BG-33 / Lechasseur very easily. But I don't dislike S019 or Forumlurker.
This could be the map.
TX, NC, NH, RI and NM would be very narrow I believe.
Actually this could exarcebate trends. It's trends on steroids, exc. for perhaps some deep south state and the noteworthy exception(s) of Colorado and perhaps Alaska too.
Because it would speed up all the trends in this re-aligning elections, but it would also move hispanics more rapidly to the AWP column (which is also a trend that exists in real-life), the only trend that isn't visible now but could as well happen is that libertarian-minded (esp. on social issues) will move slightly towards the NLP party, but that might also be more of a regional effect, since they seem to be maxed out in the Great Plains states, Mountain West region.
The map itself stays quite similar to the one of now, exc. for some small upsets (Utah and Colorado), but the invisible (although visible shadings) proof that something is bound to happen, but it wouldn't result in big switches in terms of EV distribution.
It's possible i'm wrong about CO and NM... though, although I believe NM will be a bit more leaning towards BG-33 and Lechasseur than CO, because CO certainly has some social liberal types and is also a state where I believe the working class is a bit smaller. I see it as quite a progressive state, and it's possible CO would actually vote S019 here.
Almost certain NLP would be the party most Democrats support and AWP the party most Republicans (esp. Trump supporting factions) support, but people like Romney will switch to NLP (he'll certainly be done with what is left of the GOP), while people like Tulsi Gabbard will strongly side with AWP.
I'm not sure what Bernie, AOC and typical Berniecrats will do. It will "depend" on the message of the AWP. I think because it will mainly be associated with the remnants of the GOP that they still will continue to affiliate with NLP. However I do believe there will be people that make the switch, but i'm not sure if they would high-profile candidates, because there would have to pass at least some time, but this would pull the trigger for someone like Joe Manchin to switch sides, certainly. I think he would be the best known candidate to make the switch. Same for Tulsi Gabbard, all non woke lefty types. Brown, Fetterman and Sanders will probably stay within NLP unless a high profile candidate makes the switch, than there could be some exodus, and that would also pull more heavy weight to the AWP which will than have a bigger chance of winning, but it might also lead to more Republicans leaving what is left of their party.
Of course, would never happen in RL because the AWP would be too much associated with GOP-tactics and image.
But if it was a indeed a much more Bernie-like party but with more social conservatism, and get the support of Bernie, than it might flip CO, NM, RI and VT. If Bernie doesn't back that (which is more likely), than those three probably won't flip, giving the election to authoritarian liberal S019.
Although more likelier is that Bernie just doesn't endorse anyone.
Thing is... it depends heavily on the campaign.
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