Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Mike88]

First UC votes are in, Provoste winning handily but no real data on turnout (although anecdotal reports say it’s anemic).

She's basically winning everywhere, it seems.

[Mike88]

Provoste is really polling very badly. Kast is very close to her numbers.

[Mike88]

Countdown to Enriquez-O. dropping out commencing now… Wonder how much of his vote will actually switch to SRA YASNA.

I doubt Ominami is actually going to drop out. In the end it will be hard for him to reach 4% though.

Provoste is really polling very badly. Kast is very close to her numbers.

Kast voters are very likely to be overrepresented in online panels. Kast at around 10% seems right but it will not go up significantly when undecided make up their minds. He has a hard ceiling of 13-15% of open Pinochetists

Right, but the issue is if Provoste continues polling badly and her voters decide to vote tacitly in Boric. That could make Kast surpass her. But, it's still very early. A lot of water will still pass under the bridge.

Ominami seems like a very vain politician, with an ego the size of Jupiter.

Also, CADEM, yay. After the forced dropouts:

Boric 20%
Sichel 20%
Provoste 13%
Kast 10%
Parisi 7%
Ominami 3%
Artés 1%

Basically identical results compared with the UDD poll.

[Mike88]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1445400471431176220

[Mike88]

October 5th used to be an important day for the old Concertación, they used to have acts every year with all their presidents. Since a few years ago I think they haven't done anything. Everything related to the transition is nowadays seen in a much more negative light, which I think is sad to some extent. Lot of people worked hard for the NO victory and their struggle shouldn't be forgotten, even if the very same people nowadays said that "La Alegría nunca llegó" (the happiness never came, a reference to the famous No jingle)

Why is it seen badly now? The Chilean transition, in my opinion, was a very good one and very orderly, like the Spanish one. I have to disagree with those who say that the "Alegria nunca llégo", because Chile, despite its current problems and because every single country has its own issues, is still one of the richest countries in South America, has a very good standard of living and strong institutions. Many countries in Central and South America would dream to be like Chile, IMO.

[Mike88]

October 5th used to be an important day for the old Concertación, they used to have acts every year with all their presidents. Since a few years ago I think they haven't done anything. Everything related to the transition is nowadays seen in a much more negative light, which I think is sad to some extent. Lot of people worked hard for the NO victory and their struggle shouldn't be forgotten, even if the very same people nowadays said that "La Alegría nunca llegó" (the happiness never came, a reference to the famous No jingle)

Why is it seen badly now? The Chilean transition, in my opinion, was a very good one and very orderly, like the Spanish one. I have to disagree with those who say that the "Alegria nunca llégo", because Chile, despite its current problems and because every single country has its own issues, is still one of the richest countries in South America, has a very good standard of living and strong institutions. Many countries in Central and South America would dream to be like Chile, IMO.

I think you’re underestimating a lot the inequality in Chile. It’s no different than any other of its neighbors and the neoliberal policies can make the effects (for the poor at least) be felt even harsher. It’s something visible in Chile and the misery is not just on inequality numbers, it’s actually very visible if you get to know all of Chile.

Actually, Argentina and Uruguay have less inequality than Chile. Peru and Bolivia are more equal too, even if they’re poorer. When you have drastic differences between the rich and the poor, it creates the question where the money actually is and who is really seeing the effects of that wealth and for who those are just bedtime stories.

Brazil’s problem for example, I don’t see it as having to be richer, we’re biggest economy in the continent and at least before the evil devil got into power, we had the biggest proportional growth in LatAm since 1960. However, we have the most wealth gap than any other South American country (even more than Chile!) because we also have the most diverse population and our elites are just as aristocratic-oriented and will attempt to exclude a larger swath of the population from being included as citizens, as active participants on the economy.

And that directly impacts the effects on the potential of the economy. There’s no way to have sustainable and structural growth if people are actively working to exclude a large part of the population from the economy. That’s what I feel like it happens in Brazil (which has the biggest population with African descent in the Americas, who are also most excluded from economy) and Chile (neoliberal policies implemented by Pinochet have natural effect of working to favor in amplifying the gap between the richer segments from the poorer).

This is why places like Brazil are the absolute worst place to apply Chile-like policies btw. Latin America in general, but especially a diverse place like Brazil. Neoliberalism is policy to have when you’re already rich and have very low inequality, like in Europe or something. And even then it will come with some negative side effects.

