PA-GOV (Suffolk/USA Today): Shapiro +4

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro (D) 44%
Mastriano (R) 40%
DiGuilio (G) 1%
Hackenburg (L) 1%
Soloski (K) <1%
Undecided 13%

--

Males: Mastriano 46, Shapiro 39
Females: Shapiro 50, Mastriano 34
Democrats: Shapiro 82, Mastriano 5
Republicans: Mastriano 83, Shapiro 8
Independents: Shapiro 37, Mastriano 32
18-34: Shapiro 60, Mastriano 21
35-44: Mastriano 45, Shapiro 38
45-54: Mastriano 52, Shapiro 35
55-64: Mastriano 42, Shapiro 40
65+: Shapiro 47, Mastriano 41
Whites: Mastriano 45, Shapiro 42
Blacks: Shapiro 68, Mastriano 5
Hispanic: Mastriano 41, Shapiro 38
Certain to vote: Shapiro 46, Mastriano 40

(*note - sample sizes for Blacks/Hispanics extremely low)

--

Favorabiities:
Josh Shapiro: 45/28 (+17)
Doug Mastriano: 36/37 (-1)

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2022/6_15_2022_pennsylvania_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=51EA954730804089EB27952F754E4C83EEA6A799

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll, Mastriano isn't getting elected trying to overturn an election in favor of Trump

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano doing slightly better than Oz in the senate race mostly due to R consolidation, but even as of right now, it appears that Independents dislike Oz much more than Mastriano even.

Theoretically makes sense because Oz has been attacked over the air for months now, while people are just finding out now about Mastriano's history.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

This one's going to be fun.

[Lief 🗽]

The popular incumbent AG with bipartisan appeal is in a statistical tie with the extreme right insurrectionist? Disastrous poll. And if we lose here, then Pennsylvania (and with it, getting to 270) is Safe R in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Too many undecided. Tilt/Lean D until proven otherwise.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The white/hispanic numbers are something

[wbrocks67]

The popular incumbent AG with bipartisan appeal is in a statistical tie with the extreme right insurrectionist? Disastrous poll. And if we lose here, then Pennsylvania (and with it, getting to 270) is Safe R in 2024.

I mean, I wouldn't expect Shapiro to win by anything more than this. If he does win, it will still only be a few points at best.

[wbrocks67]

The white/hispanic numbers are something

that's why I put the caveat - the Hispanic sample is literally like 34 people or something.

But the White #s, with a way bigger sample, are more interesting. Even Wolf only won Whites by 3% in 2018. So a lot of those undecideds will likely skew R, but Mastriano only being up 3% with nearly 90% decided isn't a great prospect for him.

[Duke of York]

The popular incumbent AG with bipartisan appeal is in a statistical tie with the extreme right insurrectionist? Disastrous poll. And if we lose here, then Pennsylvania (and with it, getting to 270) is Safe R in 2024.

way to early to make that assessment.

[Lief 🗽]

The popular incumbent AG with bipartisan appeal is in a statistical tie with the extreme right insurrectionist? Disastrous poll. And if we lose here, then Pennsylvania (and with it, getting to 270) is Safe R in 2024.

way to early to make that assessment.

I don’t think so. The core of Mastriano’s candidacy is ending democracy in Pennsylvania. He’s not going to let a Democrat win the state if he’s in charge.

[S019]

Shapiro at 44% is very concerning with him having run two statewide campaigns and having had a chance to introduce himself to the voters while Republicans were distracted with their primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tossup

[Podgy the Bear]

The popular incumbent AG with bipartisan appeal is in a statistical tie with the extreme right insurrectionist? Disastrous poll. And if we lose here, then Pennsylvania (and with it, getting to 270) is Safe R in 2024.

Then what's your explanation about the same poll showing Fetterman +9?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users are looking solely at Biden Approvaks and think it's gonna be a WIPEOUT

[wbrocks67]

The popular incumbent AG with bipartisan appeal is in a statistical tie with the extreme right insurrectionist? Disastrous poll. And if we lose here, then Pennsylvania (and with it, getting to 270) is Safe R in 2024.

Then what's your explanation about the same poll showing Fetterman +9?

Mastriano has consolidated the Rs. Oz hasn't.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro at 44% is very concerning with him having run two statewide campaigns and having had a chance to introduce himself to the voters while Republicans were distracted with their primary.

Eh, I mean this also has Mastriano leading among Latinos due to the small sample size, so given that, Shapiro +4 in that environment is a good number for him. If Shapiro were up, say, at least 20 with Latinos (which would likely be higher given the PA #s in recent years for that demo), he'd be up by like 6,7,8 points.