Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Another thing this election proves is that a large percentage of those 'wrong direction' and/or 'dissatisfied' voters in polls were actually Progressives and left-leaning voters, as we said all along.

[Alben Barkley]

A red wave? At this time of year? At this time of day? In this part of the country? Localized entirely within Florida?

Yes!

...May I see it?

...

No.

[Lief 🗽]

David Wasserman should not be trusted. A crass sensationalist, who has been completely found out now that the internal polls he relied on for his predictions have turned out to be junk.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590042484041986050

[LimoLiberal]

Katie Porter leading by less than 1 now... anybody have a read on what the remaining ballots will look like?

[Dani Rose]

CO-03, MT-01, and NM-02 really giving me hope for a Cowboy Wave.

[wbrocks67]

CNN keeps airing this commercial where they have both clips of Hillary and Kemp saying how big of a deal the economy is to peoples votes and I can't help but feel the irony given that pundits tried to tell us this entire cycle of how the economy/inflation was ALL that mattered, and yet...

[Alben Barkley]

I want to congratulate the Democrats here on a great result for the party. And I want to congratulate all Americans on the fact that the country has finally, in my opinion, begun to abandon extremism. I hope that these results will be the first step in restoring bipartisan cooperation for the benefit of the United States and the world at large.

I wonder too how much of this might actually be a response to everyone from MTG to Kevin McCarthy suggesting that Republicans would limit aid to Ukraine. At the end of the day this is still a compassionate country with people who hate to see what is going on in your country and want to help. The cold-hearted callousness of those Republicans may have aided Democrats in our success and given people second thoughts about voting GOP, as one of many reasons anyway.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Does anyone have the tweet saying something about pollsters will have to figure out how to adapt to the under-30 crowd who would rather pick up an unpinned grenade than a call from an unknown number?

[TheReckoning]

Anyone who thought this election would be a wave for Republicans was a dumbass lmao

[Yoda]

Michigan and Pennsylvania having localized blue waves during a Democratic president's midterm with 8% inflation and a 42% approval rating is really funny.

It really, really is. Also bodes well for a Biden firewall in '24. Hope trump blows his entire campaign treasury trying to flip Biden Country.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

What are the chances Gluesenkamp Pérez beats Joe Kent? It seems like she is holding her own in Clark County, 59% while Biden won it by 50%, although I'm not sure how the voting methods in WA benefit each side.

In the past, later returns tended to favor Dems, but this seems to be becoming less and less the case with every election. I think Perez is in a very good position to keep this competitive as the later returns come in, but I genuinely have no idea where it will end up.

One thing that's clear about WA-3 is that Perez has built this current lead on both ancestral Dems and ascendent Dems. She's +18 in Clark County (Vancouver), which has been the biggest bright spot for Dems in an otherwise R-shifting area, but she has also kept Cowlitz County to within single digits (for now) and is in the lead in Pacific County, two places which have swung hard to the right since the Obama years.

I seem to recall during the primary Kent was down by quite a lot (to the point where a few people here were already calling it) and then the last ~20% of the vote was absurdly favourable to him. I'm pretty sure they counted the E-Day in person votes last or almost last.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Some great Nevada analysis from a well-known Trump supporting site that has many positive up-votes already.

Welp, Nevada's elections were again stolen
I waited in line for 1hr 15min to vote in person... I heard a lot of different languages being spoken and people were definitely being coaxed while waiting in line

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looking at the map, CA-03 takes in a huge chunk of Placer County, which has trended Dem pretty significantly. I guess a flip here should be unsurprising.

[philly09]

SPM down only 1.2 points and Westchester is the only county with a big cache of votes left. I think he got this.

This would be hilarious as Kevin McCarthy was boasting about beating him earlier tonight.

[ExSky]

It is also abundantly clear that pundits and analysts had assumed that underestimating polls could only happen for Republican candidates in the current climate.

They’re going to be more confused than ever. And as the Gen Z crowd that doesn’t know what a landline even is continues to age in to the voting bloc, polls will become more and more chaotic and unreliable.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324723749736861696

Thank you Nathaniel, very cool!

[Alben Barkley]

Anyone who thought this election would be a wave for Republicans was a dumbass lmao

Oh there are so many names I could name...

But I'll take the high road for now and just say I'm glad they were all dumbasses.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I want to congratulate the Democrats here on a great result for the party. And I want to congratulate all Americans on the fact that the country has finally, in my opinion, begun to abandon extremism. I hope that these results will be the first step in restoring bipartisan cooperation for the benefit of the United States and the world at large.

I wonder too how much of this might actually be a response to everyone from MTG to Kevin McCarthy suggesting that Republicans would limit aid to Ukraine. At the end of the day this is still a compassionate country with people who hate to see what is going on in your country and want to help. The cold-hearted callousness of those Republicans may have aided Democrats in our success and given people second thoughts about voting GOP, as one of many reasons anyway.

I agree. At least in the Northeast, public opinion is STAUNCHLY pro-Ukraine across the political spectrum, and even people who would privately be fine with sending much less money and materiel were really turned off by how flippant and cruel MTG and McCarthy were in their comments about it.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Katie Porter leading by less than 1 now... anybody have a read on what the remaining ballots will look like?

We're not gonna know this one for days; the mail in ballots are going to take forever to process.

[Gass3268]

Looking at the map, CA-03 takes in a huge chunk of Placer County, which has trended Dem pretty significantly. I guess a flip here should be unsurprising.

The weather was not great there today either.

[Pericles]

Anyone who thought this election would be a wave for Republicans was a dumbass lmao

Classic examples of how the dumbasses know everything with hindsight. I was telling you at the time that the data didn't back up all this talk of a wave.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324723749736861696

Thank you Nathaniel, very cool!

Always been my least favorite FiveThirtyEighter.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm pleasently surprised after I digged myself into work for the last few hours and just begun checking stuff 2-3 hours ago.

Still, don't tell me we can keep the House? May come down to swing districts in PA. Anyway, grab your popcorn for the speaker election if the GOP wins a narrow majority.

And Boebert losing even compensates DeSantis winning by more than even I - as DeSantis apologist - predicted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looking at the map, CA-03 takes in a huge chunk of Placer County, which has trended Dem pretty significantly. I guess a flip here should be unsurprising.

The weather was not great there today either.

Is it possible that it impacted enough voters to give Ds a win?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Katie Porter leading by less than 1 now... anybody have a read on what the remaining ballots will look like?

NYT says Porter has a 0.6% (<1000 votes) lead with ~55% of the vote in (NYT estimate was +3.7). This scares me even more than CA-45 currently being at Steel +10 at ~49%.