2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[AndyHogan14]

NYT just called Michigan.

[AndyHogan14]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

It is far too close for comfort, but when I look at all the races that have been called and add the ones where Dems are leading, they have 221 seats. With the "blue shift" in some states, that should also save some Dems that are trailing but I am definitely not happy with what happened in that chamber.

[AndyHogan14]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

That bold strategy should be let Trump have a complete meltdown between now and January and hope that some Trump voters stay home.

[AndyHogan14]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

It's time for a new Speaker of the House. I'm sure she'll stay at least until 2022 and ideally she'll retire.

I think she was planning on retiring in 2018 if HRC had won...I see no reason why she wouldn't retire heading into the 2022 midterm. Go out on top.

[AndyHogan14]

From the perspective of a supporter of Trump, the past 24 hours could not have been more horrifying.

Most of them were expecting a quick victory, allowing them to get ample and sound sleep. Many of them did.

And I tossed and turned all night and only got like 3 hours. But I anticipate no issues tonight. 💤

Logically, I know that Biden is in a good position, but I will not have a good night's sleep until he actually crosses 270 (or at least when PA flips).

[AndyHogan14]

Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

County sweep for Biden! Lol.

[AndyHogan14]

There hasn't been an update on the Georgia SOS site in over an hour—anyone know how reliable that one source was that gave the 12k update is?

[AndyHogan14]

Wait, it went back up?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324214930816540673

It... shouldn’t have.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.

That was over an hour ago though. If the NBC guy is correct, I would assume that would be reflected in the next update.

[AndyHogan14]

Even if Fulton finished we still have votes left in Clayton, Gwinnett, Richmond, Muscogee, and Bibb.

As far as I can tell, Fulton's numbers aren't in the state totals yet.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

"please have all facts and evidence"

It would be... very unfortunate if somehow a bunch of people were to flood this site with nonsense that has nothing to do with voter fraud.

I'm thinking about responding and saying that there is a fraudulent organization known as the Trump campaign trying to stop the counting of ballots. Ha!

[AndyHogan14]

Clayton to report rest of its votes by midnight, per CNN.

But will the person who puts the numbers on the website go home before that time (like last night)?

[AndyHogan14]

Down to 42k in Pennsylvania according to Fox News...doesn't seem to be updated on the NYT map yet though.

[AndyHogan14]

-snip-

That's not gonna happen lmao. Most Democrats got the only thing they wanted. They got rid of the cheeto in the White House. No one will give a sh*t.

1. Man is openly advocating for an authoritarian coup and you’re still acting like it’s some performative wokeness or some s—t to primarily want him out of the White House rather than quite possibly the single most urgent thing in the world.

2. I bet you as much money as will be spent on GA senate seats in the coming weeks that Dems will take it VERY seriously.

I'm actually gonna agree with Alben here. I'm confident we're gonna put up a hell of a fight for the runoffs, and spending is gonna be off the charts. Even without Trump on the ballot, both Ossoff and Warnock are well liked and Loeffler is despised.

I also think that Trump is going to do plenty if ridiculously insane things between now and January to hurt the GOP in those races.

[AndyHogan14]

A Congresswoman from Nevada with a drawl. Wow.

Susie Lee?

Dina Titus (she was born in Georgia, I believe)

[AndyHogan14]

We need an organization focused on moving Dems out of California and other Safe D states into swing states. Keep the Blue Wall blue, demographic-shift Georgia, North Carolina, Texas to the left. With the right strategy, I think we can keep the R EC advantage down. Maybe try to overwhelm Wyoming with sheer numbers, Vermont-in-the-80s style?

Coming Soon: the Californian Empire

Rule! California! California Rule the Waves! Californians never shall be slaves!

[AndyHogan14]

I wish I had a Nielsen box so I could turn off the TV to hurt their ratings right now...this is ridiculous.

[AndyHogan14]

Maybe Pat Toomey wants a spot in the cabinet or a nice ambassadorship?

[AndyHogan14]

As a teacher, I love this. Other than Trump and Barr, I will be most happy to see her go.

[AndyHogan14]

What's going on with North Carolina.  Out of all the close states they've been the slowest.  Literally no progress in days it seems.  I doubt Biden wins it but there are a lot of deeply blue counties that have votes outstanding.

If I remember correctly, they’re allowing ballots to be received up until the 12th and will count after then.

Do we know how many ballots they have received thus far? How many do they expect to receive before Thursday? I don't expect Biden (or Cunningham) to win, but it seems strange that the state has not been called yet.

[AndyHogan14]

This is getting pathetic
https://twitter.com/nicklutsko/status/1326375815572025344?s=21

That's not a real clip...is it sad that it's believable that Fox News might do something like this though?

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328886157246156801

He still doesn't know I guess. 🤭

I always see the "more votes than people" talk regarding counties with high black population, hmm.

Well, they think the votes of black people are only worth 3/5 of that of white people.

[AndyHogan14]

https://mobile.twitter.com/costareports/status/1328888520203767809

If they actually succeed in this insane plan (which they won't), then House Democrats should simply refuse to seat a number of Republicans so they control enough House delegations and elect Biden.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

All he does is tweet.  Why the hell does he want to be President for 4 more years?  He clearly has no interest in actually doing his job. 

Answer:

Cy Vance counting the days...

Why wait?  Let's get an "Indictment of the Week" going.  Start with Donald Jr., move down the line, and cap it off with Trump sometime after January 20.

LOCK THEM UP! Maybe the Trump Org will get dissolved as RICO violator too.

Yeah, about that:

https://mobile.twitter.com/aravosis/status/1329592367716982787