So far all of the elections beginning in 2000 look like variants of each other. The last big change that looks permanent is that Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia have gone D and stayed D (although after two elections, Nevada looks shaky as a D state). The second newest is in 2000, when Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, which generally went D in Presidential elections went R and have stayed that way (although Missouri was shaky R in 2008, it voted against a D nominee who won 365 electoral votes that year).
I do not consider two votes in a different direction from what one is accustomed (Florida. Iowa, and Ohio in 2016 and 2020) definitive indications of "permanent" change. That could be that Donald Trump successfully hit the right notes in his campaign there for those states.
Not sure how you consider Trump's performance in Florida/Iowa/Ohio as outliers but not Nevada. Couldn't he have also hit the right notes there and it's the best a GOP candidate can hope for in Nevada (For the time being)?