The way people talk about economy is very incorrect because they act like data necessarily translates into better quality of life for all. You have to take into account how that is redistributed to society as a whole, which segments really benefit from it and who doesn’t, who sustains these gains without seeing the benefits, etc.

Like I said in my post, every country has it is issues. Yes, Chile is a very unequal country, but so is my country for example, and this is not a discussion about neo-liberal policies or other kind of policies, this is a discussion about why, like kaoras said, people think badly about the transition to democracy in the late 80's. Despite all the flaws that Chile has, it is still a very stable country. I mean, since 1989 just look what happened in Brazil, in Argentina, in Peru, in Venezuela, in Columbia and so on. I know that every country that has had a transition to democracy has debates and issues about what happened, my country, again f.e., has huge discussions about the events that followed 1974, but we have to look at the pluses and minuses. The Chile transition was a successful one, IMO, because everything could have gone wrong: Pinochet could have refused defeat, become even more dictatorial, divide the country and make things even worse. But, from what I've read on that transition, the strong civil society and other agents of the country, from businesses to even the army, said Enough and that it was time to change without chaos. The point of my post was this.

[Mike88]

Well, for one I don't think you can compare the kind of inequality that exist in Portugal with the one in Chile. For example, do a street view of a random street in Antofagasta or Calama. There's a high chance it will look like this:

There are some Lisbon suburbs that are quite problematic, Cova da Moura and Jamaica, for example. (Cova da Moura image from Público newspaper, and Jamaica image from RTP)

But, the "barracas" problems were overall resolved in the 90's with the then PSD government plan of demolishing these kind of neighborhoods and give residents betters houses. Former Lisbon mayor Jorge Sampaio (PS), also was involved in this plan. However, a few still remain and public housing is often criticized for being quite poor and lacking basic quality.

I understand what you say. There are similarities between the transitions on Chile and Spain, as some of the "wounds" of the past are still present. Even in my country, what we got in the 1976 constitution, we spent the next 10 years changing it because it wasn't what the country actually wanted in a democracy (sorry for talking again about Portugal). The TV stuff harass is just stupid, I mean, it's history and we should learn from it. About the health service, is it by insurance?

[Mike88]

There are some Lisbon suburbs that are quite problematic, Cova da Moura and Jamaica, for example. (Cova da Moura image from Público newspaper, and Jamaica image from RTP)

These poor neighborhoods is something almost every place has. There’s way more inequality in Chile than just that photo kaoras posted.

Indeed, like I said in my post, that problem is almost resolved, it was done in the 90's, but housing, and more specifically, the quality of housing in Portugal is quite poor as houses have very low energy efficiency. As an architect, I'm faced with this problem almost daily.

Now, enough of Portugal. (there is the Portuguese thread for that)

The equality numbers are surprising as I thought that Chile was higher. Uruguay I already knew, but Argentina, I was surprised because of the big debt and financial issues Argentina has had.

Yes, the health system is by insurance. You are either affiliated to public insurance FONASA or to a private one (ISAPRE). Honestly both are trash,like, my family could afford to pay for ISAPRE but it doesn't really give you any significant beneffit. FONASA also has 4 tiers depending on your income, each with a different fixed % of copay which with expensive treatments can bankrupt you. Only some illnesses and treatments are guaranteed to be free (those covered by a thing called AUGE), but some of them have long waiting lists. Public Hospitals, despite being state-run, still charge you money by the way. The thing is, if you have money, you can afford the private clinics that have lower waiting times and not literally die waiting for attention in the public system.

I see. But there aren't any smaller insurance companies that compete with ISAPRE or AUGE? It's a monopoly then? In a public hospital, you are charge a fee, normal, but by your description it seems expensive and with no exemptions, right?

[Mike88]

Polling seems to be all over the place: Boric falling or growing; Sichel growing or stagnant; Parisi closing on Boric or stagnant; Kast falling or stagnant; and MEO closing in on Provoste.

My hunch is that they may be all wrong. (And Chilean polls have quite a bad rep).

[Mike88]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

I assume that with this uncertainty over the election result, turnout will be crucial. The ongoing divisions on the left, with the Constitutional Assembly problems, could demobilize the leftwing voter base and, at the same time, energize the rightwing base. But, the left could also be motivated to show up to vote in order to block Kast. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain).

Huh, TIL Chile is only 4 hours away from Europe. It's less of a distance than the most Eastern parts of Atlantic Canada, despite being on the Pacific side. Weird.

