2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

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I'm currently getting the TX early vote updates ready for tomorrow and I'm noticing a number of big counties that had best their best voting day of the week yesterday.

I get the feeling Texas is gonna go out with a bang tomorrow on the last day of early voting


EDIT: Here's something that might get TrendsareUsuallyReal excited. Hidalgo county banked 9,985 today, their best day in nearly 2 weeks. That pushed their overall turnout from 94.2% to 99.97% of 2016's total vote

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Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

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Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Dallas and El Paso are now the only big top 10 counties remaining! (I already count Hidalgo as in the bag).

How do you think they'll finish tomorrow? I feel Dallas will eclipse it easily while El Paso might get around 97-98%.

Call me cynical for once regarding Texas, but I'll be surprised if El Paso gets to 100% by tomorrow night

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Tarrant County just updated. 40k votes today, their biggest day since last Wednesday.

And with that, they eclipsed their 2016 vote totals!

Dallas and El Paso are now the only big top 10 counties remaining! (I already count Hidalgo as in the bag).

How do you think they'll end up? I feel Dallas will eclipse it tomorrow, while El Paso might get around 97-98%.

I think Dallas will pass it, and El Paso will be really close. Do you have the numbers for today? The only thing I can find on the county clerk website is from yesterday, 10/28. Lean yes, though, as long as they were able to add 10k+ today to their current 192k total, they should get it tomorrow.

Both counties seem to update their totals the following morning.

El Paso is about 21k away. If they ended up getting around 10k today, I could see them reaching 100%. I'm certainly excited though!

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I sometimes wonder how much better everyone's October in presidential years would be if Florida just had no voter registration by party

Discussion would still be dominated by Democratic turnout in Miami-Dade.

Though I'd certainly prefer that to what we have now

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So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?
(354 map snip)

Honestly, outside of Nevada flipping, that looks like a pretty reasonable map

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If only this forum archived the discussion from four years ago.

You mean this discussion?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245323.0



I also found the 2012 Early Vote thread

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157569.0

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https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322064555934064640?s=20

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Sorry for the delay! I slept in and then was away from the computer. Here ya go, minus my OCD formatting.

Day 17 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 29) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY              1,344,915    54.2%  2016: 102.5%   2018: 111.4%
FORT BEND COUNTY           307,292    63.7%    2016: 117.3%   2018: 120.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY      222,602    60.2%   2016:  108.8%   2018: 117.1%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                741,007     53.0%    2016:  97.6%  2018:  101.8%
TARRANT COUNTY             680,382     56.1%  2016: 101.8%  2018:  108.4%
COLLIN COUNTY                423,855     65.3%   2016: 117.3%    2018: 119.1%
DENTON COUNTY               35,8439     63.4%   2016: 120.0%   2018:  121.2%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   637,128    53.6%   2016: 108.1%   2018: 115.9%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                 521,002     60.9%   2016: 109.1%  2018: 107.6%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY       258,055     68.5%   2016: 127.1%  2018: 123.9%
HAYS COUNTY                      86,637     56.7%   2016: 120.1%  2018: 108.6%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                203,874    41.7%  2016:   95.3%    2018:   100.1%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              173,384    44.3%   2016: 100.0%    2018: 114.3%
NUECES COUNTY                 103,682    49.0%   2016:  99.3%    2018: 110.2%
CAMERON COUNTY              88,873     40.6%   2016:  96.5%    2018: 114.1%

(Hidalgo County actually finished at 99.97%. But screw it, I'm counting it anyway)

(Also, the Texas Elections site didn't report Galveston in-person numbers for whatever reason. Did they just not open the polls yesterday?

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Can you do Bell County?

I'll try and do it later tonight. I'll be MIA from the computer again

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https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322323822213619712?s=19

Now back to your regularly scheduled "We don't need to placate young voters but we'll certainly blame them if Trump wins" election rant

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Early vote jumped today in Hidalgo Co (McAllen), as @KamalaHarris @BetoORourke @JulianCastro rallied supporters

County finishes w 187,893 early + mail votes. 

There were 173,437 total votes there in 2016

E Day to come.

Tweet from Jonathan Martin

Poor MJ Hegar not even getting a mention

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@Trends: If the curbside ballots get thrown out, how much of an impact does that have on your TX predictions? I don't know if I'm overreacting, but this makes me very nervous about Biden's chances of flipping it. More than anything else that's been going on there

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If I can cut through the Texas-related pessimism for even a second (Yeah, I feel it too)...


...I got the final Texas early voting update! And now with graphs!


Day 18 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 30)


GREATER HOUSTON


HARRIS COUNTY             1,435,221    57.9%     2016: 109.4%     2018: 118.8%



FORT BEND COUNTY           327,811   68.0%     2016: 125.1%     2018: 128.3%



MONTGOMERY COUNTY       237,186   64.1%     2016: 115.9%     2018: 124.8%



GALVESTON COUNTY          137,151   60.0%     2016: 111.6%     2018: 120.7%



- Fort Bend County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 64.9%
- Galveston County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 59.0%

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DALLAS-FORT WORTH (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


DALLAS COUNTY                794,398   56.8%    2016 : 104.7%    2018: 109.1%


TARRANT COUNTY              731,473   60.3%     2016: 109.4%     2018: 116.5%


COLLIN COUNTY                 448,793   69.2%     2016: 124.2%    2018: 126.1%


DENTON COUNTY               380,857   67.4%     2016: 127.5%     2018:  128.8%



- Collin County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 67.3%
- Denton County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 64.3%

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GREATER AUSTIN


TRAVIS COUNTY                553,290    64.7%     2016: 115.9%     2018: 114.3%


WILLIAMSON COUNTY        262,240    69.6%     2016: 129.1%     2018: 125.9%


HAYS COUNTY                     97,143    63.6%     2016: 134.6%     2018: 121.8%
(Sorry! Didn't put together a spreadsheet for Hays)


- Travis County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 64.65%
- Williamson County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 67.7%
- Williamson County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 59.5%

(Also, I had put Williamsons votes yesterday at 258k when it was actually 247k. Just to clarify)

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SOUTH TEXAS (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


HIDALGO COUNTY             187,893    48.0%     2016: 108.3%     2018: 123.8%


NUECES COUNTY               111,059    52.5%     2016: 106.4%    2018: 118.1%


CAMERON COUNTY             96,335    44.0%     2016:  104.6%   2018: 123.7%



- Nueces County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 52.34%

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BEXAR COUNTY                 680,598    57.2%     2016: 115.4%     2018: 123.8%



- Bexar County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 57.2%


As of this hour, El Paso County hasn't posted their final EV report. I'll make sure to update this post when they release it

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New Mexico has 93% of 2016 turnout right now and Ds still have +14% in banked votes. If Indies lean biden, NM could be a bigger lead than many thought.

New Mexico
Dems 48.9%
Reps 34.9%
Other 15.9%

New Mexico was never going to be competitive without third parties screwing with the totals, and I'm surprised more people didn't realize that from the start.

Sounds a lot like Minnesota

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What is it with folks in this thread ignoring the Indy/NPA/NPP votes? I'm getting real sick of it


EDIT: Ugh, I started an empty quote chain. Less empty quotes, more answers!

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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1322636964890333185

Really makes yesterday's complaining of young voters not turning out seem silly.