Do you buy that Georgia is gone for Biden?

[GAinDC]

I'm hearing this sentiment more and more on the forum.


For those who think it is gone for Biden, how and why do you think Trump will win it back?

For those who don't think it's gone for Biden, how do you explain all the current polling placing Trump comfortably ahead there?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden clearly doesn’t believe this with he is putting into the state

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No there was a poll that showed Biden within three, not buying MC that has RFK name on ballot and Trump leads by 8 either

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Basically this. Many polls show Trump getting unrealistically high shares of the black vote (like 30%) or Biden getting an unrealistically low share (like 60%). Given blacks can make up around 30% of the GA electorate in Pres years, this sort of polling error is substantial.

One thing I will note is that in 2020, GA was basically the only remotely competitive swing state where Biden matched/outran polling. Polling errors don't hold constant across cycles, but I think struggling to capture how D-leaning GA blacks are is the culprit.

[Bismarck]

No. It will be very close.

[Pres Mike]

No. Warnock won re-election in a red year

[Horus]

Not at all.

[BlueSwan]

"Gone" might be a tad aggressive, but I do believe that the focus should be on PA/MI/WI. If Biden wins GA he has probably already won those aforementioned states. The trends of recent elections does not appear to continue this election.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's certainly not "gone", but I would expect it to be the first state to flip back to Trump.

[Yellowhammer]

To the contrary, it's gone for Trump

[GAinDC]

To the contrary, it's gone for Trump

Bold!! why?

[Yellowhammer]

To the contrary, it's gone for Trump

Bold!! why?

Demographic change

[mileslunn]

Most showing Trump ahead are same polls showing Trump with over 20% of Black vote which won't happen.  Amongst whites Georgia has not changed and is still a 70/30 split for Trump.  Now yes if Trump gains a bit from Blacks retakes it but only barely and not sure I buy the idea of him gaining many Black voters.  GOP often underperforms polls there.

[heatcharger]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Unless I see concrete evidence these are real shifts and not a systemic polling issue, I’m not inclined to believe any poll that shows Trump getting 20%+ of the black vote.

[Vern]

No, but I do believe he will have to win by a larger PV% to carry it again.

[Yelnoc]

No, but I do think the move towards Trump in the polls is happening (contrary to my expectations last year). I am very curious as to why this is happening. My intuition tells me there may something to theory that black men under 40 are moving to Trump, though I would like to see polls of Georgia with larger sample sizes and more reliable crosstabs.

I'm not yet prepared to say Georgia is gone for Biden, but if that theory is true, it very well might be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are the same bias polls that told us a red wave and Warnock was DOa in 22 right, as I said polls aren't end all be all ever since the primary these polls have had a Trump bias in them

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

[GAinDC]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

[Tekken_Guy]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

I think there’s a chance he might be able to replicate Kemp’s 2018 margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Absolutely not.

[GAinDC]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

I think there’s a chance he might be able to replicate Kemp’s 2018 margin.

That would require Trump gaining ground in several large, urban/suburban counties that swung heavily away from the Republicans beginning in 2016. Not sure how he reverses that trend when he is the reason for the trend!

[President Johnson]

Of course not.