Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Yesh Atid MKs are going to abstain from the vote. KL is done. And I can easily say it now- Yesh Atid and Lapid >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hosen and Gantz.

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It's honestly amazing. Failing while you have both Lieberman and the Arabs on board is... well, it requires a special type of dumb.

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According to Amit Segal (a known Bibi shill so grain of salt):
There's gonna be a 78-person coalition: 58 from the right-religious bloc, 3 from Labour, 17 from Hosen + Hendel\Hauser, maybe Orly Levy too
Justice Minister- Hili Trooper (Hosen)
Knesset Speaker- Likud till 2021 (so probably Edlestein lmao)
Internal Security- Likud
Defense- Ashkenazi
Foreign and stand in PM- Ashkenazi
In September 2021, they switch places (rotation agreement, as if Bibi won't just call an election in August lmao)

There's already a misreporting here, there won't be 3 from Labour because Merav Michaeli already attacked Gantz for the intent to sit with Netanyahu so they won't join.

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Prediction: Gantz as new Likud leader in 2 years.

Yes.

Lol do you think Likud will elect him? They'll throw him to the trashbin of history.

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Prediction: Gantz as new Likud leader in 2 years.

Yes.

Lol do you think Likud will elect him? They'll throw him to the trashbin of history.

You think Miri Regev or Miki Mahlouf Zohar will replace Netanyahu? Bibi has systematically cleansed the party of viable replacements and so now there are none. Gantz is a really horrible politician, so I doubt he has it in him to lead anything. But this is certainly plausible.

Regev would beat him in a 1 vs 1 leadership race is my bet. But it'll be someone else like Barkat or an outside candidate.

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Update on ministry speculations:
Finance Ministry is likely to go to Katz (even though Bibi promised it to Barkat- oops!), Education was apparently offered to Bennet (he's denying), Nissankorn is the leading candidate for Justice but trooper might get it.

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Inside Hosen, according to Tal Schneider:
Nissankorn didn't like the move, supported Meir Cohen to the end
MKs Yizhar Shai, Shuster and Mreeh don't like joining Netanyahu
Trooper, Farkash-HaCohen, Biton and Zamir pushed for unity

[America Needs R'hllor]

Inside Hosen, according to Tal Schneider:
Nissankorn didn't like the move, supported Meir Cohen to the end
MKs Yizhar Shai, Shuster and Mreeh don't like joining Netanyahu
Trooper, Farkash-HaCohen, Biton and Zamir pushed for unity

Any way they can defect?

They probably won't (and shouldn't at this point, if we're going on that road Gantz should at least have some degree of influence on that awful right wing government).

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Miri Regev when supporting Gantz for Speaker: "yes, do you think I can say no to my neighbour?"

Other updates: Hendel, Hauser and Orly Levy voted for Speaker Gantz, Amir Peretz (who's receiving offers to be Agriculture Minister) said he was abstaining (like his fellow Merav Michaeli).

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Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

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I'm 90% sure that Parrotguy will vote for the Joint List next election and why can't the sane Israeli left join in a Alliance. 

I doubt it My identity still includes zionism to an extent, and definitely includes being gay- that's bar me from voting for any party with Ra'am and Balad.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

Don't you lot say this every week though? Is it for real this time?

Might, they're not denying this right now. If they don't join I'll be the first to applaud them but right now Michaeli is the only one taking a strong stance.

But yeah, the rumours about this are persistent and tiring

[America Needs R'hllor]

Some silver-linings: Amir Ohana will be kicked out of the Justice Minister, Bennet won't be Defense Minister, Regev won't be Culture and Sports Minister (I think). Israeli democracy will probably survive...

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Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

I honestly wouldn't care that much.

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Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

Isn't that meant to be an at least moderately "respected across the board" figure?

Well, the PM isn't meant to be an indicted defendant and the Speaker is supposed to respect Supreme Court verdicts but here we are

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Gadeer Mreeh from Hosen, the first Druze woman MK in Israel, voices opposition to Gantz's decisions, saying that "a leader doesn't betray his values" and that she "won't sit one day under the corrupt man from balfour". Considering she's directly giving up a Ministry, it's pretty impressive.

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Ofer Shelah and Pnina Tamano Shata are definitely strong. Yesh Atid has better MKs than Hosen. Also, this isn't a bad poll at all.

The movements we're expected to see between Hosen, YA and Telem:
Hendel and Hauser from Telem -> Hosen
Mreeh from Hosen -> YA\Telem
Andrey Kozhinov from Telem is apparently staying, but he voted for Gantz as Speaker so not entirely clear yet.
Orly Fruman from Telem is still undecided. Ya'alon, in founding a party with right wing figures, might be left alone in it.
Still unclear what can be done about the legal obstacles to all this. I have a feeling they'll treat the breakup as a break of one party (which is allowed if there are more than a third wanting to separate) rather than a break of several parties to allow all these movements. If Kozhinov and Fruman stay in Telem, the Kahol Lavan name will stay under Lapid.

