Elizabeth Warren 2020 campaign megathread

[Pericles]

I watched the video, and the message in it was pretty powerful and appealed to me imo. If she can stick to an economically populist message, while also making clear that class is not the only issue(as Bernie failed to do), she could do well. However sadly given the quality of the media and the lack of focus on policy in elections she seems likely to struggle(though given the size of the field almost everyone is likely to struggle), and her electability remains a big question mark.

[Pericles]

Beet has a point; Trump's policies were more memorable and a bigger part of his message than Hillary's policies. Hillary's ads had very little about policy (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/8/14848636/hillary-clinton-tv-ads), perhaps if she'd have more of an economic message of her own she'd have won.

[Pericles]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/19/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-1282642

The Massachusetts senator launched into a brief history lesson on African-American homebuyers being rejected outside designated areas, black families getting hit hardest by subprime mortgages and foreclosures during the 2008 crash, and black homeownership still lagging far behind whites. “That’s a problem, and it’s a race problem,” Warren thundered, emphasizing “race” as the crowd erupted into applause. “And we need to attack it head on.”


Warren is stuck in single digits in national polls and is being overshadowed by white male rivals like Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. But her consistent attention to racial disparities — and her truckful of policy proposals to fix them across every economic issue — is drawing praise from a critical voting bloc that could eventually pay dividends: African-Americans, and especially African-American women.

[Pericles]

I think this is a mistake, she could have made a good impression and reached out to people, Bernie's townhall was pretty successful. Expectations and people's images are so low of her that it's not hard to overperform.

Also I'm reminded of this article; https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/11/warren-west-virginia-2020-1317611

Kermit is one of the epicenters of the opioid addiction epidemic. The toll is visible. The community center is shuttered. Fire trucks are decades old. When Warren asked people at the beginning of the event to raise their hands if they knew somebody who’s been “caught in the grips of addiction,” most hands went up.

“That’s why I’m here today,” she said.

Warren entered the room from behind a large American flag draped in the station. Roving around a circle of people seated in fold-out chairs, she tried to strike a tone equal parts empathy and fury, while avoiding pity. She went full prairie populist, telling people their pain and suffering was caused by predatory pharmaceutical barons.

The 63-year-old fire chief, Wilburn “Tommy” Preece, warned Warren and her team beforehand that the area was “Trump country” and to not necessarily expect a friendly reception. But he also told her that the town would welcome anyone, of any party, who wanted to address the opioid crisis. Preece was the first responder to a reported overdose two years ago only to discover that the victim was his younger brother Timmy, who died.

Preece said after the event that he voted for Trump and that the president has revitalized the area economically. But he gave Warren props for showing up.

“She done good,” he said.

Others agreed.

[Pericles]

The establishment wants to inflate these non-scandals because they know if the election is about her ideas and her message she will win.

[Pericles]

If Warren replaces Sanders as the dominant candidate of the party left she could gain a lot of support as she is more acceptable to the rest of the party and to the establishment than Bernie. While I'm sceptical still about electability, if she can come from behind and win the primary that's a pretty strong case for her being a good candidate.

[Pericles]

This figure is pretty interesting, albeit from Emerson but it doesn't seem junky.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-lanes-the-democratic-primary-is-a-whole-freaking-transit-system/

Of the top 4 Warren has the greatest ability it seems to appeal to different factions, Biden and Sanders have more concentrated support and Harris' support leans to the establishment wing too. It's quite interesting how a majority of Warren's supporters don't actually come from the Sanders 2016 vote but rather the Hillary 2016 vote, which goes a bit against her image. Buttigieg has a similar dynamic to Warren and actually his support is more from the Sanders vote, but making judgements from his lower numbers may be less reliable. This also doesn't include those who didn't vote in the 2016 Democratic primary, data on those voters would be interesting.

[Pericles]

I'm not 100% sure how Warren should fund her GE campaign, but if she does need corporate money the real culprit would be America's broken campaign finance system-and Warren needs to get into office before she can change it (such as by nominating justices to the SC who would overturn Citizens United, while if Trump wins due to 'unilateral disarmament' he would get to appoint even more justices and Citizens United would be solidified).

[Pericles]

Warren's debate performance will continue the slow and steady rise of her campaign. It is more risky if she surges now and this could result in her peaking and being damaged before the primaries, it's better for her to get to say 25-30% by January 2020 than to jump to 25-30% now and risk falling all the way back down. She has plenty if attacks she can use on Biden in future debates, probably closer to actual voting so that voters are more likely to respond. Already Harris and Beto have peaked too early and are now suffering.

[Pericles]

It's really a no-brainer that the WFP would endorse her. She supports eliminating the filibuster and has centered universal child care in her platform. Bernie is cool or whatever, but how is he going to pass ANY of his legislation while refusing to consider getting rid of the filibuster? It's nothing but hot air.

Tbh, Bernie is going to kill the filibuster without saying he's killed the filibuster (link), though I think it would be wiser and easier just to straight up kill the filibuster. I do think that the filibuster will ultimately be killed almost regardless of who wins, someone who says they won't kill it now will change their mind and maybe even already plans on killing it and just wants to look better when they actually do kill it.

