2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 635828 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2020, 08:33:32 PM »
Ouch Cunningham is lagging Biden by 2%, though Tillis is barely ahead of Trump's percentage.
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Pericles
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2020, 08:37:12 PM »
For Kansas, "initial results may be too good to be true for Democrats. Expect a red shift as election night wears on." https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ It would be beautiful if Bollier could win there, but don't fully trust the early results.
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Pericles
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2020, 08:38:12 PM »
If OH actually flips and gives Biden a clear win relatively early, then maybe he was actually a genius for focusing so much on it.
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Pericles
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2020, 08:43:28 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 08:40:18 PM
Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.
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Pericles
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2020, 08:49:08 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on November 03, 2020, 08:45:16 PM
Quote from: President Pericles on November 03, 2020, 08:43:28 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 08:40:18 PM
Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

Biden only needs WI + MI + PA and with the rural white swings he's very likely to get them, and it looks like overall whites swinging to Biden will swamp minorities swinging to Trump.
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Pericles
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2020, 08:50:17 PM »
Quote from: tjstarling on November 03, 2020, 08:46:37 PM
It is still early and I have no idea how this will shake out, but maybe we all owe Hillary a big apology. Maybe she was never the problem and maybe Trump was always going to win 2016.

Yeah way too early. No evidence actually suggests that could be true.
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Pericles
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2020, 08:58:54 PM »
Quote from: #proudtikitorchmarcher on November 03, 2020, 08:56:50 PM
Quote from: President Pericles on November 03, 2020, 08:49:08 PM
Quote from: Hammy on November 03, 2020, 08:45:16 PM
Quote from: President Pericles on November 03, 2020, 08:43:28 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 08:40:18 PM
Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

Biden only needs WI + MI + PA and with the rural white swings he's very likely to get them, and it looks like overall whites swinging to Biden will swamp minorities swinging to Trump.

Rural whites have not swung D, stop trying to gaslight this forum
Looking through the 98% counted Indiana counties it just seems in most of them the 3rd party has split 50/50 with some counties swinging a point or 2 D and some swinging R. However due to increased turnout this is a pretty big net gain for Trump. However white suburban areas have zoomed left even past 2018 levels and this is why Biden is still favored in the critical 3.
 

Biden was polling better with non college-educated whites than either Hillary's 2016 polling or result, and this is clearly being seen in counties across the map (just look at Ohio).
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Pericles
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2020, 09:04:53 PM »
Lol the KS counting bias is crazy, Biden is up by 6% there. 37% in.
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Pericles
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« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2020, 09:25:26 PM »
If Trump wins a few states narrowly, maybe late ballots then save Biden & Senate Dems? Hopefully there are no SC shenanigans though.
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Pericles
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« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2020, 09:48:07 PM »
Quote from: Dabeav on November 03, 2020, 09:45:22 PM
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/ shows that with >99% of the vote in NC, Biden has a .5 point lead. This might be recount territory.

So Cunningham is down by just 426 votes right now? Another FL 2018 mess (but Cunningham might be favored with late ballots).
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Pericles
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« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2020, 10:12:15 PM »

It'll be great if the Senate flips because of IA and MT, even if NC disappoints (ME is also worrying though). Seems unlikely, but Democrats are lucky that they have so many plausible opportunities for gains.
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Pericles
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« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2020, 10:13:42 PM »

You've very probably lost the presidency though. My worry is that everybody is screwed and government is divided, not that Trump has a high chance at actually winning.
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Pericles
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2020, 10:20:03 PM »
This sh*t is going to drag on for days and weeks as the blue shift takes place. Not what America and the world needed, in-character for 2020. Though 2020 gave my country a left-wing landslide at least.
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Pericles
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2020, 10:21:24 PM »
How much of a red shift is there supposed to be in Utah? It would be a huge upset and I don't think it happens, but Biden is up by less than a point there according to NYT.
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Pericles
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« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2020, 10:22:18 PM »
Quote from: Pulaski on November 03, 2020, 10:20:56 PM
Quote from: President Pericles on November 03, 2020, 10:20:03 PM
This sh*t is going to drag on for days and weeks as the blue shift takes place. Not what America and the world needed, in-character for 2020. Though 2020 gave my country a left-wing landslide at least.

No legal weed though Sad

Yeah, that wasn't a surprise based on the polls but it was disappointing.
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Pericles
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« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2020, 10:25:04 PM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 03, 2020, 10:22:49 PM
Am I the only one who still thinks Biden wins lol

Yeah I don't think we're seeing Trump actually winning again and getting the kind of performances he needs (except in Miami). The Senate better flip though.
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Pericles
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« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2020, 10:27:48 PM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on November 03, 2020, 10:25:53 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 03, 2020, 10:22:49 PM
Am I the only one who still thinks Biden wins lol
It's over son. Trump's winning Ohio by 5 point/his lead is just going to expand. Expect the same to happen in PA/MI.

Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, and the blue shift has been endlessly repeated for months. You need to have a big lead tonight to win (not voter fraud dumbass, just all the actual valid votes haven't been counted and won't be tonight), you're not getting that.
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Pericles
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2020, 10:28:50 PM »

Why are you calling Georgia for Trump? It always has a big counting bias so the Republican lead shrinks late.
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Pericles
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2020, 10:34:29 PM »
Susan Collins seems to be outrunning Trump by a lot.
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Pericles
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2020, 10:36:48 PM »
Uh oh, it doesn't look like Bullock is outrunning Biden by much (very early). Democrats might need Biden to win Iowa and bring Greenfield along with him (though possible that Alaska is random and gives Al Gross the win).
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Pericles
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« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2020, 10:41:53 PM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on November 03, 2020, 10:40:37 PM


Oh my god, this is amazing!
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Pericles
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« Reply #46 on: November 03, 2020, 11:09:52 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 03, 2020, 11:09:18 PM
On a Senate note:  GA-SEN candidate Doug Collins has just conceded to Loeffler.  (NYT)

Some good news for Democrats there.
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Pericles
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« Reply #47 on: November 03, 2020, 11:45:01 PM »
GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.
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Pericles
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« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2020, 11:47:19 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 03, 2020, 11:46:27 PM
Quote from: President Pericles on November 03, 2020, 11:45:01 PM
GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

Nope, Clinton only lost it by 5%, very winnable with trends.
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Pericles
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« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2020, 12:18:08 AM »
Great news with Georgia!
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