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Kozhinov staying with Telem

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Put Lucy Aharish at #2 in Yesh Atid and you'll get at least five seats from Gantz.

Oh yeah by the way, Lucy Aharish is definitely going into politics. Watch her in the next couple years.

[America Needs R'hllor]

"The Tibi coalition" is an interesting (read: delusional and shamelessly racist) way to describe a Zionist-center-left minority government that would have had outside confidence and supply from the Arabs. But delusion and shameless racism (whether against Ostjuden or Sephardim and Mizrahim or Arabs) have characterized a certain current in the Zionist center-left for a very long time, so I agree with you that it's not logical for these people to prefer a fundamentalist ethnarchy over AAAAAH AY-RABS.

I wouldn't see you downplay the significance of "outside confidence and supply" when it would be a hypothetical CDU-FDP coalition with AfD outside support in Sachsen (or indeed similar hypothetical arrangements with much more mainstream parties on the European right). What's the difference?
Current and recent former JL MKs have made endlessly more problematic comments on Jews than Höcke ever did.

Apart from that, Zionism is about Jews being in control of their own Jewish state. A weak minority government relying on Arab parties who are outright hostile to the idea of Israel as a Jewish state would seriously jeopardize this idea of Zionism and everyone who is intellectually honest knows this.

I'd just like to point out that the Joint List is the sole representation of the Arab minority in Israel, a minority with a very complicated history and relationship with us that we cannot ignore. That they were willing to support a government lead by three former army chiefs and the known racist Lieberman is a huge step forward for a shared and peaceful life in this small plot of land, and the left should've unequivocally taken it.

It's also high time the Israeli left stops being such a weak and tired politicial force with no appetite for winning- if Netanyahu could he'd easily form a government with outside support from anyone because he wants to win. It's pathetic that the left refused to take a free win- both Lieberman and the Arabs were ok board and we still failed! It's absolutely ridiculous.

As far the Afd... They represent no one but the far right and the historical context for them is problematic rather than one that should cause more understanding, as with the Arabs. Just look at this old piece of news I found:

"The AfD council members in the Leipzig city council opppsed a proposal by Linke to name a bridge after Georg Alzer, who attempted to assassinate Hitler in 1939. Their reason is that Alzer's attack was a danger to the life of others."

And another one:
"Afd MP Roland Ulbrich on the recent synagogue shooting: "it's a damage to property and nothing else. Judicially, it isn't even an attempt to kill praying people. What's worse? Two dead Germans or damage to a synagogue door?" "

This is the party for the Germans who didn't learn from the holocaust, the party for a slow slide back to fascism and racism that will endanger minorities like Muslims and Jews. It's an entirely different situation. Yes, the Joint List politicians had terrible statements, but they're representing a minority that, sadly, felt a lot of pain from us over the years. Accepting help from them will move Israel into a future with more coexistence and less racism, and that's all the difference.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Little known bit of gossip, Lucy Aharish was neatly placed at Gabay’s Labour when suddenly Gantz surfaced and it looked like Labour aren’t going anywhere near 15 seats. I personally don’t like her that much but it’s an improvement to have her on the panel (especially compared to the demented hag Mazlih)

Interesting! I can easily see her on some left list lead by Yair Golan or on the Yesh Atid list, depending on which direction she wants to go.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Descriptively of course there is, there exists democracies which satisfy the majoritarian principle and have an ethnic constitutional basis. You might not think that it’s *desirable*, or that any democracy should always contingently come with an absolute equality before the law (still reconcilable with ethnic democracy), or even a stronger case where no there should be no ethnic trait to the state (and the problem lies here).

I am not a big fan of democracy, nation states, or any popular based institution. But your claim is too rigid if you also want to maintain a group right of self determination. Or as a matter of fact enable non liberal societies to move towards a liberal path an ethnic democracy might be a necessary pre condition.

Could you provide examples of ''ethnic democracies''? The subject would be fascinating to be discussed in another board, as well the right to self determination (its true meaning, in which cases it's enforceable, which people has precedence in case of territorial conflict...). I'd say that Israel is a particular case and most western democracies have constitutions based on liberal principles, but...

In any case, I think democracy is both defined by the majority rule and by the scrupulous respect for minorities. When the Israeli government tries to disenfranchise (even partially) its official Arab minority with the Nation State Law, it's undermining one of the pillars of democracy. Let alone the existence of a consolidated 'status quo', in fact a one-state reality. Israel extends beyond the pre-1967 border to incorporate the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Given that it's unlikely that Israel resigns territorial gains, the Jewish state or the 'ethnic democracy' seem only possible by the disenfranchisement of nearly 1/2 of the population between the Jordan and the Sea

And that's where you agree with the zionist left. We firmly believe that without a two state solution, Israel will not be able to remain both Jewish and democratic. We believe in a country that serves as home for the Jewish people but respects its minorities and gives them full rights. Personally, I refuse to take the "Jewish" part over the "democratic" part.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Little known bit of gossip, Lucy Aharish was neatly placed at Gabay’s Labour when suddenly Gantz surfaced and it looked like Labour aren’t going anywhere near 15 seats. I personally don’t like her that much but it’s an improvement to have her on the panel (especially compared to the demented hag Mazlih)

Interesting! I can easily see her on some left list lead by Yair Golan or on the Yesh Atid list, depending on which direction she wants to go.

