the Coronavirus might be a national emergency, but Netanyahu is an even worse national emergency. Who says he won't start using counterterrorist laws to arrest dissenters in the next emergency because it's "the need of the hour" (the same words Minister Yariv Levin used to tell the President he needs to give Netanyahu the mandate- regardless of recommendations)? Before anyone tells me I'm being hyperbolic, I'd say the same to anyone who'd claim that Netanyahu will use a pandemic to save himself from trial and monitor everyone, so I no longer believe there's anything he won't do. History will judge Hendel and Hauser.

[America Needs R'hllor]

By the way, we've also seen one important contrast between other leaders, who are trying to tell their citizens to be cautious and understand the seriousness but also calm them, and Netanyahu. This man has been appearing on national television primetime every day, making sure none of the new restrictions are announced before that, and giving long, confused speeches that make people confused about the new restrictions, but most importantly- use the harshest and most apocalyptic scare language. This is classic authoritarian tactics. I fear that the Coronavirus might be a national emergency, but Netanyahu is an even worse national emergency. Who says he won't start using counterterrorist laws to arrest dissenters in the next emergency because it's "the need of the hour" (the same words Minister Yariv Levin used to tell the President he needs to give Netanyahu the mandate- regardless of recommendations)? Before anyone tells me I'm being hyperbolic, I'd say the same to anyone who'd claim that Netanyahu will use a pandemic to save himself from trial and monitor everyone, so I no longer believe there's anything he won't do. History will judge Hendel and Hauser.

Let's wait until Handel and Hauser vote against (and not just abstain) a Gantz government before villainizing them too much.

What I'm saying is that if they prevent a minority government they'll be judged by history.
Also yeah- the Joint List just recommended Gantz, Balad "opposed any recommendation but accepted the decision of the majority". This means that if Lieberman does endorse Gantz, he should get the mandate.