[Pericles]

I think Warren is holding her fire on attacking Biden right now, she has plenty to attack him on closer to the primary. This is probably wise-she doesn't want to peak and fall like Kamala Harris.

[Pericles]

I think Warren is holding her fire on attacking Biden right now, she has plenty to attack him on closer to the primary. This is probably wise-she doesn't want to peak and fall like Kamala Harris.

The danger of holding your fire is that other, less competent pols will steal your attacks and get easily beaten down by Biden, thus making him invulnerable to future repetitions of the same attack.

Everybody's too afraid to attack Biden over his memory now after Castro's very poor attempt.

What's the precedent for that happening? It seems possible, but perhaps more likely the attacks wear down the frontrunner so they are more vulnerable to a competent assault?

[Pericles]

I think Warren is holding her fire on attacking Biden right now, she has plenty to attack him on closer to the primary. This is probably wise-she doesn't want to peak and fall like Kamala Harris.

The danger of holding your fire is that other, less competent pols will steal your attacks and get easily beaten down by Biden, thus making him invulnerable to future repetitions of the same attack.

Everybody's too afraid to attack Biden over his memory now after Castro's very poor attempt.

What's the precedent for that happening? It seems possible, but perhaps more likely the attacks wear down the frontrunner so they are more vulnerable to a competent assault?

2016, Jeb! wasted all the best Trump attacks and Rubio/Cruz were left with scraps.

It seemed the problem was more that both Jeb and the other candidate's attacks didn't resonate with the party. And, while I'm less inclined to see 2016 this way, isn't your thinking also that Bernie's attacks made Hillary weaker in the general so more vulnerable to Trump's attacks? Why would the minor candidates not have the same effect for when Biden faces a more formidable opponent?

[Pericles]

I think Warren made the right call here. She would look inauthentic from doing big-dollar fundraisers, and be less able to get across a 'drain the swamp' message, small donors seem pretty engaged and I think she will have plenty of money either way. Given the political pros and cons aren't clearly for doing these fundraisers it's good she's done the right thing, this sets the right example and the big-dollar fundraisers enhance the influence of the wealthy and are bad for democracy.

[Pericles]

Gillum couldn't win Florida in 2018, and is hampered by his ethics scandals, so it's illogical to think he'd be much use in flipping Florida in 2020 (and Florida likely won't be the tipping-point state anyway)

[Pericles]

Excellent trolling from Warren-great move.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/wideofthepost/status/1183168042920005632?s=21

I like Reid but hopefully he’s wrong here.

Warren didn't support single payer until after Hillary lost. She won't fight very hard to have it passed.

Bernie’s answer to getting it passed with a minority or without blowing up the filibuster is having rallies in Kentucky so......

Bernie would effectively eliminate the filibuster while officially preserving it, see here, though his way does seem overly complicated and just eliminating the filibuster would be preferable.

[Pericles]

She didn't seem nasty though, and had a good demeanor throughout. It was a light-hearted response. You can't reasonably expect presidential candidates to answer differently before Iowa and New Hampshire have voted, so I don't see how she could have given a different answer.

[Pericles]

She didn't seem nasty though, and had a good demeanor throughout. It was a light-hearted response. You can't reasonably expect presidential candidates to answer differently before Iowa and New Hampshire have voted, so I don't see how she could have given a different answer.

Watch her body language, facial expressions, and tone of voice.  She's thinking "Who the f[inks] do you think you are asking me this?!" Also listen to the way she says "Yeah"to Amy Goodman.

Warren is acting like the "Nasty Woman" that Trump accused Hillary of being.  She lacks the temperament to be on stage to outwit Donald Trump.  Take this and the Native American DNA test incident, and you have someone who very easily takes someone's bait.

I just don't see it. She seems positive throughout, and has a bit of a light-hearted smile at the question. Maybe you can find something if you want to find a reason to dislike Warren, but I don't so I don't see it (and idk what I'd think if I were a neutral observer tbf though you clearly aren't one either). Really though, it seems like you're stretching and being unfair to Warren here.

[Pericles]

Warren is ontop of the polls again. Warren seems youthful; whereas, Bernie and Biden seem old. Hope Warren wins, now.

Watching Trump beat her would be priceless. No one wants their boring 5th grade school teacher as President.

Sad that people think like this. Logically I'd think you'd rather have a smart person, even if they're 'boring' than an idiot as your leader (and especially when it's Warren vs Trump).

[Pericles]

Warren is ontop of the polls again. Warren seems youthful; whereas, Bernie and Biden seem old. Hope Warren wins, now.

Watching Trump beat her would be priceless. No one wants their boring 5th grade school teacher as President.

Sad that people think like this. Logically I'd think you'd rather have a smart person, even if they're 'boring' than an idiot as your leader (and especially when it's Warren vs Trump).

She’s friends with my enemies. Which makes her my enemy.

What are you talking about?

[Pericles]

The deadline of year 3 suggests that Warren might not prioritize healthcare over other issues as recent Presidents have done (and it backfired for everyone who did so, even Obama who narrowly passed healthcare reform). This is a bit concerning for Medicare for All supporters, but is probably a good move politically and if she uses the first two years well on less toxic issues that nevertheless have a big positive impact it might be better for Democrats and progressives in the long-term.