OH-9 megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

Yes especially if they do. A Redistriting amendment would benefit the East and hurt marcy, you couldnt create a district that is compact and pro dem for her, and a close race would include wood which brings latta into the mix, as much as folks talk about marcy the latta name is way stronger, she loses to bob. Easy

Erie County stays and the more Republican rural western counties get chopped under a fair map.  This is Republican wish-casting.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Really a testament to the strength of the GOP bench in this district that the last-minute, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency candidate is the failed State House Speaker nominee who got rolled by his own party.

I mean, I don’t know that the GOP bench here can be that strong when they nominated Majewski last time, saw the establishment’s preferred candidate implode right before the filing deadline, and are currently - barring unforeseen drop outs - on track to nominate Majewski a second time in a row given that the anti-Majewski vote is on track to split three ways in the primary. 

Also, the fact that Merrin lost the Speaker race b/c of how many of his colleagues decided they’d rather team up with Democrats to elect someone else than tolerate him as Speaker doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in Merrin’s political chops nor in his ability to unite Republicans. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Really a testament to the strength of the GOP bench in this district that the last-minute, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency candidate is the failed State House Speaker nominee who got rolled by his own party.

I don’t think we can praise the strength of the GOP bench too much when they nominated Majewski last time, saw the establishment’s preferred candidate implode right before the filing deadline, and are currently - barring unforeseen drop outs - on track to nominate Majewski a second time in a row given that the anti-Majewski vote is on track to split three ways in the primary.

I hope my post isn't being misunderstood as praise for the GOP bench here!

Oh, I thought you were praising their bench, my bad!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Surprised it wasn't mentioned here that after backtracking on dropping out, Majewski back-backtracked and actually di it today.

Too bad