Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Tartarus Sauce]

This was the best result of last night other than winning the House. God bless the People’s Republic of Madison.

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Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

That is indeed a fun fact, although we are talking in very relative terms here. It looks like the UW precincts still vote over 70% Democratic.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.

It's worth noting that in 2008, Wauwatosa and West Allis voted for Obama by nearly the same margin while he was romping throughout the state, 52.6-46.4 and 52.5-45.9 respectively. Evers significantly outperformed Obama's Wauwatosa margins, but West Allis has remained essentially the same. I wonder if Democrats will eventually be able to get double digits margins in West Allis as well.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I think this race is lean Neubauer imo. Maybe I'm wrong?

Based on all the information we have, that would be fair.

Yeah, Hagedorn has been getting tons of negative press and has failed to receive the backing of groups that almost always back conservative judges.

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Ugh this is way too close.

I would think things actually look better for Hagerdorn considering where the vote is outstanding.

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Neubauer leads by 11,000 out of 967,000 votes with 76% of precincts in.

997,000 votes were cast in Dallet-Screnock.

Are we sure Neubauer is still favored?

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I think Hagedorn has this. Ugh.

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im not calling the race but I was told that the D had this in the bag 1 hour ago when she was losing Kenosha by 5.(ik its -2 now)

They should have, Hagedorn is a terrible candidate. It’s shocking that it’s this close.

[Tartarus Sauce]

What are the chances theres a recount?

Probably guaranteed at this rate.