Do you buy that Georgia is gone for Biden?

[GAinDC]

I'm hearing this sentiment more and more on the forum.


For those who think it is gone for Biden, how and why do you think Trump will win it back?

For those who don't think it's gone for Biden, how do you explain all the current polling placing Trump comfortably ahead there?

[GAinDC]

To the contrary, it's gone for Trump

Bold!! why?

[GAinDC]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

[GAinDC]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

I think there’s a chance he might be able to replicate Kemp’s 2018 margin.

That would require Trump gaining ground in several large, urban/suburban counties that swung heavily away from the Republicans beginning in 2016. Not sure how he reverses that trend when he is the reason for the trend!

[GAinDC]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Black vote is definitely shifting right but as I stated in another thread this is less likely to have an impact in Georgia, as the Black voters who will move towards Trump the most are urban or rural, and working class. Georgia is filled to the brim with middle to upper middle class suburban Black communities, not to mention a much larger than average level of white people with a college degree. College whites are going to swing towards Biden more than any other group.

Michigan and Wisconsin will be a bigger problem for Biden.

Why would these Black voters suddenly shift to Trump this time around? Frankly, all of the reasons I’ve heard rely on some pretty nasty stereotypes about Black people.

[GAinDC]

I don't get the argument that blacks in Georgia will swing right. Why would they give up that much power? The black community in Georgia is probably the most powerful in the nation. They gave Democrats the White House and Senate. Unlike other states, they did it without being an alliance with labor unions (MI/PA) or liberal whites (VA). It was just the black community, urban and rural.

Nobody actually thinks that if blacks in Georgia swing right a few points Republicans will start campaigning for the black vote.

That’s a great point! Although Dems in GA still need white voters and other groups to win, Black voters are the base of the party more so in GA than in any other competitive state.