IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

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I am loving these posts saying Iowa is an impossible lift for Democrats nowadays. It has several urban centers, and the liberal turnout in 2016 was utterly abysmal, making it appear more Republican than one may think. The user PAK Man said that Iowa just really hated Hillary Clinton; they didn't love Trump. You can see that through his approval ratings in Iowa.

It's also over a year before we really start to get a clear picture of what will be happening. People thought Iowa was solidly in the bag for Democrats in 2016 at this point in the cycle in 2015. That was after Iowa Democrats had one of their most disastrous midterms ever.

Now Iowa Democrats hold 3/4 of the US House seats and a good chunk of the statewide offices that were up in 2018, only losing some narrowly. That does not scream "dead" to me.

Tom Miller would be a bad candidate because a. he's old and probably doesn't want to be a Senator b. I would guess he has never had to seriously campaign with how abnormal his landslides are. There are plenty of options: remember, Bart Brentley was also considered unbeatably titanium despite the impending six year itch and Joni Ernst was just some Some Dude State Senator who castrated pigs.

Of course, Boblark stuck his foot in his mouth when he insulted farmers along with that clown Grassley, who is a saint of Iowa (and the Windsor Heights Dairy Queen). Ernst had it easy from there. Democrats could potentially whip a candidate out of nowhere and still have success, as long as said some dude candidate is a farmer.

Now Ernst has to run on being a Trump lackey in a state he is divisive in. Can she be beaten? Yeah, Democrats have a lot of potential factors going for them - and as said before, things can change greatly.

Atlas Democrats are writing this seat off far too soon, refusing to think of possibilities. Or the variable future. But what else is new? Blue Texas, apparently?

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For what it's worth - and I haven't gone through every single page of this - I think Liz Mathis would be a great candidate for senate. But my dream candidate is J.D. Scholten.

Polling shows Ernst with high approval, but I do think she's vulnerable. Ernst looks good because she's very "folksy" and has rural Iowa appeal. But when you actually listen to her, you see how bad she actually is. Iowans, though, are willing to overlook that if you're a so-called "nice" person. Also, you have to be pro-ag. And I mean REALLY pro-ag.

Democrats would be smart to get somebody not from Des Moines. Oh rural Iowans hate Des Moines with a passion. They constantly see them as anti-farmer. I'm sure other states are like this (western Nebraska probably hates Omaha, and I know downstate Illinois people hate Chicago) but it just seems excessive here in Iowa.

The difference between the Western Nebraska vs. Omaha rivalry and the Iowa and Illinois rivalries is that Omaha does not have anywhere close to enough power to overwhelm Western Nebraska. As a result, we have the state perpetually run by angry rich white ranchers that probably think they will instadie if they step east of 72nd in Omaha.

In fact, there is only one Democrat in the legislature that represents anywhere in NE-03! He's in Grand Island.

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Don't worry, the Democratic establishment can triage the Senate because their anointed boy, Biden, will make McConnell come to the center through reasoned talks and some good ol' bipartisanship (and as we know, the B in LGBT stands for bipartisan so both parties who are involved in these Very Serious Talks are clearly LGBT-friendly).

This recent news may throw a wrench in their plans, though...

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1133838706530496512

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Ernst is a goner. Safe D.

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The Castrating Fascist's days in power are numbered. Numbered to end January 3, 2021, to be exact.

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This "scandal" seems like a nothingburger to me - Greenfield's campaign is just simplifying her biography to make it more streamlined; "I am a small businesswoman" gets straight to the aspect of the candidate that they want you to remember than "I worked at X company for a while, rose up, then worked at Y company".

Does it take away attention from voters bothering to look up her records at those companies? Possibly, but I think diverting attention away from any potential negatives about a candidate is the natural action from any campaign.

...and looking into this further, it seems that this really is a nothingburger: This local news article concludes that what Ernst was attacking Greenfield for was normal business for a real estate company. It's just spun in the most negative light; again, normal stuff to do when attacking your opposition.