New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So, uhh...

Is that in response for Sanders' lead, Buttigieg's sudden rise, Biden's plummet or Gabbard's 6%?

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Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

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At what time exit polls will be released? 8 PM I'm right?

In 2016, initial exit poll numbers starting trickling in at around 7:13 PM. I would assume, like Iowa, they get adjusted based on first & final wave of poll closures.


And speaking of which, I went back to CNN's 2012/2016 coverage to get an idea of when precinct updates should be coming. Hopefully, this will be much handier than when I did this for Iowa.

The three winners were declared as soon as all polls closed. Bernie better hope for a projection in the 30-60 minutes or we'll probably be waiting until the morning for a winner.

2016 was pretty uniform in D/R reporting, so look at those a little loosely. I just went by when either party arrived to that percentage. And in both years, it didn't reach 99% for around 8-12 hours after midnight


Eastern time

2016
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:04     10% precincts in
  8:57     20% precincts in
  9:23     30% precincts in
  9:52     40% precincts in
10:12     50% precincts in
10:28     60% precincts in
10:50     70% precincts in
11:32     80% precincts in
12:30     90% precincts in

2012
  7:54     10% precincts in
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:23     Second/third place projections
  8:30     20% precincts in
  8:53     30% precincts in
  9:10     40% precincts in
  9:27     50% precincts in
  9:51     60% precincts in
10:15     70% precincts in
10:56     80% precincts in
11:37     90% precincts in

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I have a (very) nagging feeling that there's gonna be a bunch of "bUt ThE yOuNg PeOpLe ArE gOnNa VoTe LaTeR" comments if Bernie doesn't win tonight.

Preparing to revist this thread later in the week if that's the case

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I have a (very) nagging feeling that there's gonna be a bunch of "bUt ThE yOuNg PeOpLe ArE gOnNa VoTe LaTeR" comments if Bernie doesn't win tonight

Well no, cause the voting has already ended when a winner is declared.  Captain obvious to rescue.  

Clearly, it'll be meant to mock the people saying it earlier today and as these exit polls are coming out.

Would it make you feel better if I rephrased it as "But Atlas told me Bernie would win because young people were gonna vote later in the day?"

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Can the Van Jones discussion move to another thread, please?

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So much fatalism with 3% of the vote in.

It's like very few felt this was gonna be a close race

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https://twitter.com/mollyhc/status/1227402560966926336

Remember that Warren endorsed Hillary Clinton despite being closer ideologically to Sanders. Does she now endorse another Liberal woman in Amy Klobuchar? What a big deal that would be if Warren does drop out.

Warren endorsed Clinton within a week of the final primary contest though

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Buttigieg looks like he's gunning for a 1-2-3-4 strategy before Super Tuesday

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LETS GO! SCREW YOU STEYER! RACE BAITING DOUCHEBAG RICH A-HOLE!

Save that fervor for when he actually drops out

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CNN's precinct updates looking very similar to 2012. Here's around we should see the next few updates

9:27       50% precincts in
9:51       60% precincts in
10:15     70% precincts in
10:56     80% precincts in
11:37     90% precincts in

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is everyone focused on DDHQ's updates rather than CNN's right now?

I know CNN is slow and steady, but DDHQ is too quick to update and not quick enough in fixing errors. Instant gratification, I guess

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Is everyone focused on DDHQ's updates rather than CNN's right now?

I know CNN is slow, but DDHQ is too quick to update and not quick enough in fixing errors. Instant gratification, I guess

We like instant gratification on election night on Atlas...

Plus CNNs website doesn't seem to work well for me in Chrome.   

Fair enough

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2% are what separate Atlas between pages of "Bernie wins!" posts or "But Atlas told me Bernie would win!"posts

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2% are what separate Atlas between pages of "Bernie wins!" or "But Atlas told me Bernie would win!"posts

bUt ThE yOuNg PeOpLe ArE gOnNa VoTe LaTeR

Why you!!

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I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

The 2016 version had a feeling of "magic" and populist change that this incarnation doesn't. I'm not sure if it's because the party as a whole has acquiesced somewhat to his policies or lack of freshness, but there hasn't been many moments from him this time that's on par with the "America" ad (For example). It's like he's gone from "Agent of change" to "Elder statesman" in 4 years. We'll see when we get to more Hispanic electorates and his potential/supposed surge with them, but it's a shell of the hip-new campaign of 2016 with rarely-discussed ideas and 100% grassroots campaigning.

And I'm saying that as a solid Bernie supporter then and now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

The 2016 version had a feeling of "magic" and populist change that this incarnation doesn't. I'm not sure if it's because the party as a whole has acquiesced somewhat to his policies or lack of freshness, but there hasn't been many moments from him this time that's on par with the "America" ad (For example). It's like he's gone from "Agent of change" to "Elder statesman". We'll see when we get to more Hispanic electorates and his potential surge with them, but it's a shell of the hip-newcomer of 2016 with rarely-discussed ideas.

And I'm saying that as a solid Bernie supporter then and now.

I'm not sure I agree. I think his 2016 support was naturally inflated because of all of the anti-Clinton supporters flocking to him with no other natural option. What he has now is his true base of support, but it looks weak compared to a never-really-existant coalition of rural working class whites, young educated members of the middle class, and assorted other Clinton skeptics.

I agree with that. A huge chunk of his support was anti-Clinton rather than pro-Bernie. I just wish it was more than the 25/30% or so that it appears now

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CNN at 84% reporting while DDHQ is at 82.5%

First time in the night CNN's reporting has beaten DDHQ to the punch?

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Almost in a snap, the news narrative has flipped to "Bernie won the popular vote in 2 of 2 states"

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Has any presidential candidate ever won any primary with less than 26% of the vote.  I found a couple examples of candidates winning with 27%, but no one lower than Sanders tonight as far as I can tell. (Santorum won the Iowa caucus with ~24%.)

Going through the primaries now, but here's the 1976 Massachusetts Democratic primary (per Wikipedia)


Scoop Jackson     22.34
Morris Udall         17.73
George Wallace    16.73
Jimmy Carter       13.86
Fred Harris            7.57
Sargent Shriver     7.24
Birch Bayh            4.75
Ellen McCormack   3.50
Milton Shapp         2.95
Uncommitted        1.33
Lloyd Bentsen       0.05

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Imagine telling this forum in early October that, at any point during the primaries:

1. Pete Buttigieg would get more delegates than Elizabeth Warren
2. Amy Klobuchar would get more delegates than Joe Biden

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My way-off predictions

Sanders       31%   (-5)
Buttigieg      25%   (-0.5)
Warren        14%   (-5)
Klobuchar    14%   (+6)
Biden          12%   (-4)
Others          4%   (+8)

At least I got Pete's numbers right!

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Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

It's probably easier to say all he needs to do is win SC. That's been this forum's basic narrative of the February primaries anyway

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I guess we're not getting the remaining 5% of the vote tonight?

Nah. I think they'll start trickling in throughout the morning/early afternoon

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No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

So it can be as eventful as 1976 or boring as 1996.

Does that make Bloomberg the Jerry Brown of this primary?