PA-SEN (Suffolk/USA Today): Fetterman +9

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Surprised Mastriano is even overperforming Oz.

I don't think GOP is gonna win this or Fetterman's health really would have to be very worrying for that. This is at least Lean D and closer to likely than toss-up.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Lol it's a lead outside the margin of error

Technically election day is in november, this is a poll in june. In five months time, a lot can happen. It would be an error if election day was today and Oz won. This is still a swing state, R midterm or not, and candidate quality matters.

But i also feel that people overestimate the environment and also corrections because it is a R environment or a midterm during a D presidency. This is still a swing state, R midterm or not, and candidate quality matters.

I'm comfortable in this poll because Mastriano overperforms Oz by quite a lot (also Suffolk/USA Today poll)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=505343.0

46-37 compared to 44-40.

And political pundits/experts also said Mastriano was too radical for Pennsylvania, but if Oz clearly has a lower percentage while the other candidate has a larger candidate, than it doesn't bode well for Oz and he at least has a lot of work to do if they want to win this election.

Fetterman definitely starts with an edge.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also interesting to compare demographics.

Males: Mastriano 46, Shapiro 39
Females: Shapiro 50, Mastriano 34
Democrats: Shapiro 82, Mastriano 5
Republicans: Mastriano 83, Shapiro 8
Independents: Shapiro 37, Mastriano 32
18-34: Shapiro 60, Mastriano 21
35-44: Mastriano 45, Shapiro 38
45-54: Mastriano 52, Shapiro 35
55-64: Mastriano 42, Shapiro 40
65+: Shapiro 47, Mastriano 41
Whites: Mastriano 45, Shapiro 42
Blacks: Shapiro 68, Mastriano 5
Hispanic: Mastriano 41, Shapiro 38
Certain to vote: Shapiro 46, Mastriano 40

Males: Oz 46, Fetterman 41
Females: Fetterman 52, Oz 29
Democrats: Fetterman 82, Oz 6
Republicans: Oz 76, Fetterman 10
Independents: Fetterman 44, Oz 24
18-34: Fetterman 60, Oz 21
35-44: Fetterman 43, Oz 31
45-54: Oz 52, Fetterman 37
55-64: Fetterman 42, Oz 40
65+: Fetterman: 48, Oz 38
Whites: Fetterman 43, Oz 42
Blacks: Fetterman 71, Oz 6
Hispanic: Fetterman 41, Oz 41
Certain to vote: Fetterman 48, Oz 38

Fetterman wins women by more, while also more women seem to be undecided. Mastriano indeed consolidates Republicans more at this point than Oz (divisive primary is a reason for that). And Fetterman does a lot better among independents than Shapiro does (and Oz worse than Mastriano).

Fetterman wins 35-44 while Mastriano does. (fetterman wins by 12, mastriano wins by 7). Fetterman also does slightly better among 55-64

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think people are overcautious. This will be like OH 2018 senate election, maybe Fetterman +6/+7 at the end.