IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

The Iowa Poll will almost certainly rebuke all those crappy Polls from PPP and their leftist cohorts!

You hope

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean, even if Ernst wins by Kim Reynolds' margin or so (which I’d say is more likely than not, although not a foregone conclusion), people admittedly had a point about her not being an extremely strong candidate who would substantially outperform Trump or whatever. Even if she’s not weak enough to underperform Trump by more than 1-2 points or so, she’s certainly lucky that IA really started shifting to the right when she first ran statewide.

It’s probably a little like MI-SEN, where Peters' individual strengths as a candidate may have been overhyped and he owes his lead mostly to the national environment and Biden's lead in the state. Maybe motorcycle retail politicking is overrated, after all.

Re: retailpolitiking: I think that part is more that Ernst is bad at retail politicking and Beyonce Biden happened to be even worse

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How did Ernst piss away such an easy reelection?

Ernst has always been a weak candidate, but this time she had to run in a non-GOP wave year against someone other than Baroque Balderdash. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

Hence my signature. This is why the "check on Biden" talking point (even when it's made with positive intentions) is potentially so dangerous for Democrats. Things aren't going to get any better if Republicans keep the Senate, no matter how much Biden wins by.

Quite frankly, any Republicans who subscribes to this mentality ought to be satisfied enough that there is going to be a 6-3 conservative majority on the Superme Court to "hold Biden in check."

The level of satisfaction for Republicans regarding the Court as a means to check Biden iis mitigated by the realization that with a Trifecta, they can pack the court. The Senate thus acts as buffer to prevent that.

A 6-3 court could just find the packing unconstitutional if they wanted.

Not if the new justices participated in the vote (why would they recuse themselves?) and even then, they’d have no way to enforce the ruling.  Once we have four more Justices and a 7-6 majority, said ruling could simply be overturned.