Is there a chance of Labor (on their own) surging, even if it’s to 9-10 seats as they were predicted before the April 2019 elections? A lot of their voter base voted for Gantz instead of them in order to make B&W the largest party

It seems increasingly like they're going to enter the government for Peretz to become Minister of Agriculture and Shmuli to become Deputy Minister of Welfare (lol), if they do they're good as dead. But really, this is Israeli politics, who knows.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Descriptively of course there is, there exists democracies which satisfy the majoritarian principle and have an ethnic constitutional basis. You might not think that it’s *desirable*, or that any democracy should always contingently come with an absolute equality before the law (still reconcilable with ethnic democracy), or even a stronger case where no there should be no ethnic trait to the state (and the problem lies here).

I am not a big fan of democracy, nation states, or any popular based institution. But your claim is too rigid if you also want to maintain a group right of self determination. Or as a matter of fact enable non liberal societies to move towards a liberal path an ethnic democracy might be a necessary pre condition.

Could you provide examples of ''ethnic democracies''? The subject would be fascinating to be discussed in another board, as well the right to self determination (its true meaning, in which cases it's enforceable, which people has precedence in case of territorial conflict...). I'd say that Israel is a particular case and most western democracies have constitutions based on liberal principles, but...

In any case, I think democracy is both defined by the majority rule and by the scrupulous respect for minorities. When the Israeli government tries to disenfranchise (even partially) its official Arab minority with the Nation State Law, it's undermining one of the pillars of democracy. Let alone the existence of a consolidated 'status quo', in fact a one-state reality. Israel extends beyond the pre-1967 border to incorporate the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Given that it's unlikely that Israel resigns territorial gains, the Jewish state or the 'ethnic democracy' seem only possible by the disenfranchisement of nearly 1/2 of the population between the Jordan and the Sea

Most of the European state are ethnic democracies to a degree, even liberal Germany has a law of return for German ethnics. France is really the only state with a clear ethnic/nation separation de jure, the rest are on a spectrum. Israel is a bit closer to Central Europe conception of the nation state where the nationality is also strongly linked with ethnicity.

I don’t think your conceptualization excludes ethnic democracies as long as they provide minorities with ample protection either through human rights or through collective autonomy rights (e.g. the danish minority in SH state of Germany).

The Nation State Law night sound bad on paper but I think it has minimal actual effect. SC ruling in Kaadan already established that the Jewish element trumps equality only in regards of immigrations, “once inside the house we are all equal, it’s only the key to the house where lies the difference”.

The problem here is not of definitions but of ambitions, as both (well large parts of) both national movement demand self determination across the entire territory the conflict arise and then escalated to aggressive steps to solidify power like the disenfranchisement or the discrimination in land laws against Arabs.

But that is a debate about concrete facts, not of conflicting conceptual schemata

The right of return in Germany may well be related to the post-war context, with millions of Germans fleeing former eastern territories and Central European countries. The question to determine whether Germany is an 'ethnic democracy' (I tell you that concept sounds horrible, due to its historical impications) is not the right of return. Does German Basic Law define Germany as ''The Nation of German People'', in the same fashion as Israel with the Jewish people?

With regard to the ethnic character of Central European nations ,-that is more accentuated with regard to Western democracies- and the protection of minorities, Hungary is an imlustrative example of illiberal government mistreating the non-Hungarians. Orban's regime might be, in a sense, a mirror for the 'ethnic democracy' envisioned by the Israeli right (and more centrist emements as well)

The Nation State Law enshrines the notion that Israel is not a state for all its citizens, but only the state for its Jewish majority (excluding disrnfranchised Palestinians, of course). The second-class condition of the official Arab minority is consecrated. Such legiation inspired by 'ethnic democratic' principles is radically illiberal and undemocratic. There is a difference between the majority rule and the tyranny of the majority that you are missing. Ethno-nationalism and liberal democracy are not really compatible

This is all a discussion about declarations and semantics, but as hnv said, the vision of Jewish and democratic is that the keys favour Jews, but everyone inside the house should have equal rights. If you're comfortable with Germany having a right of return for Germans in a post war context, it's insane to say the Jews don't have an even better reason to have a right to return or immigrate to their country.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It's looks more and more likely that Yamina, or at least Bennet and Shaked, will be in opposition, and that Litzman will be replaced by soneone from Hosen. Niesenkorn may get Justice instead of Troper.

These are all wonderful developments. It's not like Bibi even wants Yamina in government so I wish Gantz would push for Education instead of Foreign ministry. What the settlers have done to the educational system is a moral crime.

Its also been agreed, I believe, that Edlestein will not return to the Speaker's seat. I guess we might see Erdan or something there. It's surprisingly not terrible so far, but we'll see.