In my country, the difference is even less, just 3 hours difference. I believe this is because of Daylight saving time, as Chile is now almost in the Summer season and Europe is almost in winter.

[Mike88]

I recall kaoras saying that the first results normally hold on until the end. So, a Kast vs Boric runoff it is.

[Mike88]

With the complete collapse of the former Chile Vamos and the former Concertación, I'm now really curious on what the Congress results will be like. No results yet.

[Mike88]

Anyway, Sichel is speaking now.

Sichel says he will not vote for Boric. Will "talk" with Kast about his vote.

[Mike88]

So far these results seem pretty close to pre-election polls right?

Yep, which is a bit surprising as polls in Chile have a tendency to fail.

Also, someone on TV13 said that the final turnout could be around 6,7 million, 45% turnout. Quite low.

[Mike88]

Sichel seems to be on the verge of surpassing Provoste.

[Mike88]

Love Chilean campaign songs:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1468706068226363398

And this clip from the Kast family is so cringe:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1468706642401370119

Kast's face is hilarious. He's like thinking "They're all horrible" xD xD

[Mike88]

Okay, first of all, leaked Polls:

CADEM: Boric 39 (-1), Kast 36 (+1)
Atlas Intel: Kast 40.9 - Boric 39.1
I've seen a conflicting reports on Atlas Intel "tracking", I've not been able to determinate if it is real or not

So there was movement against Boric last week. It seems that the debate today will be decisive.
On other hand, the highlight of the ARCHI one was that Kast accused Boric of sexual abuse. This was the harassment claim of the first round / primary. The woman in question said that Boric had apologized for his "actitudes machistas", said she was voting for him and called Kast to stop using her.

In other news, Bachelet is in Chile and everyone is making that huge deal. Kast even asked to have a meeting with her. That's hilarious. I honestly don't know why Kast seem so worried about her, she isn't THAT popular

Yeah, I had that thought to. I recall she ending her term with a pretty big disapproval rating, however, not that high compared with Piñera. Maybe Kast wants to look "presidential", in a way like he's talking to a UN official, or something.

Polls, or rather leaked polls, seem to show a big tightening of the race. Kaoras, how do you sense the mood in both camps?

[Mike88]

Live feeds of the coverage:

Meganoticias

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmVw5rhfipo

T13

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ove87nZ_1D4

24 horas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMIJ4ae3io4

[Mike88]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

So the administration is basically all in for Kast?

Yes, is beyond disgusting. I just cannot express how angry I'm right now.

The biggest myth of Chilean politics is that there exist a democratic right, they are all the same.

Is this affecting turnout in a big way? I mean, polls close in 3 and half hours, right?

[Mike88]

In Chile you don't vote in your nearest precinct, they send you randomly to some place within your comuna (I literally have to cross all my city to vote despite having a precinct at 5 minutes walking distance), that's why it could depress turnout. Besides the high temperatures in Santiago make walking long distances hard.

Opposition mayors in Santiago are mobilizing municipal buses right now, but Puente Alto has a rightist mayor and hasn't done anything. Puente Alto is the comuna with more voters of the country.

Right, that's a bit weird, because it could cause confusion. Local governments should provide transportation to those voters who don't have means to reach a polling station, elderly and disable people especially. Here it's what happens, however there's always the accusation that the people driving those buses, or helping in it, say to these voters "look vote in the hand symbol or in the one with the arrows", but, whatever.

[Mike88]

All the networks are covering how it's 40° at some polling places. Why do some countries have elections in the middle of summer/winter!

No one can predict how the weather will be on election day when calling an election. According to Ventusky, last weekend, for example, temperatures were quite mild, around 20º C across Chile.

[Mike88]

All the networks are covering how it's 40° at some polling places. Why do some countries have elections in the middle of summer/winter!

No one can predict how the weather will be on election day when calling an election. According to Ventusky, last weekend, for example, temperatures were quite mild, around 20º C across Chile.

Something in May or September would probably just be safer to bet on. Just complaining into the void over here though of course

Yeah, I understand, no worries. But weather, and especially nowadays, is very unpredictable. I have seen election days in the winter with very mild and plesent temperatures, and elections in June/late September with massive rain pours and chilly temperatures.

[Mike88]

If I recall correctly, on the 1st round, Kast had a big lead over Boric in the first returns. If it's like this now, it's basically over, yep.

Also, it will be the first time that the 2nd placed in the 1st round, wins in the 2nd round in Chile, right?