Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Pericles]

CNN raising an interesting point that Biden delivered for youth and brought a youth vote surge with action on climate, weed and student loans.

[Pericles]

New York is always like this, don't get carried away.

[Pericles]

Eh, who cares if we lose the House by a couple of seats. The Senate is the real prize, and watching the completely unwieldy Repulbican coalition tear itself apart will be absolutely hilarious. No matter what happens, Kevin McCarthy loses, which is a win in my book.

We really want to be able to pass more legislation though.

[Pericles]

Tshibaka is doing surprisingly well in Alaska.

[Pericles]

If Eric Adams had shut the f!ck up and not constantly been talking about how terrible crime is in NYC, and if Hochul hadn't waited until the covid regime had entirely broken down and turned into a joke ignored by everyone to repeal it, then Democrats would not be losing 5 seats in NY right now and the House along with them! Moron idiots, they need to resign tomorrow!

You should know as a New Yorker that this always happens, remember how people were hyping up how well Trump and Republicans did in New York in 2020 and then the late ballots showed a much more normal result. Give it a few weeks.

[Pericles]

Win or lose on the latter's part, Fetterman and Barnes have proven something tonight that I think all of our future Senate candidates should take to heart going forward.

Inspire. Your. Base.

Barnes shouldn't get a participation medal. Did Evers inspire the base? No, he ran a safe campaign and didn't spend years going left needlessly in a 50-50 state. Ron John was so beatable, wish Dems had gone normcore with Alex or Sarah. Dems really needed this seat to have any shot of holding senate in 2024. Barnes blew it, so maybe hold off on the haliography.

That seat is going to come back to bite us.

[Pericles]

Dems are doing better than historical average, so they can be pleased with that.

Best Midterm for an incumbent party since 1970 or 1978.

I predict that Midterm Waves are dead and will probably not happen for another 30 years.
These look like stable Party Coalitions that don't budge easily.

Democrats won by 9 points even when the economy was pretty great. Republicans are responsible for a huge fluke by scaring suburban Biden voters so badly, if they had toned it down slightly they would have won big.

[Pericles]

Anyone who thought this election would be a wave for Republicans was a dumbass lmao

Classic examples of how the dumbasses know everything with hindsight. I was telling you at the time that the data didn't back up all this talk of a wave.

[Pericles]

Cortez Masto needs to bring this home, it would be such a relief to have the Senate decided tonight.

[Pericles]

By the way, Democrat Jevin Hodge is up by 10 points with 61% of the vote counted in Arizona's 1st district, so that would be another flip and see incumbent David Schweikert lose.

[Pericles]

I just looked at New York, and most of the uncalled races have super narrow Republican leads and they have a known counting bias. There won't be a net change there, Rs have a big gain in NY-03 randomly but are going to lose Katko's district.

[Pericles]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410354.msg7729262#msg7729262 Looks like Suozzi was looking at risk or even down on election night 2020 and he won by 12 points, classic New York.

[Pericles]

The other thing about the Fetterman win is that he is the first Democrat to win that Senate seat since 1962. It's hard to find if Pennsylvania has ever had two Democratic Senators.

[Pericles]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410354.msg7729262#msg7729262 Looks like Suozzi was looking at risk or even down on election night 2020 and he won by 12 points, classic New York.

New York counts Absentees prior to/on election day now.  While there are obviously still more to count the 11th hour surge will not be as drastic as in 2020, so Im not convinced Democrats are able to make up the margin in the upstate districts.

Well I was also reassured by the narrow margins in them, I'm looking at the NYT count. NY19-R+2%, NY22-R+2%, NY17-R+2%, NY4-R+4%, and Pat Ryan is already leading, though NY3 is R+8%.

[Pericles]

Somebody explain to me why PA and OH are going seperate political routes, was Oz a completely toxic candidate that destroyed the GOP operation in PA? Are rural Ohioans just way more right-wing?

It looks like Vance underperformed by a similar amount to Oz, Ohio is just a different, more Republican state.

[Pericles]

Laxalt pulls ahead, RIP.

You realize Kelly is poised to win and Fetterman already declared a winner? And Warnock in a runoff?

There could still be a few weeks for it all to go wrong. It is theoretically possible that Democrats have won the House but then Walker comes back to win the runoff and Republicans win the Senate, which would be awful but also a hilarious outcome.

[Pericles]

Looks like Nevada will be a long one too, maybe my prediction will be right and it will be an even longer and dragged out recount.

[Pericles]

It will take a long time for the analysts to figure out if 1/6 and election denial was a big part of this, but the rejection of that WILL be a big part of the narrative. That is a big deal for the country and it makes it less likely that the Republicans who did win will try and tamper with the 2024 election.

[Pericles]

Jeez Republicans are only leading in 221 House seats (according to CNN), late ballots could easily wipe that out.

[Pericles]

Anything out of NE-02?

Don Bacon won.

[Pericles]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

[Pericles]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

Which are you likelies?

NJ07. IA03 (I though these two were already called), AZ02, AZ06, MT01, CA03, CA22 (though Valadao has about the same lead as he did this time in 2018), CA23, CA27, CA40 and CA45. NY22, MD06, AZ01 and OR05 are the ones that are tilting Repubican. CA41 is the mystery, because Calvert is down by a lot but he's a long-time incumbent in a Trump district and there's so much of the vote left. All the others I have going for Democrats.

[Pericles]

While I think the November 2021 results indicated Republicans would get a wave election, it is possible Republicans were never on track for a great election. A special election on the same day as those state elections had a decent result for Democrats, and the generic ballot polling was never that grim. It could have been just lagging and Republicans would have surged like they have in past midterms. However, maybe voters were always turned off by Kevin McCarthy's national party and treated them differently to state parties initially. It will probably be impossible to determine, but knowing how much Republicans were really leading before Dobbs is critical to determining if this was a 1/6 backlash election or just a Dobbs backlash election.

[Pericles]

While I think the November 2021 results indicated Republicans would get a wave election, it is possible Republicans were never on track for a great election. A special election on the same day as those state elections had a decent result for Democrats, and the generic ballot polling was never that grim. It could have been just lagging and Republicans would have surged like they have in past midterms. However, maybe voters were always turned off by Kevin McCarthy's national party and treated them differently to state parties initially. It will probably be impossible to determine, but knowing how much Republicans were really leading before Dobbs is critical to determining if this was a 1/6 backlash election or just a Dobbs backlash election.

A lot of people didn't understand that a state-level election not only has distinct issues from a national one most often, but it also has different stakes. Things like the issues with the Loudoun school board mattered more in a distinctly-more-local atmosphere of a state-level election. And it hurt McAuliffe. And Youngkin and other Republicans ran an excellent campaign with few mistakes. Simply extrapolating that to the wider nation was probably always fraught.

Maybe but you do have to account for New Jersey Republicans also having a great election and I think they had some good results in other states too, but maybe McAuliffe and Phil Murphy were both weaker than generic Democrats.

[Pericles]

So uh... I guess we're not gonna know who officially controls either chamber this evening, but we can probably assume Democrats hold the Senate and the House flips?

I'm tired of checking this thread every five minutes, and like after any other election I'm just exhausted.

The House looks like it will be so close it will be a mess that takes weeks to call, but slightly more Republicans are likely going to be elected yes.