PA-SEN (Suffolk/USA Today): Fetterman +9

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman (D) 46%
Oz (R) 37%
Gerhardt (L) 1%
Weis (G) 1%
Magee (I) 1%
Stern (I) 1%
Undecided 13%

--

Males: Oz 46, Fetterman 41
Females: Fetterman 52, Oz 29
Democrats: Fetterman 82, Oz 6
Republicans: Oz 76, Fetterman 10
Independents: Fetterman 44, Oz 24
18-34: Fetterman 60, Oz 21
35-44: Fetterman 43, Oz 31
45-54: Oz 52, Fetterman 37
55-64: Fetterman 42, Oz 40
65+: Fetterman: 48, Oz 38
Whites: Fetterman 43, Oz 42
Blacks: Fetterman 71, Oz 6
Hispanic: Fetterman 41, Oz 41
Certain to vote: Fetterman 48, Oz 38

(*note - sample sizes for Blacks/Hispanics are extremely low)

--

Favorability:
John Fetterman: 45/27 (+18)
Mehmet Oz: 28/50 (-22)

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2022/6_15_2022_pennsylvania_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=51EA954730804089EB27952F754E4C83EEA6A799

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news now we can stop fretting about D's losing PA all the Rs thought that Oz was superhuman he along with Johnson have a 37% Approvals

I knew when Suffolk had Ryan leading 44/41 Oz was in trouble now we lead in NC that's 4 seats WI, PA, OH, NC and GA is going to a Runoff and we are tied or leading in AZ, NV, NH

We still have FL Crist is leading in 1 poll, MO and IA and the Change poll had Franken only 3 and D's are down only 6 in MO ti Greitans

[Person Man]

If this is part of the pattern of Republicans, despite being unpopular, are still getting elected, this will eventually bode well for Democrats.

[Politician]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Lol it's a lead outside the margin of error

[wbrocks67]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Obviously Fetterman isn't going to win by 9, there is 13% undecided and Rs will consolidate around Oz more than they are right now.

But there is severe warning signs for Oz that you can't just wash away. His favorability rating is abysmal, especially with Independents.

[Politician]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Obviously Fetterman isn't going to win by 9, there is 13% undecided and Rs will consolidate around Oz more than they are right now.

But there is severe warning signs for Oz that you can't just wash away. His favorability rating is abysmal, especially with Independents.

Oz could certainly lose, but I'm not buying that he's this unpopular or Fetterman is this popular. Remember, polls in this part of the country always overestimate Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Obviously Fetterman isn't going to win by 9, there is 13% undecided and Rs will consolidate around Oz more than they are right now.

But there is severe warning signs for Oz that you can't just wash away. His favorability rating is abysmal, especially with Independents.

Oz could certainly lose, but I'm not buying that he's this unpopular or Fetterman is this popular. Remember, polls in this part of the country always overestimate Democrats.

Not by this much though.

The rest of the poll checks out - the registration edge is D+4, Biden's approval is 39/54, which makes sense given the environment, also lines up with the GA poll approval being about the same as well.

Not sure how he you couldn't believe Oz is this unpopular. He's been attacked since January over the airwaves, and nearly every poll has shown his favorability is awful, even among Rs.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Numbers amongst females, whites and his own favorables are strikingly bad for Oz.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm starting to think that unless Republicans manage to win a fillibuster proof majority, Pennsylvania will flip no matter what. Dr. Oz is really that bad a candidate.

[Sir Mohamed]

That's encouraging, but I better don't get my hopes up here. If polling didn't suck that much in previous cycles, I'd more confident. It's very possible the undecideds will swing R in the end as Fetterman is not near 50%.

That said, I have a feeling polling will be off again, perhaps by more than 2020, and underestimate GOP support yet again.

Tossup -> Tossup

[Yoda]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

What will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November is all the dooming about this race since the day Oz announced, even from a lot of dems on here. I never understood what made people think he was some kind of strong candidate whose race it was to lose, and I still don't. He's a  carpetbagging trump turd with the charisma of a doorknob. He voted in Turkey not 4 years ago and he rails against illegal alien employment while the family business set a record fine for illegally employing illegal aliens. Plus he just looks f****** weird as hell.

[Yoda]

On a related note, republicans sure do seem to have a special knack for picking the absolute worst Senate candidates this cycle. Coupled with the bombshell revelation yesterday that Herschel Walker has a 10yo son he doesn't see (after lamenting 'absent black fathers' constantly in his barely understandable ramblings), this might be the best 24 hour period for the DSCC this cycle since Sununu decided against running.

[Sir Mohamed]

On a related note, republicans sure do seem to have a special knack for picking the absolute worst Senate candidates this cycle. Coupled with the bombshell revelation yesterday that Herschel Walker has a 10yo son he doesn't see (after lamenting 'absent black fathers' constantly in his barely understandable ramblings), this might be the best 24 hour period for the DSCC this cycle since Sununu decided against running.

Yup, they already blew winnable senate races in 2018 by nominating terrible candidates. AL-2017 was also a  lost (should have listened to Trump actually, lol). Appointing Martha McSally after she was already rejected was also hilariously inept from a political standpoint.

[Bismarck]

Fetterman is a great candidate and Oz is a terrible one. D+1

[GALeftist]

Cards on the table, I don't believe that this will be close to the final result, obviously. I suspect a number of the Republicans who disapproved of Oz (for whatever reason) will ultimately bite the bullet and vote for him. This race is still Tilt R for me. With that being said:

[Lief 🗽]

54-46 for Oz in November looks about right.

[Sir Mohamed]

54-46 for Oz in November looks about right.

Ugh, this is a bit of an overstatement I guess. Not sure even SnowLabrador thinks this will be a 8 pt. loss.

[wesmoorenerd]

54-46 for Oz in November looks about right.

this joke is old

[SnowLabrador]

Color me skeptical. Remember the Greenfield +12 poll?

[Xing]

There's definitely no way this happens (and I think Fetterman will probably get at least 47%), though this remains the one seat I think Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping, even if it's still a stretch in this environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's definitely no way this happens (and I think Fetterman will probably get at least 47%), though this remains the one seat I think Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping, even if it's still a stretch in this environment.

Lol your R nut map ain't happening, you and Icespear and Elections Guy said Bevin, not Beshear was gonna win LOL

Fetterman is at 47% and OZ is stuck in the mid 30 ish

[Minnesota Mike]

But red wave and DR Oz was on TV.....

One poll, it's early, yada yada yada. It's funny how the perception of a race can change when we actually have some polling.

[WD]

The polling industry is a joke. Insane that anyone pays attention to this stuff still.

[riceowl]

that oz unfavorable number is somethin