Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[OneJ]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

What was the Clinton-Trump result?

Honestly I'm not sure, I'll have to look it up. It has a large amount of black voters.

59.67% Clinton
35.92% Trump

Huge swing from last year.

[OneJ]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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As a black person myself from MS, also underage, I can confirm that it was true. What more could I say? Jones needed us to do the dirty stuff.

[OneJ]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

With Alabamas super strict voter ID law, I think this is pretty much impossible.

The guy said we came from parts of the country to vote and we got our guy elected.

That’s voter fraud 100%.

Clearly, you're misinterpreting the context of what he said. He's basically stating that people from across the country came to Alabama (or maybe gave money to Doug's campaign) and actively volunteered to help Jones win. Like the others before me said, voter fraud is very tough to commit, especially in a state like Alabama where it's really near impossible to do something like this and get away with it.

[OneJ]

Let's face it the Doug Jones victory in Alabama, was heavily based upon a combination of factors:

1.) High African-American turnout in an off-year election.

2.) Significant swings towards the Democratic candidate among College-Educated and Upper-Income White voters in the larger Metro Areas of the State.

3.) Less significant, but still swings towards the Democratic Candidate among WWC and Middle-Class voters in traditionally Democratic regions of the State, such as Northern Alabama, where in some cases Doug Jones exceeded, and in other cases came close to matching, Gore's numbers from 2000.

4.) Major decline of Republican voter turnout, especially among older White Rural precincts throughout the State.

5.) Massive Generational Gap with Jones winning voters under the age of 45 (60-38), narrowly losing the 45-64 Year Vote (47-51), and losing the 65+ Yr vote (40-59).

Sure some of that can be explained by a dramatic decrease in turnout among older White Republican Voters disgusted by Moore's behavior (See some of the rural precinct results that I have been posting), BUT looking at those 18-44 Year old numbers should frighten any Republican running for Statewide office in the Great State of Alabama.

Although Moore might have been the worst possible candidate Alabama 'Pubs could have nominated (All of the Sexual assault and harassment issues, some involving Minors likely narrowly sunk his campaign), still the "Republican Civil War" is pitting the "Populist Republicans" against the "Country Club Republicans", and right now the Populist Republicans don't like the dog meat they are getting fed from the Trump Administration and Republican Control of House & Senate, while meanwhile, the Southern "Country Club Republicans" started swinging heavily Dem between '12 and '16 looking at precinct results from Cities in TN, TX, and GA...

Now we are seeing this phenomenon where Doug Jones wins Mountain Brook (60-40) and HRC barely cracked 20% and Trump captured 60%.

Once these types of Upper-Middle Class White Republican Leaning and Indy Voters flip, they tend to flip hard, and frequently permanently.

For many in the wealthier parts of Alabama, this is their first time ever having voted Democratic for a Federal Election, and as we saw in the West Coast in the 1990s and early 2000s, NOVA and similar places in NC in the 2000s and accentuating under Obama, these are voters that will always turn out to vote, and don't like the Republican brand under the current Presidency not to mention the face of their current Party in Alabama.

This does make me wonder about what would happen in MS. It's more rural, has a higher % of the Black population, more racially polarized apparently, and also swung towards Trump (mainly due to depressed Black turnout last year).

[OneJ]

A really classy fellow that Roy Moore is.

Lol.

[OneJ]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

To be fair, most Democrats had low expectations and this race pretty much confirmed that it's not impossible for a Democrat to win in AL, even though the circumstances were, of course, unusual.